Electric vehicles will cost more to run than petrol vehicles after October

[Interested in farming]

Earlier this year, the London-based Institution of Structural Engineers published updated design guidance for car parks.
The wide-ranging document covers all structures where cars can be parked — including those on multiple levels, underground or within residential and office buildings — and how they are designed, built and maintained. The guidance has been written for all stakeholders involved in car park design.
One potential issue relates to the load of what we drive. According to the institution, the average vehicle’s weight has increased from 1.5 metric tons in 1974 to nearly 2 metric tons in 2023.
In a statement, it said the reason behind the weight increase was “due to electric and hybrid batteries and the size of cars increasing.”
“This extra load and the changing fire safety requirements are all considerations not just for new car parks, but for existing structures too,” it added.

EVs are heavier, that's not in question. It's the inaccurate myth that EVs produce 2000 times more emissions that Diesel exhaust.

A mk1 Golf was around 750 to 970kg. A Mk8 TDI is around 1600kg an ID3 is around 1740 to 1936kg. A Ford Ranger (the best selling farm double cab) weighs 1841 to 2283 so has all the diesel emissions AND the tyre particulates. Like for like EVs aren't always massively heavier. The problem so far as pointed out by Harry M is that EVs so far have focused on big expensive models and with the media pushing range anxiety bigger batteries than needed are being fitted.

 

[Farmer_Joe]

I weighed tyres with full tread and down to ware bars I’m sure it was about 500 Grammes but that was 195 50 15, I would imagine the larger tyres on a Tesla would be more like 1kg of tread over its life. So say 10k it’s not a right lot of loss per mile! Heavier cars definitely eat tyres faster thats just physics.
A whole life totally unbiased calculation would be good on a similar size electrical and Ice car, we all know lithium down not grow on trees but neither does oil problem is everyone has an incentive to stiff the figures.

no matter how magical or how many rainbows electric cars make, due to cost, depreciation and inability to maintain it my self like all ice cars I can’t see me having one anytime in the near future.

 

[Interested in farming]

I weighed tyres with full tread and down to ware bars I’m sure it was about 500 Grammes but that was 195 50 15, I would imagine the larger tyres on a Tesla would be more like 1kg of tread over its life. So say 10k it’s not a right lot of loss per mile! Heavier cars definitely eat tyres faster thats just physics.
A whole life totally unbiased calculation would be good on a similar size electrical and Ice car, we all know lithium down not grow on trees but neither does oil problem is everyone has an incentive to stiff the figures.

no matter how magical or how many rainbows electric cars make, due to cost, depreciation and inability to maintain it my self like all ice cars I can’t see me having one anytime in the near future.

That's really the point. An EV was and probably is my best option but not for everyone. Think it's important that we get real info on costs etc. butmits become some kind of culture war now.

 

[Dave645]

Might that possibly be because there are so few EVs in town, what happens when 90% are looking for chargers desperately.

The same no doubt was said when the first cars came along about how was everyone going to get fuel.
problems will be fixed, we tend to solve problems as we need to, we have never been good at spending money on stuff years in front of needing to do.. Yet plans to update the grid have long been in the works are they as fast as we need, not sure.

most families in cities with cars that can do 200 miles will charge/ fuel up, once a week some less, some more, places of work are now starting to put in chargers, my brother works at a place that has staff chargers and he fills his EV once a week at that charger and he doesn’t charge at home ever. He could charge multiple times a week if he needed but he has no need. He can charge at home but only with a 3 pin plug so he opted to not fit a charger at home as he has good access to charging at work.


the transition is never going to be overnight even if 100% of new cars were EV right now the transition on the roads as a % would still be slow.
about 130k new cars each year 41 million vehicles on the road even if EV sales were 100% now of that 130k it will take a long time to replace every vehicle on the road with an EV, so don’t panic.
https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...e-licensing-statistics-july-to-september-2023

At the current rate of increase from 1.5% of vehicles are EV to 2.3% in one year, how many years will it take before ever car is EV? Decades at best. And while not everyone can charge at home a lot can and staging charging to grid capacity will be a thing.
As will trickle charging in car parks etc.

 

[TripleSix]

A friend of mine just leased a Polestar, he's mainly charging at home on an EV tariff at 7p/KW

That's cheap motoring!

 

[Dave645]

There are a few factors most forget, this transition is going to take time even in a best case, our need for fossil fuels was 100%, moving our economy away from that will take decades, and not just one or 2 more like 4 or more, then you look at fossil fuel predictions of supply etc do the maths, at some point you have to plan for crude oils production to fall, and the need to find alternatives to it, if doing so will take decades best case. Then when should we start?
as we run out of crude oil? or decades before we are predicted to run out of it, or it go into shorter supply?
Which is the bigger problem have an world economy 100% linked to fossil fuels and not making the transition when they were still cheap and plentiful, or after they start to go in short supply? Then try to make a multi decade transition away from them while they are in ever shortening supply?

fail to plan is a plan to fail.
The transition is essential if you cannot see that you’re not living in touch with reality, it’s always better to plan forward especially when you rely so heavily on something.

Quote

How long is the world's oil supply going to last?​

It's difficult to know how much oil is actually left on the planet and there’s quite a bit of disagreement on when exactly we’ll run out. However, as of 2023, there should be enough oil left to meet global demand for at least 27 more years.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/run-out-of-oil.htm

so if that is correct not sure if it is, but let’s take that as a possibility, 27 years to wean off transport from oil, and it will take decades to just build that number of EV vehicles, Huston we have a problem, we need to start now or we are in deep doo, doo.

the great thing is as we do ramp up that oil will last longer so making the transition now help extend the time line we have to work with, but the slower we take the bigger the potential problems with supply maybe.
And how bad is not getting fuel at the pump, compared with you can charge a car from solar if needed. As problems go.

big picture stuff means the transition is essential even when you take climate change off the table.

 

[Dave645]

A friend of mine just leased a Polestar, he's mainly charging at home on an EV tariff at 7p/KW

That's cheap motoring!

Yep depending on the EV kWh per mile, as little as 2p/ mile. Most of my friends that have one say they are hundreds a month better off, they drive far more miles than me.

 

[its yourself]

A friend of mine just leased a Polestar, he's mainly charging at home on an EV tariff at 7p/KW

That's cheap motoring!

My Ioniq 5 costs 9€ to fill up overnight.
The last fast charge which was a week ago cost 27€.
We have a hybrid Toyota too.
Every time the engine kicks in I feel I'm wasting money.

 

[Dave645]

I weighed tyres with full tread and down to ware bars I’m sure it was about 500 Grammes but that was 195 50 15, I would imagine the larger tyres on a Tesla would be more like 1kg of tread over its life. So say 10k it’s not a right lot of loss per mile! Heavier cars definitely eat tyres faster thats just physics.
A whole life totally unbiased calculation would be good on a similar size electrical and Ice car, we all know lithium down not grow on trees but neither does oil problem is everyone has an incentive to stiff the figures.

no matter how magical or how many rainbows electric cars make, due to cost, depreciation and inability to maintain it my self like all ice cars I can’t see me having one anytime in the near future.

I think your not alone by being worried about servicing etc, it’s a valid point and like all new stuff it gets harder to service as time go on, big picture most do not service there own cars but likely what you can service didn’t include the brains of even ice cars, more like suspension brakes etc oil changes etc. those items exist on EV’s for the most part, brakes suspension etc, but there engine is a bit more like the electronics of modern ice cars, dealer only for the most part, it’s get a laptop out stuff. Which for mechanic brains like me a possibly you, are often where we draw the line. Yes you can maybe do swopping if you can find a good video to show how, but it’s not inside your normal wheel house, of servicing.

 

[Interested in farming]

Reality is though that 'servicing' is vastly different with an EV. End of the day the big things with a 'service' are oil, filters, plugs, belts and brakes. All of which are pretty much non existent on an EV - aside from brakes which are lasting well over 100k miles. I've picked this form the states because they are obsessed by lube services.

https://www.sheehynissanofmanassas.com/servicing-your-nissan-leaf/

Its inspect and brake fluid change every other service.

No timing belt.
No clutch
No DPF
No engine oil
No gear box oil
No Dual mass fly wheel
No spark plugs
No oil filter
No diesel filter
No exhaust

Repair is a different matter and yes when the electronics go its a different skill set but the kids coming up now will be swapping modules out and working lap tops like we changed brake pads.

I'm not an EV evangelist, they definitely don't work for some but they are going to need servicing more akin to a fridge or dish washer than a 'car'.

 

[BrianV]

Reality is though that 'servicing' is vastly different with an EV. End of the day the big things with a 'service' are oil, filters, plugs, belts and brakes. All of which are pretty much non existent on an EV - aside from brakes which are lasting well over 100k miles. I've picked this form the states because they are obsessed by lube services.

https://www.sheehynissanofmanassas.com/servicing-your-nissan-leaf/

Its inspect and brake fluid change every other service.

No timing belt.
No clutch
No DPF
No engine oil
No gear box oil
No Dual mass fly wheel
No spark plugs
No oil filter
No diesel filter
No exhaust

Repair is a different matter and yes when the electronics go its a different skill set but the kids coming up now will be swapping modules out and working lap tops like we changed brake pads.

I'm not an EV evangelist, they definitely don't work for some but they are going to need servicing more akin to a fridge or dish washer than a 'car'.

Does this not point to in time garages & all they employ becoming a thing of the past, seems unlikely there’s enough business keeping EVs on the road to justify employment, all those things you mention need to be produced & fitted by some one, same with petrol stations with shops, it’s that law of unintended consequences.

 

[suffolksmallholder]

A friend of mine just leased a Polestar, he's mainly charging at home on an EV tariff at 7p/KW

That's cheap motoring!

Yes, SIL has similar.
He is of the ‘tech-gen’, used to work for apple and has taken those skills to another level in cyber security.
The car, he says; whats not to like?
Having had a RR Evoque and all the built in hassle, this is the complete opposite
SS

 

[Farmer_Joe]

Reality is though that 'servicing' is vastly different with an EV. End of the day the big things with a 'service' are oil, filters, plugs, belts and brakes. All of which are pretty much non existent on an EV - aside from brakes which are lasting well over 100k miles. I've picked this form the states because they are obsessed by lube services.

https://www.sheehynissanofmanassas.com/servicing-your-nissan-leaf/

Its inspect and brake fluid change every other service.

No timing belt.
No clutch
No DPF
No engine oil
No gear box oil
No Dual mass fly wheel
No spark plugs
No oil filter
No diesel filter
No exhaust

Repair is a different matter and yes when the electronics go its a different skill set but the kids coming up now will be swapping modules out and working lap tops like we changed brake pads.

I'm not an EV evangelist, they definitely don't work for some but they are going to need servicing more akin to a fridge or dish washer than a 'car'.

Ha ha when you read that list they do sound very appealing! Much less moving parts I suppose

 

[Cheesehead]

Reality is though that 'servicing' is vastly different with an EV. End of the day the big things with a 'service' are oil, filters, plugs, belts and brakes. All of which are pretty much non existent on an EV - aside from brakes which are lasting well over 100k miles. I've picked this form the states because they are obsessed by lube services.

https://www.sheehynissanofmanassas.com/servicing-your-nissan-leaf/

Its inspect and brake fluid change every other service.

No timing belt.
No clutch
No DPF
No engine oil
No gear box oil
No Dual mass fly wheel
No spark plugs
No oil filter
No diesel filter
No exhaust

Repair is a different matter and yes when the electronics go its a different skill set but the kids coming up now will be swapping modules out and working lap tops like we changed brake pads.

I'm not an EV evangelist, they definitely don't work for some but they are going to need servicing more akin to a fridge or dish washer than a 'car'.

I have nothing against EVs but I don't think you truly appreciate how much of a nightmare electronics can be especially on intermittent faults and seem to think modules would be just a few £££.

Electronics and looms can be a nightmare and rarely does it work out just plugging a computer in and getting the answers and can be the case of spending hours trying to trace and find the fault which can end up being something minor like chaffed with or a £5000 control unit which you then have to try and explain to the owner why a 20p component is costing them £5000.

All the while making sure your colleagues don't need to use the big crook because you slipped and it wasn't isolated fully or because you were working on the battery pack or charging system.

Ha ha when you read that list they do sound very appealing! Much less moving parts I suppose

While there are less moving parts hence things that could lop a finger off or break something you do have a force that can kill if you're distracted. Which unlike AC doesn't release you.

 

[chickens and wheat]

Yes but apparently all EV have flat /nearly flat batteries, so little chance of a fatal shock.

The chance of dying by crashing will still be much much higher than electric shock from the car. So do a risk assessment and don't own any car

 

[Interested in farming]

Does this not point to in time garages & all they employ becoming a thing of the past, seems unlikely there’s enough business keeping EVs on the road to justify employment, all those things you mention need to be produced & fitted by some one, same with petrol stations with shops, it’s that law of unintended consequences.

I worked for a dealer group and I still am in contact with people who are in servicing.

There's the up to 4 year old market who go to main dealers and the over 4 year old market who are back street garages. Main dealers will do ok with 'inspection' servicing and warranty work its not really a huge change for them - they aren't really doing the 80k miles stuff. Independents are going to see a decline in 'spanner' work no question. there will be repair stuff - motors, cv joints, steering racks etc but less of it.

Yes jobs will be lost (who do you think promotes all the anti ev stuff) component manufacturers are already downsizing but jobs will move elsewhere. 'Petrol stations' won't really be that affected, they have mostly diversified enough that they make more from coffee etc. When I was on the road I was in garages every day but hardly ever to fill up.

 

[BrianV]

I worked for a dealer group and I still am in contact with people who are in servicing.

There's the up to 4 year old market who go to main dealers and the over 4 year old market who are back street garages. Main dealers will do ok with 'inspection' servicing and warranty work its not really a huge change for them - they aren't really doing the 80k miles stuff. Independents are going to see a decline in 'spanner' work no question. there will be repair stuff - motors, cv joints, steering racks etc but less of it.

Yes jobs will be lost (who do you think promotes all the anti ev stuff) component manufacturers are already downsizing but jobs will move elsewhere. 'Petrol stations' won't really be that affected, they have mostly diversified enough that they make more from coffee etc. When I was on the road I was in garages every day but hardly ever to fill up.

Seems to me jobs in all walks of life including farming are seen as moving elsewhere, with AI etc I've a feeling mass unemployment & all the grief that goes with that isn't so very far away, they talk of people having a living wage instead whether they work or not but always fail to say who is going to foot the bill.

 

[Interested in farming]

I have nothing against EVs but I don't think you truly appreciate how much of a nightmare electronics can be especially on intermittent faults and seem to think modules would be just a few £££.

Electronics and looms can be a nightmare and rarely does it work out just plugging a computer in and getting the answers and can be the case of spending hours trying to trace and find the fault which can end up being something minor like chaffed with or a £5000 control unit which you then have to try and explain to the owner why a 20p component is costing them £5000.

All the while making sure your colleagues don't need to use the big crook because you slipped and it wasn't isolated fully or because you were working on the battery pack or charging system.



While there are less moving parts hence things that could lop a finger off or break something you do have a force that can kill if you're distracted. Which unlike AC doesn't release you.

I saw 3 or 4 cars in our workshop back in the day stuck for weeks due to diagnosing electronics so yes I'm aware. I'm also aware of EGRS situated under manifolds, timing chains that need bumpers removed to access, water leaks etc. As for not isolating, well I worked in enough factories to make sure we employed competent people who worked safely and isolated stuff.

Not seen solutions mechanics couldn't find a problem for.

However that's all utterly irrelevant as what I'm commenting on is people servicing cars themselves which on EVs there isn't really a need for.

 

[D. Ian Kidson]

Earlier this year, the London-based Institution of Structural Engineers published updated design guidance for car parks.
The wide-ranging document covers all structures where cars can be parked — including those on multiple levels, underground or within residential and office buildings — and how they are designed, built and maintained. The guidance has been written for all stakeholders involved in car park design.
One potential issue relates to the load of what we drive. According to the institution, the average vehicle’s weight has increased from 1.5 metric tons in 1974 to nearly 2 metric tons in 2023.
In a statement, it said the reason behind the weight increase was “due to electric and hybrid batteries and the size of cars increasing.”
“This extra load and the changing fire safety requirements are all considerations not just for new car parks, but for existing structures too,” it added.

Wouldn't be all that difficult to increase the width of marked parking spaces by 25% and allow folk to actually open their doors to get themselves in and out without contorting themselves - Would need to increase parking charges by a similar amount to maintain income though....

 

[Cheesehead]

Yes but apparently all EV have flat /nearly flat batteries, so little chance of a fatal shock.

The chance of dying by crashing will still be much much higher than electric shock from the car. So do a risk assessment and don't own any car

That's why I'm hoping for an Edison converted HGV so it doesn't hurt so much when a car crashes into me.

I saw 3 or 4 cars in our workshop back in the day stuck for weeks due to diagnosing electronics so yes I'm aware. I'm also aware of EGRS situated under manifolds, timing chains that need bumpers removed to access, water leaks etc. As for not isolating, well I worked in enough factories to make sure we employed competent people who worked safely and isolated stuff.

Not seen solutions mechanics couldn't find a problem for.

However that's all utterly irrelevant as what I'm commenting on is people servicing cars themselves which on EVs there isn't really a need for.

I don't know I guess a lot depends on the area there was enough work for my cousin's boss to send him for training and to get certified along with another on EVs not that I believe my cousin still works for him after he through a temper tantrum and something else I believe after he asked for time off when his daughter was rushed into A&E.

Things do still go wrong with some although Tesla have supposedly got better which I believe left several stuck in the lane though their go to fix did just use to be to put it on charge and say the battery went flat because they had the display configured wrong.

Personally I am rather looking forward to the Edison/Deboss pick-up conversion.