Everything’s devalued by 30%

[warksfarmer]

This situation won’t ever end until there’s both a vaccine and antidote. Even then getting things moving again will take years.

Unreported yet the property market is knackered. No buyers. No credit and as yet nothing reported.

Car trade ruined pretty much overnight. Lease companies can’t pick up end of lease vehicles because there’s nowhere to send them for sale.

I don’t care what anybody says there will be a food shortage due to the supply chain. We are going to see gassing of chicken and pork sheds even though there is people to feed. The middle man industry in the food chain is knackered. We are already seeing root crop planting down by 20%. Milk job is finished without intervention. Soft fruit? What soft fruit as the imported stuff will fade away soon enough.

When hundreds of thousands of people start defaulting on their mortgages, the banks could recall debt on farms and business to prop their domestic property loans up resulting in lots of farms on the market devaluing land by as much as 50%.

This country is a supply logistics setup in the main and the setup is now failing us. The government are talking about manufacturing in the uk again but they are going to have to financially support it to get it going. Then ultimately it’ll fail in years to come when China can supply at half the price because their standard of living is poor compared to ours.

The problem is in the UK and many other 1st world countries our standard of living has exceeded our ability to maintain it in a time of need like now.

devils advocate - discuss ........

 

[RAF]

Everything happens for a reason . This day was always coming. We had the drought, deluge now we got the plague , famine next

 

[Tomr10]

My neighbor has a car on there drive that should of been picked up over a month ago. They wanted more money from them also.

 

[Yale]

I’ve said this all along and unfortunately you are right.

The furlough scheme has given everyone a false sense of security.

Those of us who were either children in the 70’s or remember it well will have an understanding.

The millennials where everything has been given to them on a plate will have a shock.

I don‘t like to doom monger but I can’t see it going any other way.

 

[neilo]

That's what happens when you build everything based on a service industry economy, eventually the house of cards comes tumbling down.

Maybe everything has been overvalued by 30%?

In other news, I was speaking with a guy that does a lot of machinery & ag finance the other day and he reckoned they were busier than ever, just working from home obviously. I'm sure I read a bit in an ag paper the other day, written by a shiny suited land agent, that there was tremendous demand for ag land.....

 

[d williams]

This situation won’t ever end until there’s both a vaccine and antidote. Even then getting things moving again will take years.

Unreported yet the property market is knackered. No buyers. No credit and as yet nothing reported.

Car trade ruined pretty much overnight. Lease companies can’t pick up end of lease vehicles because there’s nowhere to send them for sale.

I don’t care what anybody says there will be a food shortage due to the supply chain. We are going to see gassing of chicken and pork sheds even though there is people to feed. The middle man industry in the food chain is knackered. We are already seeing root crop planting down by 20%. Milk job is finished without intervention. Soft fruit? What soft fruit as the imported stuff will fade away soon enough.

When hundreds of thousands of people start defaulting on their mortgages, the banks could recall debt on farms and business to prop their domestic property loans up resulting in lots of farms on the market devaluing land by as much as 50%.

This country is a supply logistics setup in the main and the setup is now failing us. The government are talking about manufacturing in the uk again but they are going to have to financially support it to get it going. Then ultimately it’ll fail in years to come when China can supply at half the price because their standard of living is poor compared to ours.

The problem is in the UK and many other 1st world countries our standard of living has exceeded our ability to maintain it in a time of need like now.

devils advocate - discuss ........

Is it standard of living or is it waste
I think people have lost their way with the cheap money that’s been around for to long they need to prioritise where money needs spending
Not in cotsa coffee not in the numerous fast food places not on phones and waste of time gadgets
To much waste

 

[warksfarmer]

In other news, I was speaking with a guy that does a lot of machinery & ag finance the other day and he reckoned they were busier than ever, just working from home obviously. I'm sure I read a bit in an ag paper the other day, written by a shiny suited land agent, that there was tremendous demand for ag land.....

He’s chatting shite. Having spoken to a couple of bank managers from different banks they are busy financing used equipment because the external finance houses won’t do a 7 yr finance deal on a 5 yr old machine! New prices are miles out of line with reality.
When the shite hits the fan with food then the machinery manufacturers will soon enough start to vanish or they’ll start dealing direct cutting the dealer network out of the equation and then lapsing on service and backup.

 

[Yale]

It’s a massive game of musical chairs worldwide and the music has stopped!

What we will now witness is who has no chair.

 

[shakerator]

This situation won’t ever end until there’s both a vaccine and antidote. Even then getting things moving again will take years.

Unreported yet the property market is knackered. No buyers. No credit and as yet nothing reported.

Car trade ruined pretty much overnight. Lease companies can’t pick up end of lease vehicles because there’s nowhere to send them for sale.

I don’t care what anybody says there will be a food shortage due to the supply chain. We are going to see gassing of chicken and pork sheds even though there is people to feed. The middle man industry in the food chain is knackered. We are already seeing root crop planting down by 20%. Milk job is finished without intervention. Soft fruit? What soft fruit as the imported stuff will fade away soon enough.

When hundreds of thousands of people start defaulting on their mortgages, the banks could recall debt on farms and business to prop their domestic property loans up resulting in lots of farms on the market devaluing land by as much as 50%.

This country is a supply logistics setup in the main and the setup is now failing us. The government are talking about manufacturing in the uk again but they are going to have to financially support it to get it going. Then ultimately it’ll fail in years to come when China can supply at half the price because their standard of living is poor compared to ours.

The problem is in the UK and many other 1st world countries our standard of living has exceeded our ability to maintain it in a time of need like now.

devils advocate - discuss ........

print print print

the financial system will be protected at all costs , with hyperinflation being the result

it was going to happen before covid anyway

 

[warksfarmer]

It’s a massive game of musical chairs worldwide and the music has stopped!

What we will now witness is who has no chair.

Some countries like the UK will be hit harder than others though. We have been sitting on top of a pyramid now with nowhere to go, where as the likes of NZ and Korea were only half way up the pyramid, but still have somewhere to go!

 

[neilo]

He’s chatting shite. Having spoken to a couple of bank managers from different banks they are busy financing used equipment because the external finance houses won’t do a 7 yr finance deal on a 5 yr old machine! New prices are miles out of line with reality.
When the shite hits the fan with food then the machinery manufacturers will soon enough start to vanish or they’ll start dealing direct cutting the dealer network out of the equation and then lapsing on service and backup.

Hasn't that always been the case? A finance man (salesman) always talks the job up to induce confidence. An auctioneer will always tell you that trade will be great tomorrow so bring your stock in. A fert/seed salesman will always tell you there is unprecedented demand and price will be going up tomorrow. A land agent that makes a living from commission will always talk up land value.

Used car salesman by and large.

 

[kfpben]

Hasn't that always been the case? A finance man (salesman) always talks the job up to induce confidence. An auctioneer will always tell you that trade will be great tomorrow so bring your stock in. A fert/seed salesman will always tell you there is unprecedented demand and price will be going up tomorrow. A land agent that makes a living from commission will always talk up land value.

Used car salesman by and large.

And as for the tup salesman....!?

 

[neilo]

And as for the tup salesman....!?

Worst of the lot.

 

[shakerator]

This situation won’t ever end until there’s both a vaccine and antidote. Even then getting things moving again will take years.

Unreported yet the property market is knackered. No buyers. No credit and as yet nothing reported.

Car trade ruined pretty much overnight. Lease companies can’t pick up end of lease vehicles because there’s nowhere to send them for sale.

I don’t care what anybody says there will be a food shortage due to the supply chain. We are going to see gassing of chicken and pork sheds even though there is people to feed. The middle man industry in the food chain is knackered. We are already seeing root crop planting down by 20%. Milk job is finished without intervention. Soft fruit? What soft fruit as the imported stuff will fade away soon enough.

When hundreds of thousands of people start defaulting on their mortgages, the banks could recall debt on farms and business to prop their domestic property loans up resulting in lots of farms on the market devaluing land by as much as 50%.

This country is a supply logistics setup in the main and the setup is now failing us. The government are talking about manufacturing in the uk again but they are going to have to financially support it to get it going. Then ultimately it’ll fail in years to come when China can supply at half the price because their standard of living is poor compared to ours.

The problem is in the UK and many other 1st world countries our standard of living has exceeded our ability to maintain it in a time of need like now.

devils advocate - discuss ........

Already happening
Record deaths in April
Only 30% directly attributable to CV19
Lockdown kills
Cure worse than the disease

 

[robin banks]

You are talking about deflation. Which is way worse than inflation. We had it in 08 in Ireland. Everyone stops buying because it will be cheaper next year. And sure enough it is cheaper next year. Until the clever ones start buying up the assets.
Because this is a global problem much bigger than the 07 08 banking crisis every country is going to start printing money. To create inflation to combat the deflation. Because most central banks will and are doing this it doesn't have much bad side effects. As compared to just one country doing it. Normally you devalue your currency by doing so. But that is just devalued against another currency. But as we are all printing at the same time it doesn't cause devaluation.
So who I wonder benefits most from inflation. I am thinking and hoping real assets like land and gold. For me it's land as my wifes finger is very attached to the only gold I have ever bought.
Farm land in Ireland didn't drop much with the banking crisis. It just took the development crazy price land out of it. Which had distorted the price.
We could easily have a great depression due to this. But central banks can stop a depression and we just have a recession.

 

[quattro]

can banks call in a loan unless you’ve defaulted in repayment

 

[jondear]

Not a good time to be all doom and gloom!
And I'm a pessimist usually!

 

[warksfarmer]

You are talking about deflation. Which is way worse than inflation. We had it in 08 in Ireland. Everyone stops buying because it will be cheaper next year. And sure enough it is cheaper next year. Until the clever ones start buying up the assets.
Because this is a global problem much bigger than the 07 08 banking crisis every country is going to start printing money. To create inflation to combat the deflation. Because most central banks will and are doing this it doesn't have much bad side effects. As compared to just one country doing it. Normally you devalue your currency by doing so. But that is just devalued against another currency. But as we are all printing at the same time it doesn't cause devaluation.
So who I wonder benefits most from inflation. I am thinking and hoping real assets like land and gold. For me it's land as my wifes finger is very attached to the only gold I have ever bought.
Farm land in Ireland didn't drop much with the banking crisis. It just took the development crazy price land out of it. Which had distorted the price.
We could easily have a great depression due to this. But central banks can stop a depression and we just have a recession.

This is far more reaching than just deflation.

 

[robin banks]

Already happening
Record deaths in April
Only 30% directly attributable to CV19
Lockdown kills
Cure worse than the disease

Do you not think a new disease is going around and very few people are being tested for it and you have a spike in deaths. That the cause may actually be the new disease. I know of 5 cases in the UK of people with covid only one was tested as she was a doctor. All 5 were pretty sick for a couple of days but we're Young fit and healthy and had not gone to hospital. But if they had took a turn for worse and died at home they would of been part of the 70% not attributed directly to covid as they were not tested.

 

[puppet]

can banks call in a loan unless you’ve defaulted in repayment

I think you have protection but certainly can call in an overdraft at any moment.