Fertiliser Price Tracker

[it's not over]

CAN 27N 205

 

[APJ]

It's down to how quick they run the tower. As of late, Lithan's quality has improved greatly. 36 Meter spread now. Whereas CF are ramping up their production, more production = smaller prill.

I know chaps that would take Lithan over Nitram if it was the same price.

Rather Lithan to spread than cf to be honest lot less lumps in it, shame they play such a hard game with there pricing strategy too.

 

[Brisel]

Holy cow i should have bought a load for 2022 then...
mine cost £197 June 2020 by the way.

That was a good buy. CF or imported? When did you pay for it? £200/t CF Nitram back in July for spot delivery, Jan 21 payment.

 

[Fertzilla]

That was a good buy. CF or imported? When did you pay for it? £200/t CF Nitram back in July for spot delivery, Jan 21 payment.

Presume it would be Nitram on 28 day terms.
Lithan was £20/t below new season.

 

[Farma Parma]

That was a good buy. CF or imported? When did you pay for it? £200/t CF Nitram back in July for spot delivery, Jan 21 payment.

Nitram Yeah paid for it in Sept. £197
same stuff previous year was £242 off my head i think.
I know ive said it loads of times but anyone buying it now really needs to do there homework.
if you havnt got storage when new seasons prices are underway then make storage, money has never been so cheap to buy fert way in advance neither. Yes i know thats easy for me to say as ive got storage all year round.
Iam a mino in this farming game but seem to get as good a deal on these critcial inputs as huge 5000ac outfits.
Having a long standing good relationship with key suppliers i think is vital also.

 

[Farma Parma]

Presume it would be Nitram on 28 day terms.
Lithan was £20/t below new season.

pretty much was but i got an extra month ontop no charge

 

[Farma Parma]

maybes there is equally as good a Nitrogen Fert as Nitram is sold as but i have zero issues with it.
No spreading or storage issues. Its one of them things often better the devil you know eh.
I dont agree to the cartel like hold they have over us in mid summer but the odds are as they have been again now
it will only get dearer as the season go's on so you either jump in or dont.

 

[Brisel]

Nitram Yeah paid for it in Sept. £197
same stuff previous year was £242 off my head i think.
I know ive said it loads of times but anyone buying it now really needs to do there homework.
if you havnt got storage when new seasons prices are underway then make storage, money has never been so cheap to buy fert way in advance neither. Yes i know thats easy for me to say as ive got storage all year round.
Iam a mino in this farming game but seem to get as good a deal on these critcial inputs as huge 5000ac outfits.
Having a long standing good relationship with key suppliers i think is vital also.

I don't want to turn this into a "look at us, we got the best deal," but there is a lot of truth in what you've posted.

Fertiliser information | AHDB

There are historical price graphs on the AHDB link above and in most years (but not all), the early season prices are the best. The sellers will want to keep the logistics going so will price pay later deals cheaper than the cost of borrowing money.

2008 and 2015 were the two years where the market fell later on. In 2008 we had long conversations with our buying group who advised us to buy. They were right at the time but Gleadell helped crash the price by importing quality urea in early 2009. In 2015 my buying group advised us to hold and they were right to do so.

 

[marshbarn]

I don't want to turn this into a "look at us, we got the best deal," but there is a lot of truth in what you've posted.

Fertiliser information | AHDB

There are historical price graphs on the AHDB link above and in most years (but not all), the early season prices are the best. The sellers will want to keep the logistics going so will price pay later deals cheaper than the cost of borrowing money.

View attachment 935281
2008 and 2015 were the two years where the market fell later on. In 2008 we had long conversations with our buying group who advised us to buy. They were right at the time but Gleadell helped crash the price by importing quality urea in early 2009. In 2015 my buying group advised us to hold and they were right to do so.

To simplify your graph, do not buy when AN is in the £300 / tonne region
And do buy when in the £200/tonne region.

 

[Farma Parma]

I don't want to turn this into a "look at us, we got the best deal," but there is a lot of truth in what you've posted.

Fertiliser information | AHDB

There are historical price graphs on the AHDB link above and in most years (but not all), the early season prices are the best. The sellers will want to keep the logistics going so will price pay later deals cheaper than the cost of borrowing money.

View attachment 935281
2008 and 2015 were the two years where the market fell later on. In 2008 we had long conversations with our buying group who advised us to buy. They were right at the time but Gleadell helped crash the price by importing quality urea in early 2009. In 2015 my buying group advised us to hold and they were right to do so.

in simple terms yeah thats pretty much correct.
i take advice from those that know the game far better than me & every year ive done this for roughly the last 10maybes its paid off. just saying there seems too be a bit of a trend wouldnt you agree

 

[JCfarmer]

What do we think prices will be like for Nitram for next season cropping, this June/July with the higher wheat price?

 

[Brisel]

What do we think prices will be like for Nitram for next season cropping, this June/July with the higher wheat price?

It won’t be cheaper than this year, will it?

 

[JCfarmer]

I can't see it, again I looked back to the start of this thread in 2013 and in June of that year Nitram was around £260 or more. After a poor 2012 harvest and high wheat price here and elsewhere. More wheat goes in world wide, more demand for fert.

 

[fudge]

It won’t be cheaper than this year, will it?

As others imply it’s the relative cost to grain that matters to me. Selling grain forward is pretty unfashionable but I usually sell a bit when I order the fert. If it doesn’t stack up for me I don’t buy the urea. It’s an easier equation than guessing what’s going to happen in world markets. No strategy works all the time if I am in charge mind.

 

[Farma Parma]

i'll kick mesel for not doing what i did 3 year ago & bought an extra wagon load

 

[teslacoils]

rumored CF will be pulling again soon.

Always shocks me that we entertain anything that comes out of Cfs mouth.

 

[Eartha Kitt]

There must be quite a few still needing to buy nitrogen. At the start of the season, there were plenty on here saying they were sitting tight and saying leave it....

 

[Farma Parma]

@Parma You should try some Lithan sometime

Again update for anyone still wanting to buy. UREA is the most expensive it has been since 2015 currently for March shipments.

With the lack of UREA coming into the country, there could be a shortage of Ammonium Nitrate. Imports are incredibly bullish and it's rumored CF will be pulling again soon.

If you need FEB/MAR... Buy.

well maybes i might have no choice going forward who knows if folks saying its fine then i might look at it

 

[Eartha Kitt]

It won’t be cheaper than this year, will it?

Highly unlikely.

 

[Northdowns Martin]

Any liquid N prices bouncing around at present?