Fertiliser Price Tracker

[Planet Bee]

Go on give us your best guess if the fundamentals
dont change .

the fundamentals are too volatile to see much beyond 60 days. We trade with what we know. I accept that you need to make decisions on known unknowns too; weather, disease, etc.

Today, you should be able to buy Urea for around £1,000/mt in bags. If it's inhibited, you could make the calculation that AN should be £750/mt. If it's any cheaper, fill your boots!

Would you sell wheat forward to hedge the fertiliser purchase?

 

[SilliamWhale]

the fundamentals are too volatile to see much beyond 60 days. We trade with what we know. I accept that you need to make decisions on known unknowns too; weather, disease, etc.

Today, you should be able to buy Urea for around £1,000/mt in bags. If it's inhibited, you could make the calculation that AN should be £750/mt. If it's any cheaper, fill your boots!

Would you sell wheat forward to hedge the fertiliser purchase?

I might have a go at wheat being £300 t and N being £1000.

But that is a doubling of grain price and tripling of N price compared to last years budget.

 

[Gedd]

Are the cf plants still operating and producing N in this country and still being funded by goverment

 

[Steevo]

the fundamentals are too volatile to see much beyond 60 days. We trade with what we know. I accept that you need to make decisions on known unknowns too; weather, disease, etc.

Today, you should be able to buy Urea for around £1,000/mt in bags. If it's inhibited, you could make the calculation that AN should be £750/mt. If it's any cheaper, fill your boots!

Would you sell wheat forward to hedge the fertiliser purchase?

Go on….give us a guess!

For my money I think @SilliamWhale probably isn’t too far wrong. If urea came out are £800 I could (sadly) see quite a bit being bought by those that can afford to.

 

[Planet Bee]

the fundamentals are too volatile to see much beyond 60 days. We trade with what we know. I accept that you need to make decisions on known unknowns too; weather, disease, etc.

Today, you should be able to buy Urea for around £1,000/mt in bags. If it's inhibited, you could make the calculation that AN should be £750/mt. If it's any cheaper, fill your boots!

Would you sell wheat forward to hedge the fertiliser purchase?

Go on….give us a guess!

For my money I think @SilliamWhale probably isn’t too far wrong. If urea came out are £800 I could (sadly) see quite a bit being bought by those that can afford to.

I did!

£800 for Urea? Not on my radar.

 

[teslacoils]

There will be terms.

You might not like the numbers but there'll always be an offer. Well, at least from an imported perspective.

Can't speak for the domestic AN producer though.

Going to have to look at contract paperwork very closely. Noone wants to have a great price if it's from a country that may decide to suddenly stop exporting etc.

 

[teslacoils]

Go on….give us a guess!

For my money I think @SilliamWhale probably isn’t too far wrong. If urea came out are £800 I could (sadly) see quite a bit being bought by those that can afford to.

Urea was £840 when I asked a few weeks ago to look at getting some for next year. Sadly, no crystal ball applied and none bought.

I think just getting some booked and hoping the wheat prices catch up is option a. Option B is a cropping tweek as I do have a decent bit to carry over.

Urea at a grand, or plant some peas? Both could tax the sanity.

 

[Planet Bee]

Going to have to look at contract paperwork very closely. Noone wants to have a great price if it's from a country that may decide to suddenly stop exporting etc.

that's an issue for sure. However, unless your counterparty has a clear link to the source (producer) on their sales contract, or a force majeure clause heavily weighted in their favour, you should be ok as most distributors sell "open origin". Means that if they sell you "Urea" it can come from anywhere.

If, for example they sold you "Egyptian Urea" and Egypt banned exports or there was a problem there, they could claim FM and therefore can exit their obligations. Normally, it would have to be from a nominated supplier, rather than country.

It's a pretty deep legal area and doesn't happen, thankfully, too often.

 

[aangus]

Will urea be ok to spread in this dry weather? or better to wait for some rain

 

[Happy hillbily]

Milk cows in Saudi don't they?

But shipping cattle feed from the other side of the globe is not exactly cheap!

 

[Steevo]

Will urea be ok to spread in this dry weather? or better to wait for some rain

It'll be fine. It's not really THAT hot. If you walk through a field of wheat at 9am in shoes, by the time you get halfway across you'll be soaked through to your socks. That dew is enough to do good imo and it'll even start the chemical conversion process too i think. I've been putting urea on the last couple of days and can't see a problem. Wet spell coming in on Wednesday so be pleased to have it all on by then and the crop can start properly using it.

 

[yellow belly]

Will urea be ok to spread in this dry weather? or better to wait for some rain

should be no problem next week when it gets cooler
april will have some wintery weather before it ends

 

[Steevo]

I did!

£800 for Urea? Not on my radar.

I was pretty sure the question was what will new season fert open at (i.e. June).....rather than what can you buy it for today. You said there would be terms which I assumed to be terms for season open in June.

Given the current situation, is the likelihood then that there will be *no* terms available for new season AN on which to base cropping plans?

There will be terms.

You might not like the numbers but there'll always be an offer. Well, at least from an imported perspective.

Can't speak for the domestic AN producer though.

Now some smart ass will likely point out that if you can buy it today the season has already opened....!

 

[teslacoils]

Will urea be ok to spread in this dry weather? or better to wait for some rain

Get it on. Next week will be cool so it's going nowhere.

 

[robbie]

I’d of gladly taken urea but no guarantee of delivery from 2 firms.

I've got a load booked that's floating about somewhere on a boat. It was ordered for march and I've been told they have no idea when it's coming if at all.
I've got an which I'm making stretch to keep giving everything a little, either it'll arrive and I'll use it or I'll end up with lean N amounts on crops but some "cheap" N in the shed for next year if and when it does arrive.

 

[willy]

We would all be better off staying in bed than paying over £500 for nitrogen... The problem is people will climb over themselves for it. Just all back off and let cf come to us

 

[Cowabunga]

We would all be better off staying in bed than paying over £500 for nitrogen... The problem is people will climb over themselves for it. Just all back off and let cf come to us

They couldn’t care less. They can re-sell their gas contract for massive profit. Which is why they shut their AN factories in the first place.

 

[willy]

They couldn’t care less. They can re-sell their gas contract for massive profit. Which is why they shut their AN factories in the first place.

So let them. We are not holden to them and out put could be the same with less product but higher price. As long as e don't all become lemmings again

 

[Cowabunga]

So let them. We are not holden to them and out put could be the same with less product but higher price. As long as e don't all become lemmings again

It is probably not that simple.

 

[ajd132]

We would all be better off staying in bed than paying over £500 for nitrogen... The problem is people will climb over themselves for it. Just all back off and let cf come to us

That is a wildly simplistic view…..
i have never even had CF fertiliser!