Fertiliser Price Tracker

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Will it? Russia the main source for Europe I believe. As an aside a fellow TFF'er was offered urea today for £700/t don't know terms.

Morocco. And Iran, but its been left of the chart for some reason (99% of statistics on the internet are made up).

Russia (more like Belarus) is a major potash producer, but far from the only source.


Screenshot 2022-06-20 at 15.59.24.png
 

lloyd

Member
Location
Herefordshire
If gas prices stay at these levels then we will see European production scale back (similar to last year). Egyptian urea has bounced $60/t since Friday. The market seems to be on a firmer footing again.
Were you heading for a number 2 before you heard this news? :D
Another bad day with wheat prices ,unless the global price stabilises
fertiliser prices will only be going one way and it wont be up.
 
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Planet Bee

Member
Trade
If gas prices stay at these levels then we will see European production scale back (similar to last year). Egyptian urea has bounced $60/t since Friday. The market seems to be on a firmer footing again.
The European (and UK) gas picture doesn't look great at this moment

The ability for the US to export was restricted after the outage at the Texas plant which it seems the region was relying on to balance the obvious shortfall from Russia. It's unknown exactly when this facility will be back on stream

Not wishing to tell anyone's grandmother to suck eggs, but most global producers will know this and adjust their prices to suit. It's how markets function. Same with the predominantly EU based nitrate producers; they'll optimise their output.

With straight Urea on farm at around £740-£760, AN ought to be in the region of £560; at best £600 to account for any loss factor. With inhibited Urea at say £800 (assuming a premium over straight), AN would absolutely have a ceiling at £600.

According to the advice from AHDB's RB209, with the current cereal crop prices, you'd expect demand destruction (reduced application) with AN prices over +/- £550/mt. Sorry, but don't have the calculations in my head for grass...but I imagine that ferts win over feed any day.

As I heard earlier today, it's gonna be a urea year...
 

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