Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 1 November 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans higher on short covering, although market still concerned over spread of African swine fever in China. Corn lower on higher Ukrainian production/export numbers. Wheat higher, although fund/speculative selling remains active on slow exports.
• US Midwest weather forecast has a rain system for the northwest over the weekend and the middle of next week. Frequent precipitation is seen for the southwest over the coming next 10 day. Temperatures are seen a bit above average, turning cooler next week.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast has drier air returning to most areas through to the middle of next week in the west, a light to moderate system brings rain to the east Saturday and first half of next week. Temperatures will be running above average.
• Brazil weather continues in a mostly rainy pattern with coverage still around 75%.
• Argentina weather has light to moderate rainfall for the southern half, with things dry in the rest of the region through the weekend. Hit and miss rains are seen for next week with coverage around 65%.
• Harvest is off to a dismal start in the eastern states of Australia, with early figures from GrainCorp providing a stark insight into the impact of drought on farm production and this year’s winter wheat crop.
• China is likely to buy a wider range of processed vegetable oils and animal feed meals on global markets in the coming weeks, as the US/China trade war continues to reduce supplies of soybeans for China’s oilseed processing industry.
• Ukrainian corn exports prices are at a 4-year low after a bumper crop with shipments since 1st July up 63% y/y. The Ukrainian Grain Association raised its corn production estimate last week by 16% to 35mln t.
• Ukrainian farmers have almost completed winter wheat sowing for the 2019 harvest, seeding around 6mln ha vs 5.8mln t a year earlier, Ukraine’s Ag Minister reported.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £171.00/t – down £1.05/tonne from previous close

London May ’19 Settle £173.95/t – down £0.70/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €198.50 – down €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.3900/bushel – up 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6325/bushel – down 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0050/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1310

GBP USD 1.2865

EUR GBP 0.8835

EUR USD 1.1375