Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 10 October 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower, although dryness concerns in Brazil seen underpinning markets. Corn marginally lower as funds were seen adding to their net short position. Wheat lower on lack of a global weather problems and talk of lower US export demand.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 3rd October managed funds trimmed their Chicago wheat short by 8224 contracts (now seen 56475 contracts short), and further trimmed long KCBT wheat position by 1950 contracts and long Minneapolis wheat position by 680 contracts.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 3rd October managed funds extended their Chicago corn short by 9759 contracts (now seen 143201 contracts short), and further trimmed their long Chicago soybean position by 562 contracts (now seen 27758 contracts long).
• Brazilian soy plantings are seen at only 5% complete, compared with 10.4% last year at this time, with temperatures upward of 100 degrees in many areas of the North causing a slow start to the planting season.
• Brazil’s central/south summer corn plantings were seen 29% complete vs 23% last week and compared with 37% last year. Late planted soybeans in Brazil could reduce planted area for corn and increase risk of lower production for Brazil’s second corn crop.
• Argentina’s corn planting progress was seen at 17% complete vs 27% last year, and the slowest start since 2013 following rains.
• SovEcon has reduced its estimate of Russia’s 2017 maize production to 13.7mln t, from 15.2mln t previously, citing poor yields from heat and dryness in the southern/central regions for the decline.
• SovEcon raised its estimate of Russia’s 2017 wheat production by 2.2% to 82.9mln t, up from 81.1mln t previously.
• Russian wheat exports are seen up 12% YoY for the 2017-18 season so far, at 9.65mln t, according to the Russian Ag Ministry.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £143.00/t – down £0.60/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €164.00 – down €1.25/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4950/bushel – down 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3600/bushel – down 7.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1185
GBP USD 1.3180
EUR GBP 0.8935
EUR USD 1.1780