Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 12 January 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soy lower, but well off the low, as market battles unfavourable conditions in Argentina/good growing conditions in Brazil – corn down on Chinese import revision on DDG’s and higher Brazilian crop numbers – wheat lower on heavy spec selling on beneficial rains moving into the US plains, and easing concerns in Ukraine/Russia, as heavy snows provide protection for crops.
  • USDA out today at 5pm. Market expects little change on US/Global numbers – may slightly lower US/Brazilian corn crops and stocks, but may raise US soy crop. All eyes will be on US winter wheat plantings which are expected to be 2mln acres lower y/y.
  • Argentine Ag ministry lowers estimate for 2016-17 soybean production from 58.8mln t to 56mln t.
  • A substantial snow layer has protected Ukrainian and Russian winter crops from severe frosts which came last weekend.
  • UkrAgroConsult report that the Ukraine has expected around 10.8mln t of wheat in the first half of the 2016-17 season – about 70% of its potential export volume.
  • China has increased punitive tariffs on imports of US DDG’s from levels first proposed last year.
  • French farm office AgriMer lowered its forecast for French soft wheat stocks at the end of 2016-17 season to 2.6mln t (2.7mln t previously), raising its non-EU exports by 100,000t to 4.8mln t (albeit still 63% below last season’s figure).
Last Trade Settle:
London May ’17 Settle £146.25/t – up £0.80/t from previous close
Paris May ’17 Settle €171.25/t – down €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’17 Corn Settle $3.5725/bushel – down 1.00c/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’17 Wheat Settle $4.1875/bushel – down 8.00c/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1525
GBP US$ 1.2260
EUR GBP 0.8670
EUR USD 1.0630
 

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