Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 12 June 2018

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets close – soybeans traded down to an 11-month low following on from CFTC showing considerable fund selling last week. Corn traded down to 4-month low on continuing trade fears between US/China. Wheat traded slightly lower following little news other than poor weekly export sales at 14m bu.
  • GASC tenders today for 15-25/7/18 delivery, for an undisclosed volume. US wheat export inspections for the 1st week of the new crop year resulted in 14m bu, considerably lower than this time last year.
  • USDA US crop progress report: corn fell 1% to 77% gd/exc (67% last yr), with emergence at 94% (92% 5 yr avg). Soybeans fell 1% to 74% gd/exc (66% last yr), with emergence at 83% (69% 5 yr avg), and plantings at 93% (85% 5 yr avg). Spring wheat unchanged at 70% gd/exc (45% last yr), with emergence at 94% (89% 5 yr avg). Meanwhile winter wheat harvest progressed from 5% w/e 3/6/18 to 14% complete (16% last yr and 10% 5 yr avg).
  • CFTC to 5/6/18 showed that managed money funds increased CBOT wheat length by 968 contracts to total 16286. Increased KCBT length by 6894 contracts to 57756, but sold length in MNE by 3989 contracts to total 840.
  • CFTC to 5/6/18 showed managed money funds sell 43.88% of CBOT corn position, reducing total length by 88828 contracts to 113599. Further sold 32.49% of total CBOT soybeans position, reducing length by 34799 contracts to 72299.
  • Coceral amended lower their forecasts yesterday for EU soft wheat production by 1.7m mt to 138.8m mt, taking all-wheat total to 147.7m mt (MARS @ 149.1m mt and USDA @ 150.4m mt).
  • Coceral amended higher their forecasts yesterday for EU barley production by 500k mt to total 60.8m mt (MARS @ 61m mt and USDA @ 61.5m mt).
  • Grain focus continues to be around todays USDA S&D report (1700GMT), as trade expectations look for a move in EU/US 17/18 export figures, as both are seen too high and subsequent impact on ending stocks. Further focus will surround 18/19 Aus/Black Sea/Russia production figures, with wide ranging trade expectations across the board.
  • US tariff announcements will take place on 15/6/18, which continues to be a concern, following conflicting reports from key information points.
Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £160.30/t – down £0.30/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €184.75 – down €1.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT July ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6725– down 10.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT July ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1450 – down 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1352

GBP USD 1.3390

EUR GBP 0.8805

EUR USD 1.1793
 

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