Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 14 March 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on record large SAm crops, weak technical market - corn lower on continued fund liquidation following USDA report, lower crude - wheat lower on talk of increased chances of rain across the US south plains/lower Russian export prices.
• Informa updated their US acreage forecasts – corn 90.774mln ac (up from 90.489mln previously – 94.004mln last year), soy 88.668mln ac (up from 88.647mln previously – 83.433mln last year), wheat 45.589mln ac (down from 45.762mln previously – 50.154mln last year).
• Egypt’s strategic wheat reserves stand at over 3mln t, and are expected to double with the start of the local harvest in April. Current reserve level is enough to last at least four months.
• Saudi Arabia purchased 735,000t of hard wheat (1st May – 20th July arrival), likely to be sourced from the EU (Germany/Baltic) North America, South America or Australia.
• Brazilian farmers have harvested 56% of the 2016-17 soybean crop a/o 11th Sat, up from 52% last year and 47% as the 5-yr average. Second corn crop plantings totalled 88% by 9th March, compared to an average 83% for this time of year.
• Grain SA reports that a big maize crop following recent rains, has pulled South African maize prices to 2-year lows, eroding farmers’ ability to pay for inputs for the new season.
• China’s 2016-17 wheat imports seen at 4.5mln t (USDA at 4mln t) due to lower crop/poor quality, analysts tell Chinese conference. However, domestic corn consumption is seen at 230mln t (USDA at 237mln t) due to bird flu/slower growth in pig industry.
• Parliament has passed the Brexit bill, paving the way for the Government to trigger Article 50, so the UK can the process of leaving the EU. Peers backed down over the issues of EU residency rights and a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal.

Last Trade Settle:
London May ’17 Settle £148.20/t – down £0.95/t from previous close
Paris May ’17 Settle €171.75 – down €2.00/t from previous close
CBOT May ’17 Corn Settle $3.6100/bushel – down 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT May ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3050/bushel – down 10.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1400
GBP USD 1.2125
EUR GBP 0.8775
EUR USD 1.0640