Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 14 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower and closed below key support levels on talk of favourable SAm weather. Corn lower in narrow trading range, although talk of lower Brazilian/Ukrainian crops may offer support. Wheat lower on talk of lower Russian prices, and high global supplies.
• NASS reported 83% of the corn crop harvested, up from 70% last week vs 92% last year and 91% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported 93% of the soy crop harvested, up from 90% last week vs 96% last year and 95% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US winter wheat crop was 95% planted, up from 91% last week, vs 94% last year and 95% as 5-yr average with 84% of the crop emerged, up from 75% last week, vs 83% last year and 83% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported the US winter wheat crop condition as 54% good/excellent, down 1% on the week, and lower than the 59% of a year earlier.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 10th November managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 14210 contracts (now seen 125025 contracts short), and also extended their short KCBT wheat position to 23526 contracts, while continuing to trim long Minneapolis position.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 10th November managed funds extended their Chicago corn short by 2861 contracts (now seen 205624 contracts short), but extended their long Chicago soybean position by 6126 contracts (now seen 46738 contracts long).
• SAm weather forecast has things quiet in Argentina through this week, with rains confined to the far north and south, while quiet in Southern Brazil until rains move in by the end of the week, with plentiful rains for the north. Temperatures below average for most areas.
• Brazilian soybean farmers had completed 57% of their planting for the 2017-18 growing season a/o Nov 9th according to AgRural, against the 5-yr average of 56% with the agency seeing the crop at around 110.2mln t, down from last season’s record 114.1mln t.
• Russian framers had harvested 137.2mln t of grain before drying and cleaning by Nov 10th, with an average yield of 3.01t/ha from 96.9% of the total area ministry data showed, compared with 120.7mln t with an average yield of 2.68t/ha a year earlier.
• Corn imports into Africa are slowing as several countries cut back on purchases following production recoveries across Southern Africa, with the FAO reporting imports are likely to decline by 1.9mln t, or 8% to just below 21mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £137.80/t – down £1.15/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €159.50 – down €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4225/bushel – down 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2425/bushel – down 7.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today
GBP EUR 1.1180
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