Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 16 November 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – soybeans higher as Chinese officials outline potential concessions to the US. Corn marginally higher on renewed optimism on the US/China trade front. Wheat higher on positive comments coming out of a grain conference being held in Geneva.
• US Midwest weather forecast has little in the way of precipitation for the region in the next week or more. Temperatures will be below average with some warming back to average.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast has little in the way of precipitation over the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be warming towards average into the weekend and first half of next week.
• Brazil weather forecast has close to average rains falling in most of Brazil’s growing regions over the near to mid-term.
• Argentina weather forecast still has a front bringing light to moderate rainfall into the weekend. Early next week looking dry with another front bringing light to moderate rains to most areas by the end of next week.
• China has delivered a written response to US demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, a move that could trigger more formal negotiations to resolve a withering trade war between the world’s top economies.
• Brazil’s record soy exports to China could grow further as the Asian nation’s trade war with the US boosts its demand for South American beans.
• Ukraine’s grain exports have already exceeded last season’s level and reached 16mln t thanks to large corn sales. Ag ministry has reported exports could rise to 42.5mln t in 2018-19, up from 39.4mln t last season.
• Russia’s Ag Ministry has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2018 grain crop by 1mln t to 110mln t, but left its forecast for 2018-19 grain exports unchanged at between 38-39mln t.
• Strategie Grains slightly raised its estimate for 2018-19 EU grain production by 600,000t to 279.1mln t. Corn production raised up to 60mln t and soft wheat production left unchanged at 127mln t, while durum wheat was raised by 100,000t, with barley cut to 56.1mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £169.00/t – up £1.80/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.75 – down €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle - $8.8875/bushel – up 5.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6750/bushel – up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0550/bushel – up 2.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1305

GBP USD 1.2810

EUR GBP 0.8840

EUR USD 1.1330