Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 17 July 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
  • US markets – soy closed up 15c/bu CBOT Nov17 on Friday as concerns remain with a hot forecast in central mid-west. Corn gained on weather and gd/exc ratings falling 3% to 65% and well behind last year on silking. Wheat saw little change on the close and has seen a small down move in over-night trading.
  • EU wheat exports has had a slow start to the season with the 1st 10 days only seeing 217k mt of shipments vs 860k mt last year, in a year with most estimates increasing exports, albeit it is very early days.
  • Hot dry conditions in the US persisted last week with spring wheat ratings @ 35% gd/exc (down 2% WoW vs 70% last year) with a similar weather formation to continue into this week.
  • AHDB released their first 17/18 UK plantings estimates report on Friday - UK wheat area @ 1.76m Ha (-3% YoY), UK spring barley @ 725k ha (+9% YoY), UK winter barley @ 428k ha (-1% YoY), England & Scotland OSR @ 553k ha (-4% YoY) and England & Scotland Oats @ 151k ha (+14% YoY).
  • In terms of variety; AHDB estimates NABIM Gp 1&2 to account for 40% of UK wheat area, the highest since 2006, while Gp3 estimated to account for 5% of wheat area and Gp4 estimated to see a decline @ 48% of total area.
  • £ continued to firm on Friday and over the weekend, having traded down to 1.1150 GBPEU in recent weeks, while UK winter barley harvest sees strong progress and OSR should move swiftly with a generally dry 1-week forecast.
Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £149.00/t – down £0.10/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €180.75 – down €0.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.895/bushel – up 7 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $5.3475/bushel – up 1.5 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1413
GBP USD 1.3069
EUR GBP 0.8757
EUR USD 1.1450
 

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