Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 19 April 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close –soy lower as meal/beans spreads weakened. Corn higher, as adverse weather will continue to keep producers idle (sowings) until late April. Wheat higher on forecast of less precipitation totals for the hrw wheat areas in the system later this week.
• US, Canadian and Mexican officials driving NAFTA renegotiations will meet in Washington this week, as pressure for a quick deal mounts, although officials say several contentious issues must still be resolved.
• Unless yields soar to record highs, the US is forecast to harvest the smallest corn crop in three years this summer, since the production volume may not be padded by a boost in plantings, as the intended acreage came in at an unexpectedly low 88mln acres.
• US southern plains weather forecast has no major changes - widespread, soaking rains seen into the weekend, quieting down early next week, before light to moderate rains enter the region at the end of next week. Temperatures seen running average to below average.
• US Midwest weather forecast looks to become more favourable, with the end of the week looking mainly dry through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, before light to moderate rains enter the region. Temperatures still seen running below average.
• South American weather forecast has in the 6-10 day period, light to moderate precipitation, with widespread coverage for Argentina, light to moderate rains for north Brazil and little elsewhere. Temperatures seen running average to above average in most of South America.
• US attaché in Australia, sees country’s wheat production at 24mln t for 2018-19, while barley production is expected to reach 9.5mln t, due to higher commodity prices and an expansion in the harvested area.
• Egypt aims to import 7mln t of wheat in 2018-19, at an average price of $220/tonne c&f in the financial year, according to a budget proposal document.
• Germany’s association of farm cooperatives forecast that the country’s 2018 wheat crop will fall 0.8% y/y to 24.29mln t, and that the rapeseed crop will increase 8.3% y/y to 4.62mln t, the association said in its second harvest forecast for 2018.
• £ sterling saw a fall in value of nearly 0.01 vs euro yesterday afternoon, as a lower than expected inflation rate of 2.5% Mar18 (Feb 2.7%) puts question marks over the previously expected BOE interest rate rise in May18.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £147.95/t – up £0.05/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €164.50 – unchanged from previous close
CBOT May ’18 Corn Settle - $3.8300/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT May ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.7525/bushel – up 9.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1465
GBP USD 1.4185
EUR GBP 0.8715
EUR USD 1.2370