Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 2 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on talk of increased Chinese soymeal demand. Corn higher with markets trying to bounce as funds neared a record net short position. Wheat virtually unchanged as market tried to bounce off recent contract low.
• US Midwest weather has no major changes with light/moderate rains seen for the east Thursday/Friday, with another system bringing rain to the east next week. Temperatures seen average/slightly below this week, but warming to above average for weekend/early next week.
• Southern Plains weather has no major changes as things remain quiet over the next 10 days with slight rains. Temperatures will be average/below average for this week, before warming to average/above average for the weekend/FH of next week.
• South American weather has no major changes as close to average rains seen in Argentina and Southern Brazil with soaking rains in Northern Brazil. Temperatures look to be below average for most areaS over the next 10 days.
• Rabobank estimates the 2017-18 Australian wheat crop at 20.9mln t, down from their previous estimate of 22mln t, and vs the USDA at 21.5mln t/ABARES at 21.6mln t.
• China and Russia have signed protocols which will allow wheat imports from Russia and signed other documents to push for trade and cooperation in agriculture.
• Ukraine’s grain exports for the season were seen at 13.5mln t, down 6% y/y at this time. Corn exports were just 1.7mln t, down 10% y/y, with wheat exports at 8.2mln t down 6% y/y.
• BoE releases the Interest Rate & Quantitative Easing decision @ 1200GMT today, as £ has firmed on a market impression of an increased interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, and statements from Michel Barnier regarding speeding up Brexit discussions.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £136.75/t – down £0.55 from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €159.50 – down €2.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4825/bushel – up 2.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.1800/bushel – down 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1375
GBP USD 1.3240
EUR GBP 0.8790
EUR USD 1.1640