Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 20 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher on rumours of possible Chinese buying with traders cautious of a drier trend in Argentina. Corn higher on rumours of China purchasing US corn/ethanol. Wheat higher on short-covering, with concerns mounting over the lack of rainfall in the HRW belt.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 14th November managed funds trimmed their Chicago wheat short by 16509 contracts (now seen 108576 contracts short) and also trimmed their short KCBT wheat position by 13102 contracts, while continuing to trim long Minneapolis position.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 14th November managed funds extended their Chicago corn short by 24932 contracts (now seen 230556 contracts short) but trimmed their long Chicago soybean position by 24188 contracts (now seen 22550 contracts long).
• Brazilian AgRural reported Brazil’s 2017-18 soy plantings 73% complete versus 73% last year and 68% as the 5-yr average. Regular rains recently, in most of Brazil, allowed for sowing activity to increase.
• Brazilian AgRural reported Brazil’s 1st 2017-18 corn crop 63% planted versus 79% last year and 65% as the 5-yr average. Again recent rains has allowed planting pace to increase after a period of dry conditions.
• China expects 2017 grain output at 600mln t with increases for wheat and rice production, but lower production for corn, according to the Ag Minister.
• BAGE estimated Argentine soy plantings 24% complete versus 12% last week. Total planted area seen unchanged at 18.1mln ha.
• French framers have almost finished harvesting this year’s maize crop, reported at 99% complete a/o Nov 13th. Soft wheat sowings were 95% complete compared with 90% the previous week, with 97% of the emerging crop reported in good/excellent condition.
• EU soft wheat exports in the 2017-18 marketing season had reached 7.5mln t a/o Nov 14th, down 23% from the 9.7mln t exported by the same stage last season. Imports were reported at 1.2mln t, up 3% y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £138.05/t – up £0.80/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €158.75 – unchanged from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4300/bushel – up 6.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2725/bushel – up 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today
GBP EUR 1.1240
GBP USD 1.3270
EUR GBP 0.8890
EUR USD 1.1800