Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 22 October 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close – Soybeans lower on reported cancellation of 300,000t of sales to China/unknown destinations. Corn lower on follow-through selling after poor sales data. Wheat higher on comments from a Rabobank report declaring Russian export pace ‘unsustainable’.
• For the w/e 16th October, CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago wheat short position by 92 contracts (now seen 16793 contracts short), while also extending their Kansas City wheat long position by 2361 contracts (now seen 28174 contracts long).
• For the w/e 16th October, CFTC report showed managed money switched their Chicago short corn position by 54186 contracts (now seen 20154 contracts long), while also trimming their Chicago soybean short position by 5033 contracts (now seen 36368 contracts short).
• For the w/e 11th October all-wheat sales running 18% behind y/y, shipments 25% behind vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase, corn sales 41% ahead y/y, shipment 80% ahead y/y vs USDA forecasting a 2% increase.
• US Midwest weather forecast is mostly dry this week and the weekend, rains look to be possible in the West. Temperatures continue to be running below average for the near to mid-term.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast is mostly dry this week with some rain possible into the weekend. Temperatures seen running below average.
• Brazil weather continues with soaking rains over the near to mid-term with coverage around 85%.
• Argentina weather looks for moderate rainfall early this week in most areas, with only BA and Entre Rios missing the bulk of the rains.
• Planting area for Argentina’s 2018-19 soy crop is seen at 17.5mln ha, the Secretary of Agriculture reported, higher than the 17.2mln ha planted for the 2017-18 season. Government also reported no expected change in the expected planting areas for wheat or corn.
• Morocco‘s government announced it would cut customs duties on soft wheat imports to 30% from 135% from November 1st, backtracking on a previous announcement to abolish the duty altogether.
• Farm office FranceAgriMer estimates 81% of the French grain maize harvested by Oct 15th vs 65% a week earlier, and compared with 47% a year ago. Also estimates 32% of French soft wheat sown vs 15% a week earlier.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £176.25/t – up £0.40/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €201.25 – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle - $8.5675/bushel – down 6.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6700/bushel – down 3.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.1475/bushel – up 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1325

GBP USD 1.3040

EUR GBP 0.8825

EUR USD 1.1510