Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 28 November 2017

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy higher although rumours of a potential slowdown in Chinese imports limited gains. Corn lower on weaker crude market & weak exports. Wheat lower (new contract lows) as weakness continues to be tied to cheap Black Sea values.
• NASS reported 95% of the US corn crop harvested, up from 90% last week vs 98% last year and 98% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported 92% of the US winter wheat crop emerged, up from 88% last week vs 92% last year and 92% as 5-yr average.
• NASS reported the US winter wheat crop condition as 50% good/excellent, down 2 points on the week, and lower than the 58% of a year earlier. Topsoil/subsoil moisture conditions also declined with adequate/surplus falling 4% and 3% respectively.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 21st November managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 90 contracts (now seen 108666 contracts short), and also extended their short KCBT wheat position by 10317 contracts, while continuing to trim long Minneapolis position.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 21st November managed funds trimmed their Chicago corn short by 20090 contracts (now seen 210466 contracts short), and also trimmed their long Chicago soybean position by 2406 contracts (now seen 20144 contracts long).
• AgRural report that Brazilian farmers had planted 84% of the estimated area of the 2017-18 soybean crop, advancing 11% on last week’s level. This compares with 83% last year and 79% as the 5-yr average.
• BAGE reported Argentine farmers had planted 34% of the expected 18.1mln ha of soybeans for the 2017-18 harvest, crop expected to reach 54.4mln t, although below average rains will complicate planting of late-sown beans in the central grain belt.
• SAm weather forecast has things fairly quiet first part of the week until a front brings some rains to the far west by the weekend. 6-10 day forecast sees rains confined to the west, with Argentina looking to see limited rainfall over next 10 days.
• China plans to subsidise grain transportation and storage facilities in the latest push by Beijing to modernise the world’s largest agriculture sector.
• SovEcon reported that Russian wheat export prices fell slightly last week due to stronger competition with wheat from the US and EU.
• The EU’s crop monitoring service (MARS) slightly raised its monthly estimate for this year’s grain corn yield in the EU to 6.92t/ha, up from 6.91t/ha previously – left wheat yield unchanged at 5.94t/ha.

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £140.60/t – down £2.15/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €157.00 – down €0.75/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.3875/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.0950/bushel – down 6.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1180
GBP USD 1.3305
EUR GBP 0.8940
EUR USD 1.1900