Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 29 November 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close higher on positive talk over this weekend’s US/China trade talks. Corn higher on higher soymeal prices, unharvested acreage concerns. Wheat higher (although Dec18 lower), led by rally in KCBT on talk that US may have sold wheat to Algeria.
• The US EPA has rejected requests from the corn lobby to reallocate biofuel volumes waived under its small refinery exemption program into its 2019 mandate, an agency official commented.
• Brazil’s weather forecast has close to average rainfall in most of the growing areas over the next 5 days, fairly dry weather is now seen in the southern parts in the 6-10 day period.
• Argentina’s weather forecast looks quiet for the rest of the week, the weekend and early next week.
• SovEcon reported it had upgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2018-19 grain exports to 43.2mln t from a previously expected 42.6mln t. It increased its wheat export forecast to 34.7mln t from 34.2mln t, but still expects a sharp decline in the pace of exports from December.
• President Putin said that Russia would supply soybeans and poultry meat to China and that the US had effectively ‘given up’ on that market.
• The imposition of martial law is not affecting Ukrainian grain exports from ports on the Azov Sea thus far and they can be switched to the Black Sea if necessary, Ukraine’s acting Ag Minister said.
• Ukraine’s 2018 grain harvest reached 68.2mln t a/o Nov 27th exceeding the previous forecast of 68mln t, the Ag Ministry reported.
• Ukraine’s grain exports had reached 17.6mln t a/o Nov 28th, up 7.2% y/y, primarily due to the expansion on corn exports, seen at 5.2mln t up 77% y/y. Barley exports reported at 3.0mln t, down 19% y/y with wheat exports reported at 9.0mln t down 6.8% y/y.
• Ukraine’s 2019-20 wheat plantings are expected to expand for the first time in four years with feed wheat prices climbing to a near four-year high, UkrAgroConsult reported, estimating growers will increase plantings by 2% to at least 6.6mln ha.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £173.25/t – down £0.25/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €199.75 – up €1.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle - $8.9050/bushel – up 15.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.6050/bushel – up 4.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.9750/bushel – down 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1240

GBP USD 1.2780

EUR GBP 0.8890

EUR USD 1.1365