Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 3 July 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets close –soybean lower on continued trade concerns. Corn lower on less threatening weather forecast. Wheat lower, as all markets seem to be affected by the trade war rhetoric
• NASS reported US winter wheat rating at 37% good/excellent, unchanged on the week, and vs 48% last year.
• NASS reported US corn crop rating at 76% good/excellent, down 1 point on the week, and vs 68% last year.
• NASS reported US soybean crop rating at 71% good/excellent, down 2 points on the week, and vs 64% last year.
• NASS reported US spring wheat crop rating at 77% good/excellent, unchanged on the week, and vs 37% last year.
• NASS reported US corn crop silking at 17%, up 12 points on the week, and vs 9% last year and 8% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US soybean crop blooming at 27%, up 10 points on the week, and vs 17% last year and 13% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US spring wheat crop headed at 58%, up 24 points on the week, and vs 56% last year and 48% as the 5-yr average.
• NASS reported US winter wheat harvest 51% complete, up 10 points on the week, and vs 51% last year and 49% as the 5-yr average.
• US Midwest weather forecast will see temporary relief to start the week, before a hot, muggy 4th of July. Low 90’s are expected in most of the region, with a cooler trend and less humid into the coming weekend.
• US Southern Plains weather forecast remains very warm with high pressure dominating. A brief ‘cool-down’ is expected this weekend with heat returning next week.
• Beijing is looking for Kazakhstan and others along the silk-road to diversify its sources of soybeans.
• Indian farmers have planted summer-sown crops on 16.5mln ha a/o June 29th, down over a fifth from a year earlier, government data showed. Sowings have been delayed due to lower rainfall in central and western parts of the country.
• Egyptian authorities have seized 45,000t of Russian wheat, which was infested with worms and insects, and was released for port months ago.
• Russian wheat export prices increased 1% last week according to IKAR, as support was partially due to the reduction in the French wheat crop.
• Slovakia expects a higher grain harvest than in 2017, with wheat the most frequently grown crop. Its estimate harvest will increase by 12% y/y, to almost 2mln t, with an average yield of 4.9t/ha.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £166.65/t – up £3.65/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €183.50 – up €1.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle - $3.5900 – down 12.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.9675 – down 19.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1315

GBP USD 1.3185

EUR GBP 0.8830

EUR USD 1.1650