Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 4 October 2017

ADM Agriculture

Member
Trade
Location
Lincolnshire
US markets – soy lower after private estimates raised yield/crop although drier Brazilian weather gave some support. Corn lower as crop ratings improve, although slower harvest pace/farm sales offers support. Wheat higher on sold position.

US Midwest weather sees no change with above precipitation for the region this week, before quieting down next week. Temperatures seen running from above average to average for the weekend, below average early next week, with frost threats in MN and northern IO.

US Southern Plains weather sees no changes as hit and miss rainfall is seen this week, with heavy rainfall in most areas moving into the weekend, quieter next week. Temperatures seen average to above average over next 10 days.

FC Stone raised its estimate of the average US corn yield to 169.2bpa, from 166.9 in its previous report, also raised soybean yield estimate to 49.9bpa, from 49.8 in its previous report.

US farmers are running out of options as delays on the Mississippi river (low water levels) are causing shipping backlogs, while grain storage on the river’s bank is filling up.

Russian wheat export prices rose last week, as farmers hold back on sales due to a strong currency and rising demand from shippers.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000t of Russian wheat for the Nov 5-15 position at prices marginally higher to the last purchase price ($212.75-213.80cif) – on a fob basis the one French cargo offered was about $10 too expensive.

Last Trade Settlement:
London Nov ’17 Settle £143.65/t – up £1.60/t from previous close
Paris Dec ’17 Settle €167.00 – up €1.50/t from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4950/bushel – down 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.4800/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1290
GBP USD 1.3280
EUR GBP 0.8850
EUR USD 1.1760
 

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