Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 5 February 2018

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soy lower on lower than expected US sales & talk of Argentinian rain. Corn marginally lower, although better than expected US sales. Wheat lower as higher US$ and lower US stocks/commodity prices may have weighed on wheat.
• US farmers this month will be closely watching new-crop corn and soy futures on the CBOT, as the price will influence planting decisions this spring, with new-crop values nearly identical on the board to a year ago.
• For w/e Jan 25th, US all wheat sales are running 11% behind last year, shipments 4% behind, with USDA projecting a 8% decline. Corn sales 20% lower vs a year ago, shipments 30% behind, with USDA projecting a 16% decline on the year.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 30th January managed funds cut their Chicago wheat short by 48645 contracts (now seen 96763 contracts short), also cut their short KCBT wheat position by 14065 contracts, and trimmed their long Minneapolis position by 29 contracts.
• CFTC reports showed that a/o 30th January managed funds cut their Chicago corn short by 88734 contracts (now seen 130942 contracts short) and cut their short Chicago soybean position by 59689 contracts (now seen 21849 contracts short).
• South American weather has limited rainfall for most of Argentina over the next 6-10 days in BA and La Pampa, with average rains seen in rest of country. Limited rainfall in southern Brazil over next 5 days, with close to average in north, close to average seen for all Brazil over the next 10 day while near average temperatures are seen for all of South America over next 10 days.
• Egypt purchased 180,000t of Russian wheat for 5-15 March18, at between $218.18-$220.28 C&F. Prices equate to about a $8/t rise on last tender (16 Jan) CIF – only other country to offer was Romania, with prices $7-10/t above traded levels.
• Russia has exported a record 31.5-31.9mln t of grain since the start of the 2017-18 marketing season, head of IKAR reported – wheat exports stood at 24.3-24.7mln t .

Last Trade Settlement:
London May ’18 Settle £137.60/t – down £0.40/tonne from previous close
Paris May ’18 Settle €159.75 – up €1.00/t from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6150/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close
CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.4675/bushel – down 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:
GBP EUR 1.1325
GBP USD 1.4125
EUR GBP 0.8825
EUR USD 1.2465