Gleadell Daily Grain Comment- 5th October 2015

[ADM Agriculture]

Daily Grain Comment

Monday 5th October 2015

• Chicago wheat saw losses of single figures on Friday and morning trade has seen little move today as Ukraine Ag Ministry last week put wheat production at 26.2m mt while Stats Canada put their total wheat crop at 26.06m mt (trade expectation 25.1m mt).
• Russian and Ukrainian dryness continue to be a concern within the market, delaying plantings ahead of winter, yet expectations of Russian wheat crop for this season of 61.4m mt are ahead of both USDA and general expectations which is putting a dampener on the bullish sentiment.
• UK export saw a better week last week on both Wheat and Barley yet domestic consumers did little across the week despite the increase in values on the London futures market over the last 2 weeks.
• EU Retail Sales are released this morning 1000BST, Australian Interest Rate Decision is made tomorrow 0430BST while US Balance of Trade figures are released tomorrow 1330BST. N.B China is on a 3 day National Bank Holiday until Thursday.
• The US sees a divergence on weather with rains generally forecast in the E ½ of the country in the 5-day. C & S Eur sees more rains in the 7-day with a wetter outlook for the UK. Russia and Ukraine continue to look dry in the 5 and 10-day. Argentina and Brazil both see rains generally into the weekend while E Aus also sees light rains in the 5-day.

Last Trade Settle:

London Nov ’15 Settle £115.55/mt – down £0.05 from previous close

London May ’16 Settle £123.85/mt – Up £0.75 from previous close



Paris Dec ’15 Settle €175.75/mt – Up €1.25 from previous close

Paris May ’16 Settle €188.25/mt – Up €1.75 from previous close



Currency this morning:

GBP EUR 1.3517

EUR GBP 0.7395

EUR USD 1.1259

GBP USD 1.5228