Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 11 March 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybean lower despite talk of recent Chinese purchase, as slowing global economies and lack of a US/China trade deal not seen as helping prices. Corn marginally lower. Wheat marginally higher.
• USDA raised US/global wheat stocks in its latest update, whilst also raising US corn stocks, but trimmed global corn stocks. US soybean stocks trimmed, but global stocks raised slightly.
• For w/e Feb 28th US all-wheat sales are running 3% ahead y/y with shipments 6% lower y/y (forecast 11% increase). Corn sales 1% lower y/y with shipments 40% ahead (forecast 1% increase). Soybeans sales 18% lower y/y with shipments 31% lower y/y (forecast 12% decline).
• The US EPA will attempt to stamp out speculation in the US biofuel credit market by barring trading by non-industry players, publicising large positions, and improving price transparency.
• US/China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute, as neither side feels an agreement is imminent.
• Newswire were reporting that Chinese state-owned firms purchased at least 500,000t of US soybeans last Thursday, in the first purchase since China had committed to buy an additional 10mln t as part of trade negotiations. Also purchased 65,000t of US sorghum.
• US Mid-west weather forecast has a system bringing rain/snow early this week for the plains and mid-west, lighter amounts in the east turning fairly quiet for the remainder of the week – temperatures running near average for the plains/mid-west, turning to below average.
• US Delta and southeast weather forecasts still has rain systems moving through the region over the near term.
• Brazilian weather forecast does not see the ongoing light to moderate rainfall abating through the next 10 day period.
• Argentine weather forecast has spotty hit/miss rains in all areas early this week, with things turning fairly quiet for the second half of this week.
• BAGE reports that precipitation left 87% of the Argentinian area planted with soybeans with adequate, or optimum levels of moisture. While the crop in more than 90% of the area was in normal, good or excellent condition, forecasting a crop of 53mln t for the 2018-19 season.
• Indian government is likely to reduce import duty on corn to 10-15% from the current 60% due to lower domestic production this year, expecting the commerce ministry to allow MMTC to announce a tender for 500,000t of corn in the next few days.
• Coceral projected EU soft wheat production would rebound to 139.8mln t in 2019 from a drought-hit 2018 crop of 127.4mln t, in its first estimate for the 2019 harvest. Barley would rise from 56.1mln t to 59.4mln t, with rapeseed falling from 19.7mln t to 18.5mln t (lower sowings).
• Farm office FranceAgriMer estimates 86% of the French soft wheat crop is in good/excellent conditions a/o March 4th, vs 85% a week earlier and 81% at the same stage last year.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £159.55/t – up £0.05/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €183.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle - $8.9575/bushel – down 6.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle - $3.6425/bushel – down 1.00 cent/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.3950/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1565

GBP USD 1.3000

EUR GBP 0.8645

EUR USD 1.1240