Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 29 January 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybeans lower on weak outside markets and talk of a threat of another government shutdown. Corn lower on weak crude oil and equity markets. Wheat lower on weaker European markets and disappointing wheat export numbers.
• USDA will skip January’s supply/demand and include delayed data (quarterly stocks and planting reports) in February 8th report.
• US EPA said last week it will complete a proposal to expand sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline in time for summer, despite delays from the partial government shutdown.
• Brazilian weather forecasts sees good rains in the far northwest growing region, with limited activity elsewhere over the near term. The 6-10 day forecast has close to average rains in most growing areas.
• Argentine weather forecast is dry until rains begin tomorrow through the rest of the week in most areas. The 6-10 day forecast sees below average rainfall in most of the growing regions.
• Canadian 2019-20 crop production estimates from AAFC has total wheat production at 33mln t compared to 31.7mln t in 2018-19. Durum wheat was estimated at 4.9mln t vs 5.7mln t last year and barley was estimated at 8.9mln t vs 8.3mln t a year ago.
• South African corn farmers are expected to plant 14% less of the staple crop in the 2018-19 season, compared with the previous season, after dry conditions delayed plantings outside of the optimum planting window.
• Russia’s January exports of wheat, barley and corn (maize), are estimated at 2.35mln t, sharply down from 4.3mln t shipped in December.
• Russia’s grain harvest in 2019 will total between 108-110mln t, the Ag minister said, and the ministry expects to export 42mln t of grain in the 2018-19 marketing year, which started July 1st, with wheat accounting for 36mln t of the total.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £171.80/t – down £0.45/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €206.25 – down €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.2225/bushel – down 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle - $3.7975/bushel – down 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.1875/bushel – down 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1500

GBP USD 1.3150

EUR GBP 0.8695

EUR USD 1.1430