Gleadell Daily Grain Comments 9 January 2019

[ADM Agriculture]

• US markets – soybeans lower breaking a 4-day streak, although US/China talks have been extended by a day which is deemed positive. Corn lower on selling pressure due to index fund rebalancing. Wheat higher as traders await details of Algerian tender.
• US weekly export inspection data had wheat exports running 13% behind last year with the USDA currently forecasting an 11% increase on the year. Corn was 61% ahead y/y vs projected 1% increase, and soybeans were 42% behind y/y vs projected 11% decline.
• Brazilian weather sees fairly decent rains for the southern growing regions of Brazil into the far northwest over the next 5 days, with limited rains elsewhere. The 6-10 day period forecast continues with rains falling in the south and northwest, limited amounts in the northeast.
• Argentine weather is quiet in most areas except the northeast, with a front arriving tomorrow through Friday bringing rains to most of the Argentine growing areas. The 6-10 day forecast continues with ample rains and some local flooding.
• EU hailed a sharp rise in imports of US soybeans and said it could import more. Comments likely aimed at winning concessions from President Trump’s administration in this week’s trade talk.
• Algeria tendered for 550k wheat yesterday Feb/Mar delivery, with unconfirmed reports of values at $261.5-262/t. GASC tenders today for late-Feb & Mar delivery as Black Sea traders come back from yesterday’s holiday.
• Conservative rebels inflict no-deal defeat on government, as MP’s backed an amendment to the Finance Bill, which would limit the scope for tax changes following a no deal unless authorised by MP’s.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £178.75/t – up £0.50/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €207.00 – up €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle - $9.1850/bushel – down 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle - $3.8000/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.1775/bushel – up 1.00 cent/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR 1.1120

GBP USD 1.2745

EUR GBP 0.8990

EUR USD 1.1460