Government food policy

[chipchap]

There seems at the present time to be very little interest from the powers that be in preserving national food self sufficiency, which has fallen in many commodities to a very low level.

It seems to me that government policy in peacetime tends to lag the situation on the ground by several decades. In the eighties there was talk of grain mountains, wine lakes and disposal of butter surpluses. Farmers had been encouraged to produce food in the wake of rationing in the post war period, and the industry rose to the challenge.

At the present time there is a very real danger that we will be short of food. The world population is rising, and it seems the world political situation is in danger of deteriorating. However governments are formulating policy on a plentiful food scenario. Governments are being lobbied strongly by the environmentalist agenda, who are generally from a rich and affluent background, never having any experience of food scarcity.

I am not an environmentalist, but I am however sympathetic to the environment in which I operate as a farmer.

As a country we in the UK need to take food policy, and incidentally energy policy, much more seriously and address the imbalance in food self sufficiency.

Perhaps there will soon come a time when we can’t simply “buy from overseas”

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Now as never been a better time to push for heathy eating and the heath benefits of, that is one of the keys to eating food produced in the UK

 

[Hindsight]

Now as never been a better time to push for heathy eating and the heath benefits of, that is one of the keys to eating food produced in the UK

Thats a perspective. But the more important perspective is that of government which is to encourage less eating of meat and more vegetables and fruit, but refusing to do the most useful thing to achieve that which would be forcibly to close all take away fast food outlets and introduce compulsory food rationing thus a controlled diet. All who refused to eat required daily quantity of fruit and veg to be either denied NHS services, or shot if repeat offender. Quite simple really. I would fail straight away.

 

[chipchap]

The point is that the whole agricultural industry is being pushed in the wrong direction.

 

[Two Tone]

There seems at the present time to be very little interest from the powers that be in preserving national food self sufficiency, which has fallen in many commodities to a very low level.

It seems to me that government policy in peacetime tends to lag the situation on the ground by several decades. In the eighties there was talk of grain mountains, wine lakes and disposal of butter surpluses. Farmers had been encouraged to produce food in the wake of rationing in the post war period, and the industry rose to the challenge.

At the present time there is a very real danger that we will be short of food. The world population is rising, and it seems the world political situation is in danger of deteriorating. However governments are formulating policy on a plentiful food scenario. Governments are being lobbied strongly by the environmentalist agenda, who are generally from a rich and affluent background, never having any experience of food scarcity.

I am not an environmentalist, but I am however sympathetic to the environment in which I operate as a farmer.

As a country we in the UK need to take food policy, and incidentally energy policy, much more seriously and address the imbalance in food self sufficiency.

Perhaps there will soon come a time when we can’t simply “buy from overseas”

We already have high food inflation due to various climatic disasters around the world last year, particularly North America.
On top of which, fertilisers prices have virtually tripled, not to mentioned the fact that availability is very low around the Globe. Farmers will not get what they need, despite having to reduce its planned usage at such high prices. This will reduce all yields, causing even higher food value inflation as all surpluses are completely gone sometime during 2023.
Here in the UK, a Government policy of taking land out of the food chain, presently via CS and via ELMs in 2024 will exacerbate the problem, causing even higher food value inflation. Not only will food prices rise, but the taxpayer will be paying taxes to take land out of food production!

It’s sheer madness, in a Country such as the UK, with a temperate Climate where Climatic disasters that would severely effect yields will happen far less frequently, to be even considering a policy of reducing farmed land area right now!

 

[Hindsight]

The point is that the whole agricultural industry is being pushed in the wrong direction.

Might ask the CEO of TESCO and Brakes Bros and Deliveroo, as they will have more say!

 

[chipchap]

Might ask the CEO of TESCO and Brakes Bros and Deliveroo, as they will have more say!

They will buy produce from wherever they can earn a margin.

They cannot buy produce from land that has been “rewilded” or planted with trees, or flooded because the drainage has not been maintained, or planted with pretty flower mixtures.

 

[Two Tone]

A Dilemma faces those UK farmers already in a CS agreement, or still waiting hear if their 2022 CS agreement has been approved.

Cereals sale prices continue to rise and by harvest 2022, may well have reached a price such that even poorer land taken out of food production and placed into CS, can not compete to be left un-food-productive, compared to it being used to grow a cash crop.

Fortunately, there may be a get-out clause insofar that a CS agreement can be converted into an ELMs agreement in 2024 and it might be possible to do the absolute minimum requirement within an ELMs agreement, therefore allowing much of that CS land already taken out of food production to start growing cash crops again.

IIRC, the ELMs rules state that if the agreement requirements are not reached, Farmers will not be fined, may not be paid for non performance and will be ‘helped and encouraged’ to conform.
However, in reality ELMs payment rates would have to substantially increase to continue to make a reduction in food growing land viable.

The likes of @Janet Hughes Defra and her ELMs colleagues plans, may suddenly become completely obsolete. Not only because of rampant inflation in everything else including food, but because there simply will not be enough food, let alone affordable food.

Janet and her colleagues may console themselves in the fact that a naturally enforced reduction in fertiliser usage Globally and not just in England (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are not doing ELMs), will have achieved one of their Environmental aims, but in the entire Globe.
Rampant inflation and a Global recession will cause a reduction in the true Polluters, such as holiday air travel and other luxuries.

When it comes down to the feeding priorities of the Human population or wildlife, together with an electorate trying to make ends meet, we will see the fastest change in Peacetime Agricultural Policy ever.

Those wanting us to farm in a so-called ‘more Environmentally friendly’ way soon change their opinions and their Governments when their bellies are no longer full!

 

[Two Tone]

PS, I posed this very scenario at a Cereals Event Farmer Steering Group committee meeting just the other day.
It caused a huge stir amongst all steering group members, insofar as to which Politicians, Government Secretaries of State and Civil Servants we would like to invite to and see at the Event!

They will probably come to the Event anyway, even if they aren’t officially invited.

Just how much of a cereal price rise do we need to completely replace BPS?
Let alone CS and what the ELMs proposals are?
Has that not happen already?

 

[Spudmaster]

I don’t think we’ve seen the half of it yet…. It‘s all kicking off in Central Europe with Putin v the rest of the world.
Russia and Ukraine 1st and 4th largest wheat exporters respectively; Vlad controls gas supply to Europe (direct impact on fertiliser price/availability). Once he invades Ukraine, trade restriction and global supply-chain disruption must surely mean prices only continuing to spiral….

We are facing an unprecedented scenario that is ultimately out of any of our control. Alarmingly there appears to be zero contingency from the Government - indeed all food policy appears to be utterly to the contrary - take good land out of production and plant trees instead!

I normally have a generally optimistic outlook to life - but currently struggling on that point,

 

[J 1177]

I don’t think we’ve seen the half of it yet…. It‘s all kicking off in Central Europe with Putin v the rest of the world.
Russia and Ukraine 1st and 4th largest wheat exporters respectively; Vlad controls gas supply to Europe (direct impact on fertiliser price/availability). Once he invades Ukraine, trade restriction and global supply-chain disruption must surely mean prices only continuing to spiral….

We are facing an unprecedented scenario that is ultimately out of any of our control. Alarmingly there appears to be zero contingency from the Government - indeed all food policy appears to be utterly to the contrary - take good land out of production and plant trees instead!

I normally have a generally optimistic outlook to life - but currently struggling on that point,

Government food policiy as far as i can see is ask mr tesco/sainsburys/asda and hope

 

[Two Tone]

I don’t think we’ve seen the half of it yet…. It‘s all kicking off in Central Europe with Putin v the rest of the world.
Russia and Ukraine 1st and 4th largest wheat exporters respectively; Vlad controls gas supply to Europe (direct impact on fertiliser price/availability). Once he invades Ukraine, trade restriction and global supply-chain disruption must surely mean prices only continuing to spiral….

We are facing an unprecedented scenario that is ultimately out of any of our control. Alarmingly there appears to be zero contingency from the Government - indeed all food policy appears to be utterly to the contrary - take good land out of production and plant trees instead!

I normally have a generally optimistic outlook to life - but currently struggling on that point,

It’ll happen far faster than most people think too.
Remember the Taliban situation in Afghanistan and how quickly that happened a year ago.

There is a program on radio 4 atm. I just heard somebody say he thought that the current inflationary situation may be temporary because it is all driven off the back of high Gas and Oil prices.
How and Why does he think they will go down again?
Is he one of those blind enough to not to have foreseen the Taliban and to think that Vladd won’t hold us all to ransom?

Anybody under the age of 40, won’t know what Inflation is, or will understand that once it starts, it lasts for ages and it’s one hell of a job to get it down against without a lot of pain.

 

[chipchap]

Perhaps if we have a well reasoned debate on here one or two government influencers may see it and maybe, just maybe, they might just give our opinions a second thought.

 

[Two Tone]

Perhaps if we have a well reasoned debate on here one or two government influencers may see it and maybe, just maybe, they might just give our opinions a second thought.

It would be nice, but as far as I can see, unlikely because of too much shortsightedness and the fact that we are a minority to those eating their bacon sandwiches and fancy coffees.

I’m not on Twitter, but a few others of the Cereal Event FAC are and are very critical of the likes of Janet Hughes tweeting every Monday, totally dismissing any criticism and unable to accept the views of us farmers and others that do not agree or see that ELMs will come to fruition.
Also for Useless Eustice. Who you can now see the un-genuineness in his eyes as he trolls out the stuff his audience wants to hear, depending on who exactly that audience is!

The chances of us being believed until it happens, by which time much of it could be too late to have prevented much of the damage.

 

[Werzle]

Wealthy countries like ours will have food to eat and the poorest ones won't.

 

[devonbeef]

Wealthy countries like ours will have food to eat and the poorest ones won't.

the wealthy in wealthy countries will have food, some people, no fault of their own, have very little in this country too.

 

[Chae1]

Perhaps if we have a well reasoned debate on here one or two government influencers may see it and maybe, just maybe, they might just give our opinions a second thought.

Why warn them?

We can see the ensuing sh!t storm. They can't.

Personally I'm quite looking forward to it.

 

[Bramble]

A Dilemma faces those UK farmers already in a CS agreement, or still waiting hear if their 2022 CS agreement has been approved.

Cereals sale prices continue to rise and by harvest 2022, may well have reached a price such that even poorer land taken out of food production and placed into CS, can not compete to be left un-food-productive, compared to it being used to grow a cash crop.

Fortunately, there may be a get-out clause insofar that a CS agreement can be converted into an ELMs agreement in 2024 and it might be possible to do the absolute minimum requirement within an ELMs agreement, therefore allowing much of that CS land already taken out of food production to start growing cash crops again.

IIRC, the ELMs rules state that if the agreement requirements are not reached, Farmers will not be fined, may not be paid for non performance and will be ‘helped and encouraged’ to conform.
However, in reality ELMs payment rates would have to substantially increase to continue to make a reduction in food growing land viable.

The likes of @Janet Hughes Defra and her ELMs colleagues plans, may suddenly become completely obsolete. Not only because of rampant inflation in everything else including food, but because there simply will not be enough food, let alone affordable food.

Janet and her colleagues may console themselves in the fact that a naturally enforced reduction in fertiliser usage Globally and not just in England (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are not doing ELMs), will have achieved one of their Environmental aims, but in the entire Globe.
Rampant inflation and a Global recession will cause a reduction in the true Polluters, such as holiday air travel and other luxuries.

When it comes down to the feeding priorities of the Human population or wildlife, together with an electorate trying to make ends meet, we will see the fastest change in Peacetime Agricultural Policy ever.

Those wanting us to farm in a so-called ‘more Environmentally friendly’ way soon change their opinions and their Governments when their bellies are no longer full!

If UK farmers want to put land into CS/ELMS/SFI/plant trees on it etc then that’s fine by me. They have made a business decision that that is the best way forward for them.

Personally I don’t think I’m going to bother with any of it, can’t be arsed with all the rules and hassle at the current proposed payment levels

I’d rather take my chances with the open market, even with a government doing its hardest to ignore domestic production. Supply chains are not what they were pre-COVID, stuff just doesn’t move around as easily now, not sure the powers that be have fully grasped this yet.

 

[Still Farming]

This Week then.

 

[chipchap]

If UK farmers want to put land into CS/ELMS/SFI/plant trees on it etc then that’s fine by me. They have made a business decision that that is the best way forward for them.

Personally I don’t think I’m going to bother with any of it, can’t be arsed with all the rules and hassle at the current proposed payment levels

I’d rather take my chances with the open market, even with a government doing its hardest to ignore domestic production. Supply chains are not what they were pre-COVID, stuff just doesn’t move around as easily now, not sure the powers that be have fully grasped this yet.

The decision for me is led by the numbers.

I honestly believe the future for me and my business lies in growing food.

We will see, but I honestly think a lot of the environmental mumbo jumbo will be swept aside by the profitability of growing food well.