Is it time to cut production ?

[le bon paysan]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

 

[Widgetone]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

It will start to happen through stewardship scheme? A good example/explanation in the Thriplow report thread, the ag supply chain is starting to get concerned..

 

[Kiwi Pete]

I would have thought 20 years ago would have been a perfect time to start, why spend your own profit for the benefit of others?

What good did it do

 

[DrWazzock]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

Input costs and risk for agricultural commodity production is getting a bit ridiculous. Withdrawal of cheap and useful actives, rip off machinery and parts prices, RT costs and aggravation doesn’t enthuse me to try very hard to be honest. I was fairly anti SFI / ELMS but I’m warming to them. Put it all down to schemes. Sell all the kit, do another piddly job in town and I could live well without the headache. For those staying in production, tighter supplies might help their profits as long as sectors don’t lose critical mass and collapse completely. And actually the weather is already forcing my hand. Combine that with a tanker wedged sideways in the Suez thanks to some Hooty action and it could be showtime on commodity prices. But as ever those of us who have already bowed out and improved it for the diehard farmers won’t see the benefit, but I agree : only if we reduce supply will the industry stand any chance of earning a respectable wage.

 

[DrWazzock]

Bad weather and poor crop establishment across Western Europe, Putin only a stones throw from Odessa, …. and the big subs going into non productive schemes. You couldn’t make this stuff up really. Could be a very interesting year.
And really in the face of the stupidity of non production subsidies in the U.K., you eventually get over the “feed the nation” ideology and think maybe best just play the twerps in power at their own game and maximise my income for least productive effort. Let them face the voter’s and explain the next round of food price inflation to them. We as farmers are only doing what the government has encouraged us to do : namely reduced production.
Let them eat woodchip.

 

[MrNoo]

156ha going into Stewardship here, did try and put the lot in but for some reason some fields have been left out but will pick those up under SFI. Inputs, Red Tape, Red Tractor, unassured prices, etc etc have driven me to this option and quite frankly on my marginal soils I can't earn anything like the CS figures from growing cereals, in an exceptional year maybe, but once in a blue moon. Will keep all the kit, its all paid for but moth ball the place and spend time doing up sheds etc.
I was explaining to a very astute friend re being paid more for growing grass/flowers than growing cereals, he couldn't even begin to believe it, he was astounded.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

It is an obvious consequence of interventionalist capitalism.
Governments want the benefits of 'free-markets' but intervene to avoid any negative consequences such as high food prices.
PPI was another terrible example where private money was supposed to take profit and the risks.
They only ever actually took the profits and the tax payers were still lumbered with risks/ bail outs.

There was always an unwritten rule that the nation supported farmers through the poor times while farmers never benefitted from 'high' times. Boris and Useless tore that up.
Production is going to decline but I'm not sure how low it will go before primary producers will get a fair deal and a fair price.

 

[Y Fan Wen]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

Some time ago I did pass on my neighbour's comment that he had never made any money until he stopped trying.
In any business there is the cost/benefit S curve. Each 10% increase in production will cost more than the previous 10%. It is the easiest thing in the world to push up a little more every year and move up off the steep part of the cost/benefit graph.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Some time ago I did pass on my neighbour's comment that he had never made any money until he stopped trying.
In any business there is the cost/benefit S curve. Each 10% increase in production will cost more than the previous 10%. It is the easiest thing in the world to push up a little more every year and move up off the steep part of the cost/benefit graph.

But there is a minimum amount of turnover/ profit that is required to stay in business which means many have to keep pushing production up.
The loss of BPS will mean that minimum turnover/ profit is now out of reach which means a completely different approach. I think ultimately, many farmers will be happier people, doing less for a greater profit.

 

[DrWazzock]

Heathland creation and maintenance beckons. If it worked out it would be a stable income, better than growing crops here and I could ditch a whole load of costs and hassle.
I’m sure any consultant would recommend it as would my accountant.

 

[warksfarmer]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

Machinery will have to come down as nobody is buying it. The dealers are stuck in the middle and been shafted by the manufacturers. Could be some manufacturer buy outs of dealers looming.
seed prices are consistent around £600/t so sowing off the heap at £200/t is what everybody is doing. Nitrogen has fallen back. Is anybody actually buying P & K? Far too expensive last time I looked. Chemicals if bought independently and generics where possible are ok. Just stay away from the serviced agronomy companies.

 

[thorpe]

Well is it time? What with the bad weather reducing plantings. Is sfi being used because of uncertainty in crop prices and/ or risk aversion. The ability to import looks slightly more difficult, less planted here in Europe too! Would a simple 10/15% reduction be worth it. The less I have done, the better off I have become. Think it was @DrWazzock said it.( Sorry if wrong).
Cut the supply and the price normally goes up. It's time for others to pay not farmers TAKE a price reduction.
Question for the arable boys, cereal price is down, is the price of machinery and inputs coming down to match?
A slow reduction in milk production over a fortnight would focus the minds of buyers. But that's hard because a lot of farmers are borrowing from the banks. So the question is can farming keep going as is?

we don't need to cut production, nature's doing that for us!

 

[David.]

Ruthless cost cutting, take as much as possible back. Break out of the habit of always being on a mission.
Too many on our coat tails, taking their profit up front.

 

[Old apprentice]

Service astronomy man was not to pleased when I told him I had sprayed with generik liberator for £130 .

 

[David.]

Well if you are on serviced agronomy, I guess the implicit agreement is that you use what he sends.

 

[slackjawedyokel]

Is the population shrinking?

 

[warksfarmer]

Is the population shrinking?

no but uk agriculture is. Remember minette promised net zero by 2040 which means at least a 20% drop in uk production. We are already only 60% self sufficient so knock another 20% off that at least.

Thanks minette and the nfu for shafting the industry.

 

[Aspiring Peasants]

The weather seems to be doing a good job of cutting production at the moment!

 

[Widgetone]

A 12 mln tonne 2024/25 UK wheat crop may concentrate a few minds.

 

[MrNoo]

A 12 mln tonne 2024/25 UK wheat crop may concentrate a few minds.

Plenty of cake they can eat!! Stuff them!