Is Wheat Going To Be Under £100 Before Harvest 2016?

[franklin]

Nobody seems to be posting in the grain prices thread. Is it becuase we are all watching it go steadily down?

If you believe what those writing all these reports say, there is so much wheat in sheds, and in the ground, that you may as well burn it in power stations. Actually, I seem to think that burning wheat at £100 is considerably cheaper than wood pellets into a biomass boiler.

Anyway, prices going down, stocks up, and a strong pound. Could we see 15% moisture 72kg bushel weight feed wheat at under £100/t, and if so will that alter the way you do things?

Could the best thing to happen to wheat prices actually be a socialist government?

 

[Against_the_grain]

I think this is very likely. Was told feed wheat today was £105ish. I still have a couple of hundred tonnes to sell and am sure I'm not alone. Plenty won't want to carry into new season. I am seriously considering it but need to do sums and see if computer says yes

 

[DRC]

Nobody seems to be posting in the grain prices thread. Is it becuase we are all watching it go steadily down?

If you believe what those writing all these reports say, there is so much wheat in sheds, and in the ground, that you may as well burn it in power stations. Actually, I seem to think that burning wheat at £100 is considerably cheaper than wood pellets into a biomass boiler.

Anyway, prices going down, stocks up, and a strong pound. Could we see 15% moisture 72kg bushel weight feed wheat at under £100/t, and if so will that alter the way you do things?

Could the best thing to happen to wheat prices actually be a socialist government?

Farmers always do better with Labour in power, according to my old dad, yet I bet most vote Tory.

 

[tw15]

Any thing could happen long way to go , disastrous weather affecting yields and value off the pound could change either way. Thank god we have forward sold wheat going out in may / june so can hold off for a while in the hope of better times to sell.
People needing to sell have no choice sometimes, cashflow has to maintained to pay the bills and some with high fbt rents to pay and a lot of finance to pay will be hurting the most

 

[dazza b]

Farmers always do better with Labour in power, according to my old dad, yet I bet most vote Tory.

Really I wouldn't give labour my vote they always feck the country up!!!

 

[spin cycle]

Really I wouldn't give labour my vote they always feck the country up!!!

thats why.... farmers do better as currency gets weaker

chatting to a grain trader earlier in year when he said wheat was £120....i thought that was a decent price

 

[Baling Hay]

Farmers always do better with Labour in power, according to my old dad, yet I bet most vote Tory.

Labour got in power in 1997 and I seem to remember probably the worst 10 years for farming since the 30s during that period?

 

[Barleycorn]

Really I wouldn't give labour my vote they always feck the country up!!!

Has happened all my life, Labour f*ck it up, and Tories pick up the pieces, but the muppets can't wait for the job to be completed and vote Labour in again.
Chucking out the Tories now is like taking half a course of penicillin.
Don't start me about being ruled by that Scottish b*tch, which will probably be the outcome of the election.

 

[spin cycle]

Labour got in power in 1997 and I seem to remember probably the worst 10 years for farming since the 30s during that period?

back of the tories property boom.....plenty of tax receipts kept public spending up ...so growth...but chickens came home to roost eventually

 

[DrWazzock]

I personally can't see much reason for prices to rise other than a currency devaluation due to a chaotic socialist coalition government, and even that will only be 10 or 15% or so.

But you just never know. My theory is that the trade keeps us farmers in the dark about prospects until the very last minute, so I think there could be an upturn anytime really. I remember a couple of years ago being talked into selling forward in June for what seemed liked a good price, "won't get any higher they said". Within minutes of putting the phone down, those fires broke out in Russia and by harvest time I was loading lorries with grain at £40 per tonne less than the spot price.

So I still think we can expect the unexpected and I will be holding on to next years crop for as long as my bank balance allows.

If there isn't an upturn in prices then might be back working in industry by that time as really the work and outlay involved in farming for meagre returns is getting beyond a joke. My brother, with a bit of casual help, can ranch it all with sheep as they seem to be about the only thing that is paying.

 

[Baling Hay]

I personally can't see much reason for prices to rise other than a currency devaluation due to a chaotic socialist coalition government, and even that will only be 10 or 15% or so.

But you just never know. My theory is that the trade keeps us farmers in the dark about prospects until the very last minute, so I think there could be an upturn anytime really. I remember a couple of years ago being talked into selling forward in June for what seemed liked a good price, "won't get any higher they said". Within minutes of putting the phone down, those fires broke out in Russia and by harvest time I was loading lorries with grain at £40 per tonne less than the spot price.

So I still think we can expect the unexpected and I will be holding on to next years crop for as long as my bank balance allows.

If there isn't an upturn in prices then might be back working in industry by that time as really the work and outlay involved in farming for meagre returns is getting beyond a joke. My brother, with a bit of casual help, can ranch it all with sheep as they seem to be about the only thing that is paying.

Why would the trade keep you in the dark? No one can tell the future and if the trade wanted to buy grain in the hope of it going up surely they could buy thousands of tonnes in paper grain at the click of a button with much less hassle?

 

[Only]

I personally can't see much reason for prices to rise other than a currency devaluation due to a chaotic socialist coalition government, and even that will only be 10 or 15% or so.

But you just never know. My theory is that the trade keeps us farmers in the dark about prospects until the very last minute, so I think there could be an upturn anytime really. I remember a couple of years ago being talked into selling forward in June for what seemed liked a good price, "won't get any higher they said". Within minutes of putting the phone down, those fires broke out in Russia and by harvest time I was loading lorries with grain at £40 per tonne less than the spot price.

So I still think we can expect the unexpected and I will be holding on to next years crop for as long as my bank balance allows.

If there isn't an upturn in prices then might be back working in industry by that time as really the work and outlay involved in farming for meagre returns is getting beyond a joke. My brother, with a bit of casual help, can ranch it all with sheep as they seem to be about the only thing that is paying.

Sheep paying really?

 

[DrWazzock]

With economic growth now faltering especially in real commerce like construction and manufacturing, it looks like the Tory money printing spree might be fizzling out.

I reckon whoever gets in, we will be in for a rough ride over this next five years.

Tories best way forward though, being sensible about it.

 

[Baling Hay]

Sheep paying really?

I reckon he must keep this type of sheep:

 

[Only]

I reckon he must keep this type of sheep:

View attachment 145640

I could do with some of those

 

[DrWazzock]

Why would the trade keep you in the dark? No one can tell the future and if the trade wanted to buy grain in the hope of it going up surely they could buy thousands of tonnes in paper grain at the click of a button with much less hassle?

My mate works for a multinational commodity trader/speculator and he says they have a vast array of crop and weather data monitored around the globe 24/7, with some of the best brains in the business and also computer models analysing it. Believe it or not, they run to make a profit, not as a charity, so won't necessarily divulge all that intelligence that they have paid for to any Tom, Dick or Harry. So they'll know about "unexpected" events a lot sooner than we will.

 

[spin cycle]

I could do with some of those

what dead ones??

 

[Only]

Golden ones

 

[DrWazzock]

The sheep are hard work but don't seem to result in a massive monthly chemical bill or require kit costing hundreds of thousands of pounds.

That's what kept people going through the 30's, dog and stick. Growing wheat was suicide.

 

[yellow belly]

with internet is is possible for farmers in every growing area to talk to each other via forums and know what is happening on the ground

the market often lags behind the local knowledge