Looming food crisis,what can uk ag industry do?

[glasshouse]

Do you know any farmers that are "ramping up production" in response to mahoosive cost increases?

Ploughing grass today for osr

 

[som farmer]

And how are they planning on doing this? Putting more fert on? Feeding extra cake? Or taking on more land?

my neighbour reckons N at £900/ton is still good value, and is putting on his usual high doses. And he can't really see why people are cutting back. There will be plenty like him. And our processor is chasing milk. But, are marginal litres worth pursuing. To put in extra milkers, means a very big cheque. One has to do some serious number crunching, rather than knee jerk reaction to high milk prices.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Ploughing grass today for osr

So cutting back on grass production? There are spring varieties? Every day’s a schoolday.

 

[DaveGrohl]

my neighbour reckons N at £900/ton is still good value, and is putting on his usual high doses. And he can't really see why people are cutting back. There will be plenty like him. And our processor is chasing milk. But, are marginal litres worth pursuing. To put in extra milkers, means a very big cheque. One has to do some serious number crunching, rather than knee jerk reaction to high milk prices.

Usual high dose? So no change.

 

[glasshouse]

So cutting back on grass production? There are spring varieties? Every day’s a schoolday.

Yes, and thinking about more

 

[DaveGrohl]

Yes, and thinking about more

We ploughed up two grass fields for barley last week. Normal rotation. Not "ramping up".

Where I’m standing, "ramping up" entails using more fert or feed than normal to increase yields of crop/milk/meat from the same acreage. Changing a field from one crop to another doesn’t sound like ramping up. But that’s just me.

 

[glasshouse]

We ploughed up two grass fields for barley last week. Normal rotation. Not "ramping up".

Where I’m standing, "ramping up" entails using more fert or feed than normal to increase yields of crop/milk/meat from the same acreage. Changing a field from one crop to another doesn’t sound like ramping up. But that’s just me.

This was planned some time ago, then cancelled, but now reinstated

 

[Cowabunga]

And how are they planning on doing this? Putting more fert on? Feeding extra cake? Or taking on more land?

Taking on more land. Some renting. Some buying. Keeping more cows. No idea about their micro-management.

While some are definitely cutting back on fertiliser and probably on animals kept, these are mainly beef and sheep farmers aiming to reduce the their beef animals as far as I can tell. I know that my neighbour has spread no fertiliser this year and one of his neighbours, who has dairy, beef and sheep, none on a grand scale, has only spread some fertiliser in the last week or so, which is about a month later than usual.

A large dairy herd being sold from the area this week with the land possibly sold but certainly for sale. Another farm has been sold complete with dairy herd, so little change there apart from the new owners doubling their total herd size.

 

[Cowabunga]

my neighbour reckons N at £900/ton is still good value, and is putting on his usual high doses. And he can't really see why people are cutting back. There will be plenty like him. And our processor is chasing milk. But, are marginal litres worth pursuing. To put in extra milkers, means a very big cheque. One has to do some serious number crunching, rather than knee jerk reaction to high milk prices.

My cattle cake is increasing in price by £110/ton from May 1st. Fertiliser has increased by £500/ton+. Milk has increased, or will increase next month by 12ppl compared to the abysmal price last year. Needs to increase by 10ppl more by the Autumn because I suspect that Winter feed price will be around £500/ton unless there’s a miracle. Never mind the cost of electricity and everything else rising. The price of teat dip has risen 40% over the last year alone.

 

[som farmer]

cake price doesn't worry us quite so much, we have started growing corn again, it stops money flowing out, if nothing else.
we have downsized quite dramatically, and that milk price, means the milk cheque is the same as we used to get, with another 100+ cows. And a lot less work.
I think many farmers just assume milking more cows, means more profit, really not sure that is right, used to think so, now, no. But that is down to what individual farmers, want to do. Every farm, and farmer, are different.

 

[ollie989898]

cake price doesn't worry us quite so much, we have started growing corn again, it stops money flowing out, if nothing else.
we have downsized quite dramatically, and that milk price, means the milk cheque is the same as we used to get, with another 100+ cows. And a lot less work.
I think many farmers just assume milking more cows, means more profit, really not sure that is right, used to think so, now, no. But that is down to what individual farmers, want to do. Every farm, and farmer, are different.

I think in time the main constraint on output in the dairy industry will be the availability of labour.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Taking on more land. Some renting. Some buying. Keeping more cows. No idea about their micro-management.

While some are definitely cutting back on fertiliser and probably on animals kept, these are mainly beef and sheep farmers aiming to reduce the their beef animals as far as I can tell. I know that my neighbour has spread no fertiliser this year and one of his neighbours, who has dairy, beef and sheep, none on a grand scale, has only spread some fertiliser in the last week or so, which is about a month later than usual.

A large dairy herd being sold from the area this week with the land possibly sold but certainly for sale. Another farm has been sold complete with dairy herd, so little change there apart from the new owners doubling their total herd size.

So expanding then? So no actual intensification on a per acre basis? I’m still not seeing that as "ramping up", just stepping in where someone else was previously.

 

[DaveGrohl]

I think in time the main constraint on output in the dairy industry will be the availability of labour.

Already happening.

 

[Cowabunga]

So expanding then? So no actual intensification on a per acre basis? I’m still not seeing that as "ramping up", just stepping in where someone else was previously.

Most intensive farms are already at or even above 1LSU/acre. So there is not much scope there to intensify. On the other hand some may well be replacing other enterprises with dairy cows. There is one quite large unit that’s done just that over the last two years to peak this year for the time being.
There are certainly still a few in the process of ramping up numbers. Most will be on a course planned some time ago of course and might well scale back their ambitions somewhat.

Regardless of the above, there are more leaving the dairy sector and cutting back than there are expanding and I suspect that there will be a net decline in production of up to 5% year on year. That may not sound much but if it continues for a second year it will be serious for the consumer. Probably a good thing for dairy farmers generally that our retail customers fear that they will not be able to source product. It certainly isn’t going to be imported cheaply under any foreseeable circumstances up to two or three years hence.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Most intensive farms are already at or even above 1LSU/acre. So there is not much scope there to intensify. On the other hand some may well be replacing other enterprises with dairy cows. There is one quite large unit that’s done just that over the last two years to peak this year for the time being.
There are certainly still a few in the process of ramping up numbers. Most will be on a course planned some time ago of course and might well scale back their ambitions somewhat.

Regardless of the above, there are more leaving the dairy sector and cutting back than there are expanding and I suspect that there will be a net decline in production of up to 5% year on year. That may not sound much but if it continues for a second year it will be serious for the consumer. Probably a good thing for dairy farmers generally that our retail customers fear that they will not be able to source product. It certainly isn’t going to be imported cheaply under any foreseeable circumstances up to two or three years hence.

I agree with what you’ve posted but there’s still no sign of what I would call actual ramping up. Yes the odd farm might be getting bigger but that’s just getting bigger by filling in where someone else used to be.

 

[glasshouse]

I watched Wartime Farm on telly a while ago. In early 1940s in ww2, the 'war ag' said that grazing land for cattle etc had to be dug up and sown with wheat or spuds, as that would feed more people than the animals would. However, by 1943 the yields had dropped drastically because the land was exhausted of nutrients due to no animals manure going into the land. They couldnt get much chemical fertiliser due to the restrictions on shipping etc during the war.
It looks to me that similar conditions are starting to happen (fertiliser/ oil /food shortages) due to the war in Ukraine and the fallout from the lockdowns on the container/shipping industry. So the way i see it, paying farmers to leave farming, planting trees to offset carbon on good agricultural land and building houses on farmland is just stupid!
Makes no sense to me...

It was beyond stupid even before Putin lost his remaining marbles.
Tree burning and planting is just a massive scam promoted by landowners and the forestry industry and lapped up by the morons in parliament.

 

[som farmer]

expansion, around us, the 'going' rate for decent ground, is £200+ no SFP, that price, is because not a lot comes on the market.
sons mate, farms down around Poole, Bournemouth, and is picking up land ho nothing -keep it tidy, or cheap, just been offered 40 acres @£80 acre, good ground, adjacent to his own, and not sure, if he can manage more, unbelievable to us, expensive to him.
What a difference a few miles make, here, grab it, there its shall l, shan't l. Difference, no dairies.

 

[Ffermer Bach]

Most intensive farms are already at or even above 1LSU/acre. So there is not much scope there to intensify. On the other hand some may well be replacing other enterprises with dairy cows. There is one quite large unit that’s done just that over the last two years to peak this year for the time being.
There are certainly still a few in the process of ramping up numbers. Most will be on a course planned some time ago of course and might well scale back their ambitions somewhat.

Regardless of the above, there are more leaving the dairy sector and cutting back than there are expanding and I suspect that there will be a net decline in production of up to 5% year on year. That may not sound much but if it continues for a second year it will be serious for the consumer. Probably a good thing for dairy farmers generally that our retail customers fear that they will not be able to source product. It certainly isn’t going to be imported cheaply under any foreseeable circumstances up to two or three years hence.

Welsh Assembly are aiding this decline with their NVZ implementation (as well as funding and aim to plant trees everywhere)

 

[Ffermer Bach]

I am presently waiting for the Archbishop of Canterbury to say, we should all become Vegan and eating meat is against God's wishes. I know, that sounds outlandish, but it's only a matter of time!

 

[Yale]

The NFU telling people to produce more food at a time like this is utterly insane.

It's like telling car manufacturers to build more cars when they can't get the electronic chips and wiring harnesses.

Politicians need to learn when something is out of stock, it's out of stock, you just can't magic things.