National Grid: Britain will remain dependent on gas for years
Forecasts predict higher than expected demand, in blow to net zero ambitions
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National Grid: Britain will remain dependent on gas for years
Forecasts predict higher than expected demand, in blow to net zero ambitions
Matt Oliver, Industry Editor15 July 2024 • 7:21pmBritain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, National Grid has said, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions.
Demand for gas is now expected to be at least a fifth higher than previously expected in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).
Under three potential “pathways” to net zero by 2050, the ESO also predicted Britain will keep burning “unabated” gas for power – that is, without any form of mitigation such as carbon capture – until at least 2036.
It underlines the scale of the challenge facing Sir Keir and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, as they attempt to rewire Britain’s energy system at a faster pace than envisioned by the Conservatives.
Miliband has made net zero targets his top priority since taking office just over a week ago. Since coming to power on July 5, the Labour government has revoked a de facto ban on onshore wind farms, waved through a string of massive solar farms in the planning system and set up a “mission control” to coordinate the push towards a net zero power grid by 2030.
At the same time, ministers have vowed to pump billions of pounds into green technologies such as carbon capture and green hydrogen production via the new state body GB Energy and a National Wealth Fund.
The ESO said it expected gas demand to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.
The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours.
Today, the country consumes the annual equivalent of 872 terawatt hours in natural gas.
Even after power sources such as wind and solar are generating the lion’s share of electricity, it will still be necessary to keep some gas-fired capacity in reserve to ensure the lights stay on, the ESO added.
Joshua Buckland, a partner at Flint Global who was previously a civil servant in the Treasury and the energy department, warned that meeting the UK’s net zero targets would require “rethinking planning, how we do regulation, environmental approvals, as well as how we plan the energy system”.
He added: “I think that’s the question I’m maybe a little more concerned [about]: whether we are willing to carry through the bold, radical policy and political decisions that are going to be needed to deliver.
“Are we serious about getting infrastructure built in this country over the timeframe that is required?”
The ESO’s report did not give reasons for the higher expected gas demand.
But Kathryn Porter, an independent energy analyst, said two likely reasons were regulator Ofgem’s decision to block a series of new electricity interconnectors with Europe, which were previously part of the ESO’s calculations, as well as the expected closure of various nuclear power plants this decade.
Ms Porter added: “It means you will just not be able to meet demand by the end of this decade without more gas.”
The ESO’s latest predictions, made before the general election, do not take into account policies that Labour has pledged to enact in government, such as accelerating investment in green technologies and making the power grid net zero by 2030.
In the same report, published on Monday, the ESO says important decisions must be taken urgently to keep the UK on a viable path to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
For example, it warns that between three to 18 terawatt hours of hydrogen storage is needed by 2035 – partly to burn when output from renewables is low. For 2050, the figure rises to between 19 and 49 terawatt hours.
This would likely be achieved by hollowing out natural salt deposits underneath areas such as East Yorkshire, Cheshire and Wessex and turning them into hydrogen storage facilities, as proposed by a Royal Society study last year.
But the ESO report warns that such facilities typically take 10 to 12 years to develop, suggesting the work “needs to begin immediately” for them to be ready in time.
Relatively few hydrogen storage projects have been proposed so far, although The Telegraph recently revealed one that would go below a former naval base in Portland Harbour, Dorset.
The report played down the role of hydrogen in home heating in two of three net zero scenarios, while also noting that blending hydrogen into household gas supplies would help stimulate demand for the gas but would not yield big emission reductions.
Meanwhile, the ESO said the total amount of available wind and solar power capacity needs to rise from 44 gigawatts today to between 141 and 189 gigawatts by 2035, rising to between 197 and 249 gigawatts in 2050.
Overall storage capacity, including electric batteries, would also need to rise from seven gigawatts today to 30 to 48 gigawatts by 2035 and 50 to 83 gigawatts by 2050.
Claire Dykta, director of strategy and policy at the ESO, said “decisive action within the next two years” was needed to ensure Britain reaches its climate goals.
The ESO is due to be formally split off from National Grid later this year to become the government-owned National Electricity System Operator (NESO), a role that will see it take responsibility for planning the country’s energy system.
