More by elections

[Widgetone]

The election can still go either way - I hope I'm not being too harsh, but a lot of the electorate make their mind up at the polling booth it would seem. If the popular press back a particular party the day before, the sheep will follow.

I'm pretty disappointed that the Green Party appears more concerned about gender politics than environmental issues at the moment.

 

[HatsOff]

But it wasn't a swing, there hasn't been a 'swing'; a 'swing' means voters leaving one party for another. The numbers demonstrate very clearly that this is not what happened overall - though I am sure there were a few who did. The vast majority of Tory voters just didn't turn out to vote at all, and they certainly didn't vote for Labour, so there was no swing.

You've made an assumption that everyone voting labour last time has voted this time plus 109 people, but there's not enough information to think that.

 

[yoki]

The election can still go either way - I hope I'm not being too harsh, but a lot of the electorate make their mind up at the polling booth it would seem. If the popular press back a particular party the day before, the sheep will follow.

I'm pretty disappointed that the Green Party appears more concerned about gender politics than environmental issues at the moment.

I don't think you're being harsh at all, astute if anything.

Regarding the Greens, someone posted on a thread here a while ago how movements looking to push an agenda can essentially 'hijack' a smaller political party and use it to forward that particular agenda.

When I read it, it struck me how it precisely described what had happened to the Green Party here in Northern Ireland, resulting in them being pretty much being wiped out at the last assembly elections here.

Maybe a similar path over there now?

 

[czechmate]

You've made an assumption that everyone voting labour last time has voted this time plus 109 people, but there's not enough information to think that.

exactly

 

[Danllan]

You've made an assumption that everyone voting labour last time has voted this time plus 109 people, but there's not enough information to think that.

No, it's not an assumption it's a presumption, since there is a very long record of voting practice in by-elections to refer to and to help with interpretation. Obviously we have no detailed info' re this latest specific vote, but we do know that human nature and habits don't change that much and it is reasonable and rational to expect this to be so in this case. So we can extrapolate from what we know...*

And we know from the previous record that, on the whole, people who really support a given party will go and vote for that party regardless of whatever. It also tells us that people who are 'generally' supportive of a party will give it the benefit of the doubt, and that about half of this group will vote the same way again without good reason not to, the other half punishing their party by not voting, or voting elsewhere in protest - though only rarely for the direct opposition. (I'don't know of any figures for what the divide is for that last section)

And the history also tells us that the largest group of voters for any given party do so because they dislike that party less than the other one. They won't give the benefit of the doubt, they are pretty scathing, yet they won't easily give their vote to the other party they previously disliked more. So they do the most obvious and easy thing available to them, nothing...



*I'm entirely happy to be proven wrong in this presumption if real data reveals me to be.

 

[nivilla1982]

Another potential by election in Blackpool. If recall petition is successful etc.

 

[BrianV]

Post office scandal, of course that wet Cameron knew full well what was going on & the fact he still holds office should tell you all you need to know of the Tory party these days.

Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigation​

• • Published
    11 hours ago

BBC NEWS
business-68146054

 

[capfits]

Ex-Tory MP Scott Benton loses appeal against Commons suspension - paving way for by-election

Blackpool South MP Scott Benton is set to be suspended from the Commons for 35 days after his appeal against the Standards Committee's decision was dismissed by an independent panel.

news.sky.com

Another corrupt MP going to be offered timeout by his constituents?

 

[BrianV]

Cleverly, now there’re another over promoted prat that needs firing.

Home Office SACKS borders inspector

David Neal will immediately leave his role as the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration after being fired by Home Secretary James Cleverly.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Widgetone]

Cleverly, now there’re another over promoted prat that needs firing.

Home Office SACKS borders inspector

David Neal will immediately leave his role as the Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration after being fired by Home Secretary James Cleverly.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Tbf, was this just guy doing what he was supposed to do, like flagging up a problem?
I do get that whistleblowers rarely win popularity contests.

 

[holywell farmer]

Another potential by election in Blackpool. If recall petition is successful etc.

A red wall seat too

 

[holywell farmer]

Another potential by election in Blackpool. If recall petition is successful etc.

Mp has resigned so recall petition has been stopped so it's another by election due in early may.

 

[BrianV]

You have to wonder where this country is heading, so many new houses are already being built around Exeter that you would not believe, I spoke to a chap today who had attended a local planning meeting where they learnt that plans are in the pipeline for 14,000 more new residential homes in houses & flats are planned to be built in the Exeter area in the near future.

 

[essex man]

You have to wonder where this country is heading, so many new houses are already being built around Exeter that you would not believe, I spoke to a chap today who had attended a local planning meeting where they learnt that plans are in the pipeline for 14,000 more new residential homes in houses & flats are planned to be built in the Exeter area in the near future.

Not enough houses being built.
Young people are getting shafted

 

[BrianV]

Not enough houses being built.
Young people are getting shafted

Plenty of houses are being built, far too many people coming to this country to keep up with demand, we've lived through the best of this country & I feel really sorry for our grand kids.

 

[uztrac]

Plenty of houses are being built, far too many people coming to this country to keep up with demand, we've lived through the best of this country & I feel really sorry for our grand kids.

Exactly my feelings Brian. Over 220,000 planned for Cambridge in the next decade.

 

[Hindsight]

Plenty of houses are being built, far too many people coming to this country to keep up with demand, we've lived through the best of this country & I feel really sorry for our grand kids.

Exactly my feelings Brian. Over 220,000 planned for Cambridge in the next decade.

A few of us older folk need to die off to free up some roof space. A few of us older folk that own second homes (Norfolk abounds with them) need to give them to a young family with no roof or chance of the housing ladder. But that would not be popular - as Essex Man would say. But tis the truth.

 

[BrianV]

A few of us older folk need to die off to free up some roof space. A few of us older folk that own second homes (Norfolk abounds with them) need to give them to a young family with no roof or chance of the housing ladder. But that would not be popular - as Essex Man would say. But tis the truth.

I have a feeling this talk of second homes being the problem is some what of a red herring, it's true because of stupid government policies many people that previously let property now prefer the safety of air b&b rather than get stuck with a nightmare tenant that the government have made almost impossible to get rid of even if the amount of weeks let is only a quarter of the time let previously.
Forget all the bullish!t you cannot allow our population to increase so dramatically without it causing a housing shortage!

 

[czechmate]

I have a feeling this talk of second homes being the problem is some what of a red herring, it's true because of stupid government policies many people that previously let property now prefer the safety of air b&b rather than get stuck with a nightmare tenant that the government have made almost impossible to get rid of even if the amount of weeks let is only a quarter of the time let previously.
Forget all the bullish!t you cannot allow our population to increase so dramatically without it causing a housing shortage!

i know I am in France but I am sure there are similar villages in the uk… 40% of our village is second homes. That seems a bit more than a “Red Herring”

 

[BrianV]

i know I am in France but I am sure there are similar villages in the uk… 40% of our village is second homes. That seems a bit more than a “Red Herring”

It's true in some of the picture house towns & villages by the sea it's a real problem for locals but in the UK as a whole the percentage of second homes in comparison to the amount of new house building is minuscule, there is but one reason for the housing shortage in the UK & probably the same applies to much of Europe.