Potato planting plans for 2015

[Honest john]

I have been talking to folk and it seems every one has had enough.

Seed man in today trying to round up money from this years seed bills.
If you were selling seed for 2015 who will be in a position to pay for it ?

What to do ?
I think we will cut 100 + acres of rented ground out. For one if price stays at this level we would not be able to pay for the rent or the seed. For another we have had enough of being done over.

We have a few sound yields but a lot of crap ones as well. We had a lot of seed that had poor vigour the seed rotted early and the plant was slow to get going. On top of this there is black leg as well.

In the west there have been cut backs but still will be more to come.

What plans are you all making

 

[glasshouse]

The bank will be deciding who grows spuds next year i would say.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

This time next year potatoes will be worth a fortune!

 

[Sonoftheheir]

I have been talking to folk and it seems every one has had enough.

Seed man in today trying to round up money from this years seed bills.
If you were selling seed for 2015 who will be in a position to pay for it ?

What to do ?
I think we will cut 100 + acres of rented ground out. For one if price stays at this level we would not be able to pay for the rent or the seed. For another we have had enough of being done over.

We have a few sound yields but a lot of crap ones as well. We had a lot of seed that had poor vigour the seed rotted early and the plant was slow to get going. On top of this there is black leg as well.

In the west there have been cut backs but still will be more to come.

What plans are you all making

Funny I was thinking today, will we actually be able to afford to grow next years crop? My feeling is if next year is the same as this then that will finish us up. Mr 4 SP harvesters can have the land instead...... But will he have had enough too?

 

[JCA]

Planning to be back 15%+, certainly glad I do not grow the area I used to. Its the annual problem, everyone has had enough and says they are going to cut back. Then hear everyone else is going to cut back so end up growing the same to 'cash in'. Ends up area planted will be within 5% of this year and crap prices again.

Was discussing this with someone this morning, the big growers will need to be committing to next year now, what do they do other than same again? Big stores to fill, lots of staff and machinery to pay for etc. Those on predominantly fixed price contracts will be ok, its the big free marketeers that have a tough decision.

 

[Honest john]

Funny I was thinking today, will we actually be able to afford to grow next years crop? My feeling is if next year is the same as this then that will finish us up. Mr 4 SP harvesters can have the land instead...... But will he have had enough too?

The big boys losses will be bigger still on a per acre base.
We are all selling into the same market. I would say the 50/100 acre man can stand it better. Especially if no rents to pay out next April.

If we all reduce 30% & Belgium France Holland don't then prices could still be low.
After all some growers in the west have cut back hard some gone out & still no difference.

 

[KennyO]

I suspect that the big boys up here will talk the talk that there needs to be less tatties grown but still plant the same or more if they can. I suspect many would keep going till the bank calls them, in rather than reduce their area.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

We had an extra field this year as our buyers are always wanting more than we can supply. Next year we won't and due to field sizes we'll be down a little. And we haven't expanded our area in 20 years (except this year).

 

[Daniel]

Mr 4 SP harvesters can have the land instead...... But will he have had enough too?

Their appetite for more land seems insatiable regardless of economic conditions!

 

[HAM135]

At the moment we are meaning to stop growing next year,just doesn't add up.Can't see the job improve in the short term certainly not next yr as cold stores will be full and could realistically keep spuds well into next season if there looked like being a shortage,in any case spuds can be brought in from Europe for less than coming from Scotland.As said before a lot of the big growers will claim that they are cutting back but will probably plant a bit more just in case there is a shortage.I would imagine most contracts will be cut back for next season as well,fert,seed,chem prices going up,good luck!

 

[Sonoftheheir]

One has to speculate to accumulate...... Then lose it the year after!

What are you going to grow instead @HAM135 ?

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Their appetite for more land seems insatiable regardless of economic conditions!

Someone must be bank rolling them? Must be an oil baron somewhere? They seem to have a bottomless pit of money and diesel.

 

[JCA]

At the moment we are meaning to stop growing next year,just doesn't add up.Can't see the job improve in the short term certainly not next yr as cold stores will be full and could realistically keep spuds well into next season if there looked like being a shortage,in any case spuds can be brought in from Europe for less than coming from Scotland.As said before a lot of the big growers will claim that they are cutting back but will probably plant a bit more just in case there is a shortage.I would imagine most contracts will be cut back for next season as well,fert,seed,chem prices going up,good luck!

On paper over a five year average, can probably make more money per ha renting the fields out along with boxes and some storage than growing them. Lot less stress and consistent income. Just getting into the mindset. Cannot think of any who have come out and wished they hadn't and gone back in.

 

[SilliamWhale]

Their appetite for more land seems insatiable regardless of economic conditions!

How can you stop though? All those coldstores and kit etc. Its difficult to get out of and on balance the value of spuds has to exceed its growing costs more often than not.

Usually a price boom comes from somewhere..ie russia, europe etc.

 

[SilliamWhale]

On paper over a five year average, can probably make more money per ha renting the fields out along with boxes and some storage than growing them. Lot less stress and consistent income. Just getting into the mindset. Cannot think of any who have come out and wished they hadn't and gone back in.

We got out in 2011. 2012 was a good year and I did kick myself a bit. But the fact is the market for fresh spuds is shrinking and we wouldn't be able to compete with processing spud market.

 

[HAM135]

One has to speculate to accumulate...... Then lose it the year after!

What are you going to grow instead @HAM135 ?

Not growing a big acreage,probably just rent out some of our spud ground,silly rents paid in this area,also have a 500kw wind turbine going up next yr so hope that will cover the loss of income from the spuds.

 

[Hampton]

Don't grow spuds anymore but I believe you need to go against the grain.
I said to many people back in may that prices would be crap this year as spuds were everywhere. I saw potatoes on fields I have never seen them before and every grower seemed to be renting land for them.
My view? All the big boys will cut back and the job will be good next year.
Look at the yearly averages on the graphs and see when the good years are. They follow the bad ones every time.

 

[HAM135]

Don't grow spuds anymore but I believe you need to go against the grain.
I said to many people back in may that prices would be crap this year as spuds were everywhere. I saw potatoes on fields I have never seen them before and every grower seemed to be renting land for them.
My view? All the big boys will cut back and the job will be good next year.
Look at the yearly averages on the graphs and see when the good years are. They follow the bad ones every time.

This is the 2nd bad yr in a row though

 

[SilliamWhale]

This is the 2nd bad yr in a row though

I would have thought you should have made some money last year?

 

[KennyO]

Production needs to drop MASSIVELY to 2012 levels. We need a million tonnes or more less production. Can't see that happening next year. Too many will take the gamble. Up here seed will be cheap as most big growers grow their own.