Russian Wheat Crop.

[Roger Perry]

Projected to be the largest Russian wheat crop ever at 64 mmt, the Ukrain at 22mmt.
Argentine acreage up 30% and the Ausie crop the best in five years combined with large ending stocks it's no wonder wheat off the combine is on the floor.

As harvest moves north into Kansas prices are pretty bad.

 

[Norm]

Full of cheer

 

[Iben]

I wouldn't be to concerned about what the russians forecast until it is actually in the shed.

If Argentina have put an extra 30% more wheat, what crop had that replaced?

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Projected to be the largest Russian wheat crop ever at 64 mmt, the Ukrain at 22mmt.
Argentine acreage up 30% and the Ausie crop the best in five years combined with large ending stocks it's no wonder wheat off the combine is on the floor.

As harvest moves north into Kansas prices are pretty bad.

Wheat price is the highest for months though?

 

[D14]

Projected to be the largest Russian wheat crop ever at 64 mmt, the Ukrain at 22mmt.
Argentine acreage up 30% and the Ausie crop the best in five years combined with large ending stocks it's no wonder wheat off the combine is on the floor.

As harvest moves north into Kansas prices are pretty bad.

Was told yesterday uk new crop is up £20 off the combine. Can any merchants confirm?

 

[Badshot]

Was told yesterday uk new crop is up £20 off the combine. Can any merchants confirm?

My feckin shed is still half full so I can't see why!!!
Meant to have gone in may.

 

[Sonoftheheir]

My feckin shed is still half full so I can't see why!!!
Meant to have gone in may.

I better strike a deal for Sep now then!

 

[D14]

Beginning to think slashing our wheat area by 75% was a stupid idea.

 

[Iben]

Beginning to think slashing our wheat area by 75% was a stupid idea.

You probably were still right, depends on what you replaced the area with?

I cut my area back and rented that ground out for more veg and carrots. Not regretting it so far.

 

[D14]

You probably were still right, depends on what you replaced the area with?

I cut my area back and rented that ground out for more veg and carrots. Not regretting it so far.

Spring combinables and roots where the soil allows. Also some grass.

 

[wr.]

I wouldn't be to concerned about what the russians forecast until it is actually in the shed.

If Argentina have put an extra 30% more wheat, what crop had that replaced?

Rain forest?

 

[Brisel]

I wouldn't be to concerned about what the russians forecast until it is actually in the shed.

That's a wise thought. I treat the Russians like the Chinese. They don't actually know what they've got or what quality it will be and may have an angle on talking the markets in a particular direction to suit themselves (probably a short position). The markets want information so lots of "eductated guesses" are made throughout the season. Both the former Soviet Union countries and China are big enough players to be able to move markets with a bit of news like this.

If you're really feeling bored, Google news reports from Russia at this time in recent years. IIRC most predict bumper crops that don't actually turn out to be after the end of that marketing campaign.

What do we do? Have some sales on the books just as a hedge in case there may be some truth in it. I'm 55% sold on 2016 harvest already & have recently done 12% of 2017 wheat at £120 - 123/t Nov '17. Was that right? Feck knows, but they were done at what seemed to be reasonable money at the time.

If Argentina have put an extra 30% more wheat, what crop had that replaced?

Rain forest?

Soya or maize? Acknowledging the substitution effect of swapping crops is wise IMO. I doubt that many acres will be fallowed instead

 

[crazy_bull]

Was told yesterday uk new crop is up £20 off the combine. Can any merchants confirm?

No not correct,

up perhaps £5-8 from lows (depending on how low people went)

C B

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

I treat the Russians like the Chinese.

Full of mystery & hot air?

 

[Brisel]

Full of mystery & hot air?

Soemthing like that, yes. Also to big & clunky to know what is really going on. And as bent as a nine bob note!

 

[Pieces_of_Eight]

And as bent as a nine bob note!

That is the bush I was beating around.

You just never know who is keeping an eye on these forums. Last thing I need is a stranger jabbing me in the a$$ with Polonium while i'm stood at the bar...

 

[Brisel]

That is the bush I was beating around.

You just never know who is keeping an eye on these forums. Last thing I need is a stranger jabbing me in the a$$ with Polonium while i'm stood at the bar...

So you'd be ok being jabbed if it wasn't Polonium?

I doubt I'm of any significance in the world's grain trade - just another keyboard commentator on something I have no control over.

 

[Roger Perry]

I believe it was a Bloomberg news report so has credibility.

 

[fudge]

I believe it was a Bloomberg news report so has credibility.

Blimey you free market guys must be shitting a brick. Maybe you have sold already?

 

[Barleycorn]

When we grew a fair bit of cerials we never sold until late spring the year after unless we ran out of room. Always seemed to get a pretty good price.