I did say increases in profits will only be a red flag, if you can prove your case, you will have nothing to worry about. You sound like you could if pushed and if you have claimed the money, you would have to show that you lost money, and why, I suppose if they were really picky they would need proof that you grow Malting Barly and it was meeting spec.malting barley demand dropped like a stone at harvest last year due to covid, but wheat more than made up for it plus up in scotland we all got convergence payments meaning my profits are up BUT i made less than i should have because of the malting barley, i should have made an extra £30,000, so yes covid cost me a lot of mone, the fact my profits are higher than the previous year should be irrelevant
But I doubt that they will
I know the potatoes trade for chipping potatoes fell due to chip shops being shut, again that’s a case to be made and if you decided to claim money you maybe asked to make it.
These are all reasons you may have claimed, while you feel they are reasonable reasons, to claim it’s less certain if that’s in keeping with the goal of the support I am not the judge of that the tax system will be.
A lot of these scheme were put in very fast and I expect they expected some incorrect claims and I am also sure they will do there best to draw back what they can if they deem it incorrectly claimed.
Like I said if you have a reason to make a claim then I expect it will be asked for, if your profits increased, but unfortunately for us they get to judge as to if those that claimed it were following the spirit of the support system or not.