The war in Ukraine...

[BrianV]

Russian forces advance in vicinity of Avdiyivka, positional fighting continues near coke plant – ISW

Russian forces recently advanced northeast and south of Avdiyivka amid continued positional fighting in the area on February 2, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on February 2.

en.interfax.com.ua

Ukrainian veteran questions whether Western support can offset enormous Russian artillery barrages

A veteran of the Russo-Ukrainian war, reserve major Oleksiy Hetman commented on a comment from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War about the lack of ammunition, which may force Ukraine to prioritize territories for defense during a Radio NV broadcast on Feb. 3.

english.nv.ua

 

[Muck Spreader]

Ruddy hell ,go and have a hot toddy !! We are all aware how precarious the world is becoming , but your obsession with the money spent on Ukraine is bordering on the ridiculous (for someone who is so obviously well off )
Are we meant to shrink back on ourselves and stop supporting worthy causes?
Oh I forgot ,Ukraine isnt worthy in your eyes

 

[essex man]

To victory as Ukraine defines it - and that means retaking all of its occupied territory.

Before the last offensive, the West didn't give Ukraine either sufficient mine removal kit, nor any relevant air power; utterly shameful, but it's the truth nonetheless. And yet criticism was heaped on Ukraine for not achieving 'enough', and that in circumstances that no Western army would have ever accepted.

However, the proper support is now being given. We know as fact that the attrition rate of Russian troops doesn't allow for replacements to be trained; they have no chance to recover the potential they has in February 2022.

Continuing with the analogy, you don't stop fighting someone who you know will immediately repeat his earlier actions the moment you stop.

I don't know, but I think that you and a very few others try and mask your lack of care for Ukraine - or maybe even support of Russia - in claiming concern for Ukraine's well-being. Be that as it may, and it is quite revolting, even then an entirely self-centred interest should be grateful for Ukraine's diminishing Russia at the cost to us in the West of mere treasure?


I'm with you as far as the practicalities are concerned, and in sentiment too. But... it really isn't about ideology now; in great part it was about ideology at the start, no error, but not anymore. As far as Putin is concerned - and maybe the 'Russian Federation' too - this is now entirely about survival.

Dictators who lose wars don't survive in power and rarely in life. Putin knows if he doesn't come out of this with something he can claim as a victory, he is gone. And, because of the devastation he's allowed of Russia's military - initially via corruption, and then in his war - it's now impossible for it to fight in Ukraine (even if only to its poor current standard) and control a secessionist state from within the Russian Federation.

Putin is certain to know that he can't get any more of Ukraine than he has now; and equally certain to know that he can only lose more of what he has. But he's riding the tiger, and he can't get off - and every day it's costing many hundreds of Russian lives and dozens of Ukrainians too.

"Revolting" would apply to those keen to let others die for a hopeless cause they don't consider important enough to die for themselves.
They are not going to win, a lot more people are going to have to die to convince you of that, Cleary!

 

[quattro]

"Revolting" would apply to those keen to let others die for a hopeless cause they don't consider important enough to die for themselves.
They are not going to win, a lot more people are going to have to die to convince you of that, Cleary!

How do they know there not going to die anyway if they surrender
I think I’d rather die fighting for my country than be killed/murdered in cold like we’ve seen the rusky bxstards even do to their own people

 

[Charlie Gill]

Ukrainian veteran questions whether Western support can offset enormous Russian artillery barrages

A veteran of the Russo-Ukrainian war, reserve major Oleksiy Hetman commented on a comment from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War about the lack of ammunition, which may force Ukraine to prioritize territories for defense during a Radio NV broadcast on Feb. 3.

english.nv.ua

Tick, tock, tick tock; kerching.

 

[essex man]

How do they know there not going to die anyway if they surrender
I think I’d rather die fighting for my country than be killed/murdered in cold like we’ve seen the rusky bxstards even do to their own people

I am not talking about surrender.

 

[BrianV]

BLOOMBERG NEWS
house-to-vote-on-israel-aid-bill-without-ukraine-funds-next-week

The US House will next week vote on an standalone $17.6 billion Israel aid package without any Ukraine aid, Speaker Mike Johnson said Saturday.e

Johnson said the move is needed to get aid to Israel quickly in its battle with Hamas in the Gaza Strip because there is no time to consider a package that combines aid to Ukraine and Israel with US-Mexico border security provisions. That proposal is set to be released soon by the Senate after lengthy negotiations.

The Israel bill unveiled Saturday is the latest sign that House Republicans are prepared to delay action on Ukraine aid indefinitely due to disputes over US migration policy. Aid for Israel is far more popular within the House GOP than aid to Ukraine.

 

[Mr Mackay]

Getting to the stage whereby shells are obsolete. Why use 10 shells to destroy a tank when 1 drone will do the same job.

Russia Has Massed 500 Tanks For An Attack On Kupyansk. Thousands Of Ukrainian Drones Await Them.

Can a swarm of two-pound drones, even thousands of them, defeat 500 tanks and 650 fighting vehicles as they attack behind a wall of artillery fire? We may find out.

www.forbes.com

 

[Hindsight]

Philips O'Brien commentary of the situation in Washington. And the comment that part of the Republican Party - the Trumpist's are in effect operating for the Putin regime.

Weekend Update #66: Its always been about Ukraine--Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts

Its always been about Ukraine—Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts Speaker Johnson dropped all pretence yesterday. Above all other issues, the Republican leadership in the House is desperate to stop any US aid to Ukraine. With it becoming obvious that the Senate was going to move forward soon on a bill that had aid for Ukraine and Israel, and some concessions to the Republicans to make it work, Johnson went nuclear to try and get aid to Ukraine removed from any bill. Johnson sent this letter to Republicans in the House saying that a bill will aid for Israel, but without the spending cuts that he had demanded previously, would soon be sent for a vote. However, aid for Ukraine was not mentioned. ​ Its disingenuous on so many levels. The House has been the most obstructive on the funding bills, first tying them to Biden making a major compromise on the border, which the president did. However, once Biden moved on the border, Johnson and the House leadership decided that was not enough, and backed off any bill that had aid for Ukraine. The Speaker, at that point called any compromise bill “dead on arrival”. Now, we have a panic-stricken response by Johnson to the real prospect that the Senate in the next few days will approve a compromise bill with aid for Ukraine. He is trying to pre-empt the bill by passing aid for Israel without any preconditions. After all his huffing and puffing, now no compromise on the border or spending cuts are needed. He even threatens the Senate with obstruction if they pass the aid bill for Ukraine. So, once the dust settles its clear that the Republican leadership in the House doesn’t really want spending cuts, doesn’t really want a border bill—but under no circumstances wants aid to Ukraine. The Republican priority is now undeniable, and undeniably shameless. How will it work out? I’m starting to lose hope (though its not all gone). I’ve always thought that aid to Ukraine had a better than 50-50 chance because there are clear majorities in both houses of Congress in favor and because Johnson, once he became speaker, actually moderated his rhetoric on aid for Ukraine—clearly saying it could be passed if a deal on the border was reached. Now, that compromise language is gone. Things are not hopeless, however, as the Senate will almost certainly pass an aid bill for Ukraine. At that point there will be negotiation between House and Senate. It will take the Senate to back down, accepting aid for Israel without aid for Ukraine, to fully throw Ukraine under the bus. I don’t know enough about the feeling in the Senate to say if they will remain firm on Ukraine. The other option would be for pro-Ukraine House Republicans to basically threaten Johnson’s position—however they have shown themselves time and again to be weak. Its hard to see them making a stand here. One thing to watch is if Trump continues to drop in the polls. This move by Johnson is clearly being driven in the House by the Trump-acolytes (or Trumpolytes). With Trump almost certainly to be the nominee, Johnson is obviously terrified of making him upset. If Trump looks like a loser, however, that could help. Again, I would not get my hopes up too much—but its a possibility. Ultimately I’ve moved from 60-40 thinking aid for Ukraine would pass to 60-40 thinking it wont. Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices. Europe and Ukraine better get ready (more on that next week). Share​

 

[BrianV]

Philips O'Brien commentary of the situation in Washington. And the comment that part of the Republican Party - the Trumpist's are in effect operating for the Putin regime.

Weekend Update #66: Its always been about Ukraine--Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts

Its always been about Ukraine—Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts Speaker Johnson dropped all pretence yesterday. Above all other issues, the Republican leadership in the House is desperate to stop any US aid to Ukraine. With it becoming obvious that the Senate was going to move forward soon on a bill that had aid for Ukraine and Israel, and some concessions to the Republicans to make it work, Johnson went nuclear to try and get aid to Ukraine removed from any bill. Johnson sent this letter to Republicans in the House saying that a bill will aid for Israel, but without the spending cuts that he had demanded previously, would soon be sent for a vote. However, aid for Ukraine was not mentioned.​ ​ Its disingenuous on so many levels. The House has been the most obstructive on the funding bills, first tying them to Biden making a major compromise on the border, which the president did. However, once Biden moved on the border, Johnson and the House leadership decided that was not enough, and backed off any bill that had aid for Ukraine. The Speaker, at that point called any compromise bill “dead on arrival”. Now, we have a panic-stricken response by Johnson to the real prospect that the Senate in the next few days will approve a compromise bill with aid for Ukraine. He is trying to pre-empt the bill by passing aid for Israel without any preconditions. After all his huffing and puffing, now no compromise on the border or spending cuts are needed. He even threatens the Senate with obstruction if they pass the aid bill for Ukraine. So, once the dust settles its clear that the Republican leadership in the House doesn’t really want spending cuts, doesn’t really want a border bill—but under no circumstances wants aid to Ukraine. The Republican priority is now undeniable, and undeniably shameless. How will it work out? I’m starting to lose hope (though its not all gone). I’ve always thought that aid to Ukraine had a better than 50-50 chance because there are clear majorities in both houses of Congress in favor and because Johnson, once he became speaker, actually moderated his rhetoric on aid for Ukraine—clearly saying it could be passed if a deal on the border was reached. Now, that compromise language is gone. Things are not hopeless, however, as the Senate will almost certainly pass an aid bill for Ukraine. At that point there will be negotiation between House and Senate. It will take the Senate to back down, accepting aid for Israel without aid for Ukraine, to fully throw Ukraine under the bus. I don’t know enough about the feeling in the Senate to say if they will remain firm on Ukraine. The other option would be for pro-Ukraine House Republicans to basically threaten Johnson’s position—however they have shown themselves time and again to be weak. Its hard to see them making a stand here. One thing to watch is if Trump continues to drop in the polls. This move by Johnson is clearly being driven in the House by the Trump-acolytes (or Trumpolytes). With Trump almost certainly to be the nominee, Johnson is obviously terrified of making him upset. If Trump looks like a loser, however, that could help. Again, I would not get my hopes up too much—but its a possibility. Ultimately I’ve moved from 60-40 thinking aid for Ukraine would pass to 60-40 thinking it wont. Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices. Europe and Ukraine better get ready (more on that next week). Share

Maybe the thinking is that further aid to Ukraine will achieve very little & will instead lead to escalation, the only way to get Zelensky to really negotiate is if they fear Russia winning.
What will $17.6 billion to Israel achieve other than to keep the killing going.

 

[Hindsight]

Maybe the thinking is that further aid to Ukraine will achieve very little & will instead lead to escalation, the only way to get Zelensky to really negotiate is if they fear Russia winning.
What will $17.6 billion to Israel achieve other than to keep the killing going.

My take on the commentary was that the Republican Party is putting the blocks on the Ukraine money but wholeheartedly in support of the Israel money. Thus the Trumpists (as it is that which drives the issue, according to O'Brien) are indeed supporting Putins regime against the Ukrainians. But those same Trumpists are more than comfortable with ongoing Isreal actions. UK and EU countries will just have to stump up for Ukraine. And I suspect Palestinians too when the moment comes. And be prepared for a change should the Trumpists win come November, though the Trumpists are endeavuring to exercise control over foreign policy for the last 12 months of Bidens tenure.

 

[BrianV]

My take on the commentary was that the Republican Party is putting the blocks on the Ukraine money but wholeheartedly in support of the Israel money. Thus the Trumpists (as it is that which drives the issue, according to O'Brien) are indeed supporting Putins regime against the Ukrainians. But those same Trumpists are more than comfortable with ongoing Isreal actions. UK and EU countries will just have to stump up for Ukraine. And I suspect Palestinians too when the moment comes. And be prepared for a change should the Trumpists win come November, though the Trumpists are endeavuring to exercise control over foreign policy for the last 12 months of Bidens tenure.

God bless America.

 

[BrianV]

Ukraine Emerges as Battleground in US-Russia Nuclear Contest​

Published Feb 04, 2024 at 5:00 AM EST
ukraine-battleground-us-russia-nuclear-contest-uranium-1866338

 

[Muck Spreader]

Philips O'Brien commentary of the situation in Washington. And the comment that part of the Republican Party - the Trumpist's are in effect operating for the Putin regime.

Weekend Update #66: Its always been about Ukraine--Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts

Its always been about Ukraine—Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts Speaker Johnson dropped all pretence yesterday. Above all other issues, the Republican leadership in the House is desperate to stop any US aid to Ukraine. With it becoming obvious that the Senate was going to move forward soon on a bill that had aid for Ukraine and Israel, and some concessions to the Republicans to make it work, Johnson went nuclear to try and get aid to Ukraine removed from any bill. Johnson sent this letter to Republicans in the House saying that a bill will aid for Israel, but without the spending cuts that he had demanded previously, would soon be sent for a vote. However, aid for Ukraine was not mentioned.​ ​ Its disingenuous on so many levels. The House has been the most obstructive on the funding bills, first tying them to Biden making a major compromise on the border, which the president did. However, once Biden moved on the border, Johnson and the House leadership decided that was not enough, and backed off any bill that had aid for Ukraine. The Speaker, at that point called any compromise bill “dead on arrival”. Now, we have a panic-stricken response by Johnson to the real prospect that the Senate in the next few days will approve a compromise bill with aid for Ukraine. He is trying to pre-empt the bill by passing aid for Israel without any preconditions. After all his huffing and puffing, now no compromise on the border or spending cuts are needed. He even threatens the Senate with obstruction if they pass the aid bill for Ukraine. So, once the dust settles its clear that the Republican leadership in the House doesn’t really want spending cuts, doesn’t really want a border bill—but under no circumstances wants aid to Ukraine. The Republican priority is now undeniable, and undeniably shameless. How will it work out? I’m starting to lose hope (though its not all gone). I’ve always thought that aid to Ukraine had a better than 50-50 chance because there are clear majorities in both houses of Congress in favor and because Johnson, once he became speaker, actually moderated his rhetoric on aid for Ukraine—clearly saying it could be passed if a deal on the border was reached. Now, that compromise language is gone. Things are not hopeless, however, as the Senate will almost certainly pass an aid bill for Ukraine. At that point there will be negotiation between House and Senate. It will take the Senate to back down, accepting aid for Israel without aid for Ukraine, to fully throw Ukraine under the bus. I don’t know enough about the feeling in the Senate to say if they will remain firm on Ukraine. The other option would be for pro-Ukraine House Republicans to basically threaten Johnson’s position—however they have shown themselves time and again to be weak. Its hard to see them making a stand here. One thing to watch is if Trump continues to drop in the polls. This move by Johnson is clearly being driven in the House by the Trump-acolytes (or Trumpolytes). With Trump almost certainly to be the nominee, Johnson is obviously terrified of making him upset. If Trump looks like a loser, however, that could help. Again, I would not get my hopes up too much—but its a possibility. Ultimately I’ve moved from 60-40 thinking aid for Ukraine would pass to 60-40 thinking it wont. Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices. Europe and Ukraine better get ready (more on that next week). Share

"Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices."

Trump is Putin's Quisling in the US and always has been. Just a matter of how long it takes the MAGA rednecks to realise this.

 

[essex man]

"Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices."

Trump is Putin's Quisling in the US and always has been. Just a matter of how long it takes the MAGA rednecks to realise this.

Yes, if only people would just wake up and smell the coffee.
Bit like the brexiteers, when will they realise it's a disaster.
It's an interesting way to view things, other people just need to realise they are wrong and you are right.
Your average "redneck" may already "know" this about trump and not think it important?

 

[BrianV]

"Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices."

Trump is Putin's Quisling in the US and always has been. Just a matter of how long it takes the MAGA rednecks to realise this.

Not sure Trump is Putin’s quisling any more than any others, he just looks at things from the other sides point of view & acts accordingly where as Biden takes a one dimensional view of things

 

[renewablejohn]

Russia Has Massed 500 Tanks For An Attack On Kupyansk. Thousands Of Ukrainian Drones Await Them.

Can a swarm of two-pound drones, even thousands of them, defeat 500 tanks and 650 fighting vehicles as they attack behind a wall of artillery fire? We may find out.

www.forbes.com

Article is quite well written but has a key factual error which will totally screw the outcome. The FPV drone distance is no longer 2km but 25km. At that sort of distance you cannot sneek up and cause havoc.

 

[Hindsight]

"Putin has basically taken over a wing of the Republican Party and is driving their policy choices."

Trump is Putin's Quisling in the US and always has been. Just a matter of how long it takes the MAGA rednecks to realise this.

I doubt they will realise this as you hope and expect. Ukraine is a country far away of which the redneck knows little. As is most of the world. Yet dollars are being spent, why? Can see every day same said here in UK. Even on TFF. The Russian KGB state will draw it out a little longer yet.

 

[BrianV]

Nothing like a good old war to keep the $$$ rolling in.

America is exporting more arms than ever. Here’s why.​

Record arms exports are a sign of America’s commitment to Europe — and its foreign policy failures during the war in Ukraine.

By Nicole Narea@nicolenarea Feb 4, 2024, 8:00am EST

us-arms-exports-2023-ukraine-war-russia-gaza

 

[BrianV]

I doubt they will realise this as you hope and expect. Ukraine is a country far away of which the redneck knows little. As is most of the world. Yet dollars are being spent, why? Can see every day same said here in UK. Even on TFF. The Russian KGB state will draw it out a little longer yet.

Ukraine has served it's purpose to America & now it's all the responsibility of Europe.