US Dairy Herd

[unlacedgecko]

65% of the Nation’s Dairy Herd Lives On 1,000-Plus-Cow Operations

While dairy operations with less than 500 cows make up 80% of the nation’s dairy farms, the majority of cows within the nation’s herd reside on farms with 1,000 animals or more.

www.dairyherd.com

Consolidation continuing at breakneck speed across the pond. 39% reduction in dairy farmers from 2017-2022.

@delilah

 

[delilah]

65% of the Nation’s Dairy Herd Lives On 1,000-Plus-Cow Operations

While dairy operations with less than 500 cows make up 80% of the nation’s dairy farms, the majority of cows within the nation’s herd reside on farms with 1,000 animals or more.

www.dairyherd.com

Consolidation continuing at breakneck speed across the pond. 39% reduction in dairy farmers from 2017-2022.

@delilah

These guys get it:

https://nfu.org/

'fighting for a fair market and against corporate monopolies'.

If only we had a union in the UK that understood the root cause.

 

[Dead Rabbits]

It’s got to the point that raw milk production is so capital intensive it’s not far off dairy processing…..

Times are definitely a changin over here. One thing not in there is where the milk is now being produced. Its left areas very short of milk and long on processing and demand. It’s left our processing very vulnerable to disruption.

I have a decent idea what the large farms (mega ~100k cows) cop is. Right about 35p. Surely leaves some meat on the bone for the rest of us.

 

[kiwi pom]

65% of the Nation’s Dairy Herd Lives On 1,000-Plus-Cow Operations

While dairy operations with less than 500 cows make up 80% of the nation’s dairy farms, the majority of cows within the nation’s herd reside on farms with 1,000 animals or more.

www.dairyherd.com

Consolidation continuing at breakneck speed across the pond. 39% reduction in dairy farmers from 2017-2022.

@delilah

Are farms expanding because they have to or because they want to?
I know it's popular to blame everyone else.
I know a few folks in charge of decent sized farming businesses, and I've never heard one say they are expanding again because they can't feed their family.

 

[kiwi pom]

It’s got to the point that raw milk production is so capital intensive it’s not far off dairy processing…..

Times are definitely a changin over here. One thing not in there is where the milk is now being produced. Its left areas very short of milk and long on processing and demand. It’s left our processing very vulnerable to disruption.

I have a decent idea what the large farms (mega ~100k cows) cop is. Right about 35p. Surely leaves some meat on the bone for the rest of us.

I watch a YouTuber up in New York state, his latest vid has him taking delivery of another massive Deere, all be it second hand, it made me wonder what his milk price and COP is. Nice chap but god he spends some money on equipment, not sure he's at 2000 milkers yet.

 

[unlacedgecko]

It’s got to the point that raw milk production is so capital intensive it’s not far off dairy processing…..

Times are definitely a changin over here. One thing not in there is where the milk is now being produced. Its left areas very short of milk and long on processing and demand. It’s left our processing very vulnerable to disruption.

I have a decent idea what the large farms (mega ~100k cows) cop is. Right about 35p. Surely leaves some meat on the bone for the rest of us.

That was the impression I got from my visit. All confinement dairies feeding a TMR, most of which is grown with irrigation.

Lots of similarities to feedlot beef. Be an interesting exercise to compare the calorific value of food produced vs the calorific value of oil used in it's production.

 

[bigw]

I was speaking to a guy i know who milks around 1000 in Texas that said his COP was around 38ppl if my maths were correct. He buys in virtually all his feed and it was that that was killing his costs at the moment. He said labour was a huge problem where he was and if he wanted to make the next jump in investment then reckoned it would be to about 5000 cows. The US has the land available for large scale dairying, i find it quite fascinating and guess it will continue to consolidate.

 

[Headless chicken]

That was the impression I got from my visit. All confinement dairies feeding a TMR, most of which is grown with irrigation.

Lots of similarities to feedlot beef. Be an interesting exercise to compare the calorific value of food produced vs the calorific value of oil used in it's production.

suspect there is no other option though due to the weather extremes they face there. 60 degree swings in Dakota summer to winter would be normal I think?

 

[Boysground]

Bg Junior was in Washington State this time last year. Biggest unit he was on milked 38000 (not a typo) on one site. Junior says it’s one of the best managed units he has ever been on. Mexican labour all legal and all union members. The other thing he says is the number of few 1000 cow units that are empty. They will move state for milk price, and if there are environmental issues.

The farm he worked on in Canada has just built another barn to go from 2000 to 3000. With the Canadian quota system and the farm doing their own on site processing that’s some serious profit.

Bg

 

[Headless chicken]

My understanding (and quite happy to
Believe I’m wrong) is they’ve not had enough rain in areas where they run a lot of beef sucklers on the plains. This has meant they’ve killed a lot more out than normal resulting in reduced calf numbers. This in turn has sent the beef trade through the roof over $1000 on 7 day old Angus calves I’ve seen posted. Couple this with sexed semen and a poor dairy price, dairies have been breeding hard to beef resulting in fewer available heifers.
also some states seem to have a total ban on expansion or any new dairies I believe California? The expansion has been pushed into areas such as South Dakota where they needed it as the crop farmers couldn’t ship to market very easily but weather is much less forgiving. They’ve had to invest in free stalls instead of lots which limit capacity and increases cost to do so.

Pretty sure I also read that 65% of Texas dairy is in the pan handle which has currently burnt more area in 2 weeks than the whole of the fires last year combined.

and they’ve just spent a load of money increasing plant capacity to accommodate more milk …..

 

[milkloss]

Anyone have news on the Texas fires? Doesn’t look good.

 

[Blue.]

I watch a YouTuber up in New York state, his latest vid has him taking delivery of another massive Deere, all be it second hand, it made me wonder what his milk price and COP is. Nice chap but god he spends some money on equipment, not sure he's at 2000 milkers yet.

I think they milk a lot more cows than they let on,there's a 3k cow herd near me and they are doing far less.

 

[Dead Rabbits]

Are farms expanding because they have to or because they want to?
I know it's popular to blame everyone else.
I know a few folks in charge of decent sized farming businesses, and I've never heard one say they are expanding again because they can't feed their family.

It’s the Pareto principle in real time.


They are largely all expanding because they have to. Everyone has different motivations and I won’t pretend to know them all, but raw milk production is very simple.

New technologies allow more capital and labor efficiencies, adopt these to lower your cost of production and the rest of the industry does too. If you don’t keep improving to remain competitive you fall behind. Some are happy enough with this but some aren’t. Unfortunately a business that is not expanding is slowly dying. It may be a slow death, but death it is.

 

[unlacedgecko]

It’s the Pareto principle in real time.


They are largely all expanding because they have to. Everyone has different motivations and I won’t pretend to know them all, but raw milk production is very simple.

New technologies allow more capital and labor efficiencies, adopt these to lower your cost of production and the rest of the industry does too. If you don’t keep improving to remain competitive you fall behind. Some are happy enough with this but some aren’t. Unfortunately a business that is not expanding is slowly dying. It may be a slow death, but death it is.

6% inflation means expand by 6% per year or go backwards.

Of course, some commentators say real inflation is 10%, and then ag input inflation is higher still. I've heard 15% or even 20% thrown around.

6% is scary enough!

 

[daveydiesel1]

6% inflation means expand by 6% per year or go backwards.

Of course, some commentators say real inflation is 10%, and then ag input inflation is higher still. I've heard 15% or even 20% thrown around.

6% is scary enough!

Each man can only do so much work though. Even with tech a dairy farmer can only work so many cows until he need help, then theres 2 houses to keep out of it. End up in a vicious circle which is dead on when milk is paying but when its not what happens then. Thee still has to be a place for a man with around 100 cows and doing some of the tractor jobs himself, if that becomes unviable then how is there hope for any dairy farms

 

[ollie989898]

It's ironic given that the USA used to have vast native grasslands and thousands of bison. Now people can't make it work without growing irrigated maize and alfalfa with equipment into the millions.

 

[Jonny B88]

It's ironic given that the USA used to have vast native grasslands and thousands of bison. Now people can't make it work without growing irrigated maize and alfalfa with equipment into the millions.

The power of mans ambition and ego right there!

 

[livestock 1]

6% inflation means expand by 6% per year or go backwards.

Of course, some commentators say real inflation is 10%, and then ag input inflation is higher still. I've heard 15% or even 20% thrown around.

6% is scary enough!

Agriculture in this country operates on the same principles. Expand otherwise you are automatically in reverse

 

[Dead Rabbits]

It's ironic given that the USA used to have vast native grasslands and thousands of bison. Now people can't make it work without growing irrigated maize and alfalfa with equipment into the millions.

Cheap oil

 

[Dead Rabbits]

Each man can only do so much work though. Even with tech a dairy farmer can only work so many cows until he need help, then theres 2 houses to keep out of it. End up in a vicious circle which is dead on when milk is paying but when its not what happens then. Thee still has to be a place for a man with around 100 cows and doing some of the tractor jobs himself, if that becomes unviable then how is there hope for any dairy farms

Just be realistic about the market you are in. Market price will settle somewhere around what the big boys globally can produce it for.

What is your competitive advantage in milk production ? Every farm needs a competitive advantage in their market