Where is UK agriculture going to be in 20 years time?

[Yale]

I’m struggling to see where government policy is going to go.

Currently we have the supply issues and the next year or two will be disrupted however if a Covid vaccine is successful then the lure of cheap imported food will be irresistible to a cash strapped government.

Business as was usual?

 

[glasshouse]

I’m struggling to see where government policy is going to go.

Currently we have the supply issues and the next year or two will be disrupted however if a Covid vaccine is successful then the lure of cheap imported food will be irresistible to a cash strapped government.

Business as was usual?

I think there will be plenty unemployment without creating more by importing cheap food.
I predict a new act of parliament
“Food from our own resources 2021!”

 

[roscoe erf]

older by about 20 years

 

[yellowbelly]

I think there will be plenty unemployment without creating more by importing cheap food.
I predict a new act of parliament
“Food from our own resources 2021!”

I hope you're right, but there's a lot of votes for politicians in cheap food.

If ever there was a time to make a case for maximising home production, this must be it.
We need a new 'messiah', to emerge from our ranks, who can keep 'banging the message home' to those who make the decisions.

 

[ewald]

I wonder if climate change, giving weather extremes around the world, will divert the politicians and supermarkets from their 'cheapest possible ' policy.
We are seeing (with the current ppe problems) that relying on imports to cover shortages is a risky policy - hopefully this thought might be applied to food in the future.
But I wouldn't bet on it. Memories are short and people are stupid....

 

[Lazy Eric]

I wonder if climate change, giving weather extremes around the world, will divert the politicians and supermarkets from their 'cheapest possible ' policy.
We are seeing (with the current ppe problems) that relying on imports to cover shortages is a risky policy - hopefully this thought might be applied to food in the future.
But I wouldn't bet on it. Memories are short and people are stupid....

Very true in this day and age.. Common sense these days is extremely rare , and the people in power have none anymore...
Once time has passed it will all be back to the shallow sh!t show it was before covid19.

 

[som farmer]

it is all short term policies these days, s/mkts work on a 6 month basis, everything is manipulated to reduce excess stock, transport etc is screwed etc, efficiency is the buzz word, tills automatically update the depot, which then allocates replacement stock, for overnight delivery.. Farming's problem, is everything we do, is long-term, funded upfront, the s/mkt pay, after the item is sold.
The bigger firms, are generally run by accountants, the same ones will be there post c19, if they had a highly profitable system pre c19, they will want the same system post c19. Therefor something has to happen, for change to occur, those can be summed up as the following. Shareholders wanting a more ethical policy, unlikely, customers demanding UK product, temporary, if at all, Guv policy change, possible, or product availability, likely.
So, what will happen, I suspect nothing much, guv will be desperate to keep food costs low, customers will need cheaper foods, as taxation will rise, the shareholders will not want value to drop, and morality went years ago.
What we would like to happen is, imports more difficult, therefor more UK product, customers demanding more UK product, guv policy on food supply, altering to more home produce, and morality to re-appear.
I leave it for everybody, to make their own conclusions.

 

[deleted user 837354]

Forget what the government is thinking and get on with paddling your own canoe. In reality this is all it has ever been about. Does the market want something, if so, how do you provide that requirement within the constraints of your own business/resources and skillset?

Relying on the government I would say historically has never worked.

 

[Yale]

Forget what the government is thinking and get on with paddling your own canoe. In reality this is all it has ever been about. Does the market want something, if so, how do you provide that requirement within the constraints of your own business/resources and skillset?

Relying on the government I would say historically has never worked.

Surely their policies have a great impact.

Thing is what is their long term policy....I haven’t a clue.

 

[deleted user 837354]

Surely their policies have a great impact.

Thing is what is their long term policy....I haven’t a clue.

Possibly, be good if they knew what they were doing, must less anyone else. Changes every 5 minutes anyway. Best to forget it. Forget any free money schemes they have in mind and farm.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Paddle your own Canoe
Independent. Dont rely on anyone else
What a load of bull.
Even a Canoe relies on a flow of water before it can float
No such thing

 

[deere 6600]

Paddle your own Canoe
Independent. Dont rely on anyone else
What a load of bull.
Even a Canoe relies on a flow of water before it can float
No such thing

Why don't we actually get out there and advertise our industry we are absolutely crap at it it might not make much difference but a bit of effort might help

 

[Yale]

Why don't we actually get out there and advertise our industry we are absolutely crap at it it might not make much difference but a bit of effort might help

The logical solution is to direct market to consumers and forget commodities.

And so the spiral of importing food continues.

 

[Bald Rick]

One thing is for sure ... both Scotland and Wales will want their own Ag policies. Whether they will be more “farming” friendly is doubtful though

Hopefully long retired (or happily dead) by 2040

 

[Barleycorn]

I hope you're right, but there's a lot of votes for politicians in cheap food.

If ever there was a time to make a case for maximising home production, this must be it.
We need a new 'messiah', to emerge from our ranks, who can keep 'banging the message home' to those who make the decisions.

Food has been cheap for years, it's just the middlemen racking it up, some more than others. That's why a decent British steak is half the price in Aldi than in Waitrose.

 

[GeorgeK]

The Chinese will have taken over, we will work as slaves in the giant bat farms

 

[deleted user 837354]

The Chinese will have taken over, we will work as slaves in the giant bat farms

Your novel enterprise qualifies for EU diversification support. Here is 110 million euros.

 

[suffolksmallholder]

Looking at the state of some arable fields in a 30 mile radius of here, and in particular those who grew parsley this year, I'm wondering if 'intensive' agriculture will suddenly come to an abrupt end with total crop failure. This wet winter really showed that the big machines trash anything and everything and ok they will grow next years crop but the way the paddocks are treated I'm still amazed anything will grow afterwards.
Cheap food will be only one of our worries. We've proved that the world won't end with reducing pollution to acceptable levels to an almost sustainable level in two weeks of shut down! Will the 'uman race be able to sustain not flying/driving and will we have an opportunity to keep this amazing opportunity going? We'll all have immunity to this virus in 24 months and life will get back to its mad normal.....Or not so mad.....Robotic farming will raise its head & may well be the future.
Looking at the FT, companies aren't going bust or the solid ones aren't. The food stores are doing ok for now. Local is good.
SS

 

[delilah]

It's a marketplace.
You want to know where supply will be ? Then you need to look at where demand will be.
More buyers = more sellers. Less buyers = less sellers.

The TFF stats give you the answer:
Livestock (ie beef, sheep) : 20k threads.
Dairy: 3.7k threads
Pig and poultry: 308 threads.
Allow the marketplace to carry on its current trajectory and you can see exactly where its all going.
Last one out, shut the gate.

 

[Chris123]

When the Coronavirus restrictions first came in I thought it might be good for farming long term with food security in potential situations like this in future seeing a change in the way farming in the uk is valued.
Now I’m not so sure, yes supermarket shelf’s were empty for a time of certain items largely down to people panic buying, but have we really run short of anything. Call me pessimistic but unless supermarket shelf’s are literally empty in the coming weeks it may work the other way with government pointing to this situation and saying we never ran short of imports when half the planet was on lockdown and agreeing trade deals for cheap food and kicking on with plans to turn this country into a national park