Written by Tom Allen-Stevens
Reports that bread prices will rise have been dismissed by industry experts, but the greater concern may be the potential impact on trade negotiations as the end of the Brexit transition period draws near. Tom Allen-Stevens reports Fears are growing for the impact of the worst harvest farmers have gathered in 40 years.This year’s UK wheat harvest is estimated to fall to around 10M tonnes – around two-thirds of what growers brought in the barn last year, and well below domestic consumption of around 14.7M tonnes. The picture on oilseed rape may be grimmer still, with AHDB estimating national yields at 2.6-3.0t/ha. With a total crop harvested estimated at around 390,000ha, this will bring in around half the domestic rapeseed requirement. The harvest horrors have prompted national news outlets, including the BBC, to report bread and flour prices are set to rise. But the price of wheat does not translate “directly and proportionately” to the price of bread, according to AHDB head of market specialists David Eudall. “We estimate that the value of wheat in an 800g loaf of bread stands at only 11%,” he says. “With a small harvest and increased imports, our domestic milling wheat prices have been…
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