Will SFI cause a cycle of boom & bust?

[Jackov Altraids]

The budget for SFI is the same as when SPS first started. It was about £100/ acre then, which would be worth about £55/ acre now. So if everybody that claimed BPS, claimed SFI on the same area as before, and on similar value options, that is what we would all get paid. This would probably not cover the cost of fulfilling the option.
With this in mind, it almost certainly won't affect those claiming in the first year, as it will under subscribed. But by the third year, it could happen.
You would then imagine all those who had completed the 3 years would not renew their options.
This process could create years of boom and bust based on how many farmers are tied to ELMS.

I'm probably talking nonsense but thought it might be worthy of discussion. . . . . . .

 

[livestock 1]

Think of the current year in arable. Drought wet then shyt prices with high costs. Bad autumn for drilling Big tax bills in January and July ahead with poor returns ahead.
They are likely to play safe and grow sfi thistles
How will this affect straw and feed for livestock farms? Food production?
It’s Armageddon

 

[Bury the Trash]

that's where we're lucky, being able to be mixed, few fields of Barley oats helps Sheep/Beef cattle keeping no end.

ive been invited to apply but im gradually going off the idea tbh, and with young people around me who are keen to farm i might avoid it all together.
but yes that's easier to do on a smaller acreage i except.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

Think of the current year in arable. Drought wet then shyt prices with high costs. Bad autumn for drilling Big tax bills in January and July ahead with poor returns ahead.
They are likely to play safe and grow sfi thistles
How will this affect straw and feed for livestock farms? Food production?
It’s Armageddon

I can imagine a lot of arable will this year and when they are seen to do well out of it, a helluva lot more farmers could do it in the second year. This could push the cost of herbal leys/bird food etc. sky high. This could make SFI costs high while payments are reduced due to the budget being exceeded.
At the same time, returns from farming could peak as production drops.
It could make this job and even bigger gamble than it already is.

 

[livestock 1]

I can imagine a lot of arable will this year and when they are seen to do well out of it, a helluva lot more farmers could do it in the second year. This could push the cost of herbal leys/bird food etc. sky high. This could make SFI costs high while payments are reduced due to the budget being exceeded.
At the same time, returns from farming could peak as production drops.
It could make this job and even bigger gamble than it already is.

The arable farmers I’ve spoken to are keen to put plenty into sfi they know what they are going to get and they are getting rid of the risk
Two years down the line see what happens

 

[Jackov Altraids]

I'm not sure they all realise that they can't actually be sure that they will get what they think they are going to get.
And that is without the unknown possible outcomes of a "visit".

 

[Wombat]

Think of the current year in arable. Drought wet then shyt prices with high costs. Bad autumn for drilling Big tax bills in January and July ahead with poor returns ahead.
They are likely to play safe and grow sfi thistles
How will this affect straw and feed for livestock farms? Food production?
It’s Armageddon

Is food production our problem as farmers? I don’t think so, if my wheat goes for biofuel or is burnt for power or dumped at sea as long as I can make some money at it does it matter.

same with our cows, if the beef is eaten in the U.K., exported or dumped what’s it matter.

it’s been one of the worst autumns and starts to winter in living memory so I will try and make a bit of money how ever I can. If that’s food, ok if it’s power, biofuel or something else that’s fine with me.

 

[Devil's advocate]

Think of the current year in arable. Drought wet then shyt prices with high costs. Bad autumn for drilling Big tax bills in January and July ahead with poor returns ahead.
They are likely to play safe and grow sfi thistles
How will this affect straw and feed for livestock farms? Food production?
It’s Armageddon

Will arable farmers have big tax bills? Claiming some back more likely.

Sheep producers possibly but arable is on its knees.

 

[MrNoo]

Will arable farmers have big tax bills? Claiming some back more likely.

Sheep producers possibly but arable is on its knees.

Yes, as inputs were cheap, prices through the roof re Ukraine, there’s only so many new Fendt’s you can buy!! Obviously this years books will be the opposite

 

[livestock 1]

Will arable farmers have big tax bills? Claiming some back more likely.

Sheep producers possibly but arable is on its knees.

Takes a lot of sheep to create a tax bill selling at 260p a kilo and buying feed in at £400
Yes arable will have a tax bill

 

[livestock 1]

Is food production our problem as farmers? I don’t think so, if my wheat goes for biofuel or is burnt for power or dumped at sea as long as I can make some money at it does it matter.

same with our cows, if the beef is eaten in the U.K., exported or dumped what’s it matter.

it’s been one of the worst autumns and starts to winter in living memory so I will try and make a bit of money how ever I can. If that’s food, ok if it’s power, biofuel or something else that’s fine with me.

Of course it matters that the next person does well out of your product
You should try to produce food that’s the market you rely on
If you grow thistles you are just telling you customers you don’t want them any more didn’t ever need them and giving them the two fingers for all the previous years they have kept you in business
That attitude is a bad mistake but I hear it all the time
You are a link in a chain nothing more or were by the sound of it

 

[captain useless]

Of course it matters that the next person does well out of your product
You should try to produce food that’s the market you rely on
If you grow thistles you are just telling you customers you don’t want them any more didn’t ever need them and giving them the two fingers for all the previous years they have kept you in business
That attitude is a bad mistake but I hear it all the time
You are a link in a chain nothing more or were by the sound of it

Once we stop producing in this country and start growing thistles and docke then our customers will source food and produce from overseas even more ..... once you lose a market for your goods its very difficult to get it back .
We were at a dinner yesterday in Newent and the after dinner speaker ( a well known forum member from Hereford) was referring to a 600 acre farm near Hereford was going into all environmental schemes and re-wilding and that will be food producing ground lost for generations to come . Back in the 70's&80's there were grants to bring those patches of ground into food production and now ,when the country is bursting to the seams with hungry mouths , there are grants to take it out of food production! This country is going mad!

...he is right !

 

[livestock 1]

Once we stop producing in this country and start growing thistles and docke then our customers will source food and produce from overseas even more ..... once you lose a market for your goods its very difficult to get it back .
We were at a dinner yesterday in Newent and the after dinner speaker ( a well known forum member from Hereford) was referring to a 600 acre farm near Hereford was going into all environmental schemes and re-wilding and that will be food producing ground lost for generations to come . Back in the 70's&80's there were grants to bring those patches of ground into food production and now ,when the country is bursting to the seams with hungry mouths , there are grants to take it out of food production! This country is going mad!

...he is right !

They aren’t mad though. It’s a bigger plan. They intend to use carbon credits as control make processed food out of god knows what. The country is in debt thats obvious can’t be paid back. A financial reset is on the cards with carbon as the excuse. Cashless society. The mega rich taking over a large part of food supply.
Wether it will happen is a different story. I’m hoping in two years they will see the light and reverse on some of this. I don’t think their intentions are honourable.

 

[Spud]

I don't worry about what I can't control, which is most things

Stewardship has been strategically useful here for compliance with water regs and convenience of working for 30yrs

It will continue to do so under SFi

 

[Steevo]

The arable farmers I’ve spoken to are keen to put plenty into sfi they know what they are going to get and they are getting rid of the risk
Two years down the line see what happens

Frying pan.
Fire.

Perhaps?

 

[gone up the hill]

Will arable farmers have big tax bills? Claiming some back more likely.

Sheep producers possibly but arable is on its knees.

The sheep job has not been anywhere near as good the last two years as you make out Devils advocate!

Summer 22 there was a severe drought and store lambs were making £50/60 head and that would be pen after pen.. prime lambs £100/110 head for months ( well they are no better now either ), not much chance of a tax bill with those prices!

 

[Hfd Cattle]

Once we stop producing in this country and start growing thistles and docke then our customers will source food and produce from overseas even more ..... once you lose a market for your goods its very difficult to get it back .
We were at a dinner yesterday in Newent and the after dinner speaker ( a well known forum member from Hereford) was referring to a 600 acre farm near Hereford was going into all environmental schemes and re-wilding and that will be food producing ground lost for generations to come . Back in the 70's&80's there were grants to bring those patches of ground into food production and now ,when the country is bursting to the seams with hungry mouths , there are grants to take it out of food production! This country is going mad!

...he is right !

I was there ....should have come introduced yourself! !

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

I'm not sure they all realise that they can't actually be sure that they will get what they think they are going to get.
And that is without the unknown possible outcomes of a "visit".

Why? The rates are there for all to see.

 

[Hfd Cattle]

The sheep job has not been anywhere near as good the last two years as you make out Devils advocate!

Summer 22 there was a severe drought and store lambs were making £50/60 head and that would be pen after pen.. prime lambs £100/110 head for months ( well they are no better now either ), not much chance of a tax bill with those prices!

The sheep job going forward is a tad worrying as well. I don't knowcabout other areas but around here the scanning isn't exactly ringing the bell and ewes suffering in this weather ...feed still a premium !

 

[Will Blackburn]

My thoughts are, that most folks will be slow on the uptake, so plenty of money to go round for a while. The RPA will have modelled uptake for budgeting purposes.

What concerns me most is the inspections, after giving the appearance of a more flexible approach, by civil servants looking to justify their existence.