azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
you surprise me wobs,,,you a netweather man!the animation has been bang on for 13months.
the jet stream
- Thread starter azimuth
- Start date
Stoxs
Member
- Location
- Andover , Hampshire
the jet has not taken 18months to go south it was up north earlyer in the winter!
Yes for the last 12months it has been alot further south than normal but nothing to say it will stay there .
Yes for the last 12months it has been alot further south than normal but nothing to say it will stay there .
azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
10 days accurate is pretty good going on the BBC standard of forcasting.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
No probs Stox,they are both crucial regards what weather we receive here in this little part of the world.
this small lump of rock in the Ocean is a forecasters nightmare and always will be regards the erratic zonal patterns.
Stoxs
Member
- Location
- Andover , Hampshire
thats what makes me laugh when people complain about inaccurate weather forecasts.
Its like trying to pin a tail on an Ant with a very small pin.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
10 days is easy under the current synoptics (blocking).
A blind man on a galloping horse could call the next 240hrs no probs.But will they pan out as the models show? (NO)
cold,bitter night time temps and dry days,piece of cake really.They wont all the breakdown though and that's the worry regards very wet conditions from the west.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
I do forecasts for most of my mates around here simply because they are mates and friends.
over 8 year i have learned how to predict our own unique microclimate associated with the area.Never get it bang on everytime but a lot more accurate than regional media forecasts.
over 8 year i have learned how to predict our own unique microclimate associated with the area.Never get it bang on everytime but a lot more accurate than regional media forecasts.
azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
netweather.com served me well last year,including the animation.will stick with it this year.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
Have a word with the likes of Ian,Matt and any other well thought of model reader.
Mystic Meg is more accurate than anything the GFS puts out.Infact most agencies ignore it past 96hrs.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
the moisture is my main worry when it decides to open up to the Atlantic.That coupled with a strong block to the North and East is a recipe for disaster up here when we start lambing on the 18th.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
Need high pressure to form and build from the South,nothing showing of value yet.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
It hasn't and will never be bang on.it is a projected model forecast and subject to vast variations.
Remember Netweather.tv use the GFS for their model predictions.there are numerous other systems issuing output as you must well know.
the METO totally disregard the GFS past 96 hrs.
there in lies a tale don't ya think?
Animation is a cartoon simple as that.
azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
ive heard(ducks) Wobs Fart before and Not make a ripple on the water
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
bit like synchronised swimming then?
looks great on the telly but a right feckin mess underwater.
looks great on the telly but a right feckin mess underwater.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
Good grounding is unless you have major model agreement past 120hrs,prepare yourself for the unknown.
so 240 hrs is la la land in my honest opinion regards detail.
so 240 hrs is la la land in my honest opinion regards detail.
- Location
- South west
http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
A good website which compares the four big models along with the positioning of the Jet and is updated twice a day. Often shows how varied the models are.
A good website which compares the four big models along with the positioning of the Jet and is updated twice a day. Often shows how varied the models are.
wobs
Member
- Location
- Northumberland
varied, wrong, nearly right,nearly wrong.
all the same unless you start to become a weather freak.
all the same unless you start to become a weather freak.
azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
just checked the jetstream projection,15th to 19th april could be reasonably warm days but then its back down again.hope im right about the first bit and wrong about the last.
azimuth
Member
- Location
- lincolnshire yellowbelly,in Derbys.
www.netweather then click on jetstream.
Simon Keeling
Member
Here's my Weatherweb.net jet stream interpretation http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsenseujet.php
It is from the GFS ensemble model, and if you monitor it daily you will be able to get a feel for the movement of the jetstream, and also consistency between the various model runs.
Happy to help and answers an questions about it if I can.
Simon
It is from the GFS ensemble model, and if you monitor it daily you will be able to get a feel for the movement of the jetstream, and also consistency between the various model runs.
Happy to help and answers an questions about it if I can.
Simon