impossible to farm?

Derrick Hughes · Apr 14, 2018

Cab-over Pete said:
Exactly. Good post. It’s not risk management or any other clever phrase, it’s just sound practice. No farmer is being clever with the weather in that scenario, they’re just farming as it should be done.

It’s one thing for a large scale arable farmer to suggest that weather can be managed. With a multi million pound turnover and other options available things should come easy.

I’d like that same farmer to go and spend a day last week with my friend who, despite spreading risk by keeping laying hens, cattle and arable, was struggling last week mid way through lambing 900+ ewes in the foul weather, virtually stacking them up 3 deep in nursery pens because turning out wasn’t an option unless he wanted to stack them up next day in a bin. Even with the sheep he spreads risk by keeping early lambers, late lambers and easycares to lamb outside. The extra work then creates problems for the other enterprises in that sprays don’t go on at the right time, contractors are asked to spread fertiliser whilst his own kit is parked in the shed and spring seed is still in the barn unplanted.

He’s a bloody good farmer and does the job as well as any other tenant farmer I’ve ever known.

It’s a different world entirely from the big owner occupier who can afford another building whenever he likes and is over kitted to crack on in good conditions.

Managing the weather. What bloody nonsense.

You have to expect the worst in Farming .I have had times in the past when weather at lambing was unbearable .500 ewes in single pens with lambs impossible to turn out . I had a 1000 hurdles in reserve for that reason . That's not being a know all but good farming practise . Ok the weather has been bad .it's been a lot worse

Godber · Apr 14, 2018

If you had good conditions in the autumn why not keep drilling and forget the spring crops as the weather might be pants and you have taken some risk away.

There are many reasons for spring crops. It might be risky growing winter cereals on Blackgrass infested ground for example.
My point is farming has always been balancing risk.

Tarw Coch · Apr 14, 2018

beefandsleep said:
You don’t know your cop until it’s dry and weighed with respect.

More to the point, you don't know your cost of production per ton sold. It's probably reasonably straight forward to estimate seed, fert and chemical costs along with figures for machinery operations which will give a total cost per acre but until you know how many tons you've got for sale you don't know your cost per ton. Again you can probably take an educated guess for an average year but that's likely to be quite a bit out on an exceptional year.

Cab-over Pete · Apr 14, 2018

Clive said:
Weather risk can be managed

Clive said:
I said I don’t recall ANYONE saying they could manage the weather ?

I have no doubt whatsoever you will be right in the end Clive, no doubt whatsoever.

Clive said:
No one can manage the weather and don’t recall anyone saying so on this thread ?

Everyone can manage their level of expose to it however

I know a man that doesn’t Farm at all - he has no exposure to weather risk

The last line is more nonsense. We are The Farming Forum, not The Every Random Business On The Planet Forum. So let’s keep it on track or maybe take @Gatehouse Farm very good advice.

I’ve no wish to lock horns with you again but you do seem to like it, which is very silly.

Sorry to the OP. I’m out.

Bossfarmer · Apr 14, 2018

Tarw Coch said:
All well and good but until you've harvested your crop you won't know your cost of production. You could have ideal growing conditions and harvest 4.5 ton of wheat or have poor growing conditions an harvest 3 ton. Your costs will be similar, probably being higher in a poor year.

costs should be worked out on a £ per acre basis not £/t surely? that way you know your costs

Tarw Coch · Apr 14, 2018

Bossfarmer said:
costs should be worked out on a £ per acre basis not £/t surely? that way you know your costs

Ok, so you work out your costs on a per acre basis, you now know your costs, but Until you know your yield and your selling price you still don't know wether you're in profit or not.

Courier · Apr 14, 2018

Bill the Bass said:
Too true. It's also not that long ago that a certain beef consultant was suggesting we all turn heifers out onto silage ground in early spring because we were only making silage to keep them in to make more silage to keep them in. Theoretically very wise, but the practice....

And when that silage ground is 4 miles away as a break in an otherwise arable area without fencing or water ??

Courier · Apr 14, 2018

Bossfarmer said:
costs should be worked out on a £ per acre basis not £/t surely? that way you know your costs

Cost per tonne of crop sold is my preference - Just as when we calculate costs for our vans we prefer to use Pence per Mile because we charge by the mile.......

glasshouse · Apr 14, 2018

Budgeting only takes you so far.
Your tractor engine may blow during the season, it has to be fixed and paid for regardless.
Some years COP could be double or half

Clive · Apr 14, 2018

glasshouse said:
Budgeting only takes you so far.
Your tractor engine may blow during the season, it has to be fixed and paid for regardless.
Some years COP could be double or half

That risk can be managed - with a warranty

4course · Apr 14, 2018

Clive said:
I do know my budget spend per acre before I even drill and it’s that that quantifies the size of the risk im planning on taking

Shall I risk £1500/ac on potatoes or £150/ac on wheat ?

Shall I put £1500 on a horse in the grand National later or £150 ?

It’s all risk and your exposure level can be managed

Everyone manages risk even if they don’t realise they are doing so

what you should have done is put your 1500 on the winner of the 2.05 at newc which was posted up on the grand national thread today, needless to say I didnt go that far but im dining out free for a few weeks , ho ho

Clive · Apr 14, 2018

My 5 year old picked Tiger Roll !

unfortunately I didn’t put a bet on for him though !

4course · Apr 14, 2018

Clive said:
That risk can be managed - with a warranty

a warranty costs does it not, as do most so called risk management strategies

Clive · Apr 14, 2018

4course said:
a warranty costs does it not, as do most so called risk management strategies

Choice is pay for a warranty or “maybe” pay fir a new engine

Not saying which is the right or wrong thing to do but it’s another example of how risk and exposure can be managed

Managing risk can cost yes but so can the consequence of unmanaged risk when your luck runs out

glasshouse · Apr 14, 2018

Clive said:
That risk can be managed - with a warranty

On a 15 yr old tractor?

Clive · Apr 14, 2018

glasshouse said:
On a 15 yr old tractor?

New tractor vs old tractor - yet another risk management stratergy in how much you have invested in machinery

Cab-over Pete · Apr 14, 2018

And yet another “strategy” (no second “r” required) not available to smaller farmers.

I know I said I’m out, but some people just don’t see the whole picture at all, do they?

Not all Farmers have the luxury of being able to make the decisions or plan risk that others have.

Old Boar · Apr 14, 2018

All this "risk management" has a cost though. When margins are tight, you can do a critical path analyis for everything you can think of, but something out of left field can leave all your figures down the drain.

Bossfarmer · Apr 15, 2018

Clive said:
New tractor vs old tractor - yet another risk management stratergy in how much you have invested in machinery

second hand will always work out cheaper if you buy wisely that running new and in warranty, being an arable farmer your prob aswell just hiring during the busy periods and using decent second hand kit for the fert spreading/spraying i cant do this as have year round workload with the sucklers muckspreading/silage etc

4course · Apr 15, 2018

This thread has prompted me to look at my arable risks. Other than weeds /disease which so long as we keep a strict control of the proposed spend by the agronomist and grow the varieties that suit our market plus a never sow spring crop until hell freezes over system boils down to getting it sown and harvesting the stuff . Which really means working 24/7 for a couple of short periods( use older cheaper gear) and always ensure we act at the first opportunity . As for marketing cash flow is king and never selling more than necessary.and not selling what we havnt got ensures we have reasonable control and a bit up our sleeve how much is weather dependent or out of our hands. Thats the easy bit, the other is controlling the spend on all the procedures/regulations/ restrictions wether govt or self inflicted that we have foisted upon us and ensuring ive ticked the box to say im an active farmer

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