impossible to farm?

[Clive]

What a absolute crock of shite, you might own a forum @Clive but you ain't fecking god, pull ya head out ya arse!

So would you grow 100% spring crops ? Or 100% winter wheat or 100% potatoes That would be high weather risk yes ?

50/50 autumn/ spring and 3 or 4 different crops etc would be managing weather (and market) risk ?

Nothing to do with owning a forum, pretty obvious common sense I reckon ?

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Keep it civil guys

 

[7610 super q]

So would you grow 100% spring crops ? Or 100% winter wheat or 100% potatoes That would be high weather risk yes ?

50/50 autumn/ spring and 3 or 4 different crops etc would be managing weather (and market) risk ?

Nothing to do with owning a forum, pretty obvious common sense I reckon ?

Winter crops quite often get killed by salt winds during winter storms here. I don't know which is least risky really.
Some places have far worse weather than others, even spread across this small island. It could be argued it's too risky growing crops in Pembs now......

 

[marcot]

Winter crops quite often get killed by salt winds during winter storms here. I don't know which is least risky really.
Some places have far worse weather than others, even spread across this small island. It could be argued it's too risky growing crops in Pembs now......

Woodworm production would probably be a safer bet in Crapweathershire [emoji2]

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Winter crops quite often get killed by salt winds during winter storms here. I don't know which is least risky really.
Some places have far worse weather than others, even spread across this small island. It could be argued it's too risky growing crops in Pembs now......

I think your overplaying that a bit , I consider you farming in one of the kindest places in the Country, I always considered that when dad emigrated from Cheshire he stopped a 70 miles to early, envy can eat you up but its had a good go at me

 

[Stevethemeat]

The best way to manage risk is to firstly know your full production costs once your in that position the risk management is a lot easier if wheat costs £100 ton to grow then 150 is an acceptable price to take forward why increase the risk hoping for £200 when it could be opposite and end up at 100 fix the majority of profit and then you have a reasonable margins to counter act the weather that you ain’t got a hope in fixing you could take a small risk then by speculating on the profit amount that’s over budget as a feel good factor or lesson teacher depending on which way the market moves

 

[Tarw Coch]

So would you grow 100% spring crops ? Or 100% winter wheat or 100% potatoes That would be high weather risk yes ?

50/50 autumn/ spring and 3 or 4 different crops etc would be managing weather (and market) risk ?

Nothing to do with owning a forum, pretty obvious common sense I reckon ?

I'm not an arable farmer but I'd have thought growing a range of crops has little to do with risk management. Crops like potatoes can only be grown on ground every 4 or 5 years, and different cereal crops are planted and harvested at various times spreading workload. tgen there's the fact that most arable farmers say you get a good crop of wheat after spuds, it's called a crop rotation. Im sure the primary reason for growing a range of crops is nothing to do with risk management although it does have the benefit of not having all your eggs in one basket but that's more a by product of a crop rotation than a reason for.

 

[4course]

I'm not an arable farmer but I'd have thought growing a range of crops has little to do with risk management. Crops like potatoes can only be grown on ground every 4 or 5 years, and different cereal crops are planted and harvested at various times spreading workload. tgen there's the fact that most arable farmers say you get a good crop of wheat after spuds, it's called a crop rotation. Im sure the primary reason for growing a range of crops is nothing to do with risk management although it does have the benefit of not having all your eggs in one basket but that's more a by product of a crop rotation than a reason for.

therein lies the reason for my forum monicker and does go a fair way with so called risk management or as I call it farming

 

[Tarw Coch]

The best way to manage risk is to firstly know your full production costs once your in that position the risk management is a lot easier if wheat costs £100 ton to grow then 150 is an acceptable price to take forward why increase the risk hoping for £200 when it could be opposite and end up at 100 fix the majority of profit and then you have a reasonable margins to counter act the weather that you ain’t got a hope in fixing you could take a small risk then by speculating on the profit amount that’s over budget as a feel good factor or lesson teacher depending on which way the market moves

All well and good but until you've harvested your crop you won't know your cost of production. You could have ideal growing conditions and harvest 4.5 ton of wheat or have poor growing conditions an harvest 3 ton. Your costs will be similar, probably being higher in a poor year.

 

[Derrick Hughes]

Risk is the spice of life

 

[Cab-over Pete]

I'm not an arable farmer but I'd have thought growing a range of crops has little to do with risk management. Crops like potatoes can only be grown on ground every 4 or 5 years, and different cereal crops are planted and harvested at various times spreading workload. tgen there's the fact that most arable farmers say you get a good crop of wheat after spuds, it's called a crop rotation. Im sure the primary reason for growing a range of crops is nothing to do with risk management although it does have the benefit of not having all your eggs in one basket but that's more a by product of a crop rotation than a reason for.

Exactly. Good post. It’s not risk management or any other clever phrase, it’s just sound practice. No farmer is being clever with the weather in that scenario, they’re just farming as it should be done.

It’s one thing for a large scale arable farmer to suggest that weather can be managed. With a multi million pound turnover and other options available things should come easy.

I’d like that same farmer to go and spend a day last week with my friend who, despite spreading risk by keeping laying hens, cattle and arable, was struggling last week mid way through lambing 900+ ewes in the foul weather, virtually stacking them up 3 deep in nursery pens because turning out wasn’t an option unless he wanted to stack them up next day in a bin. Even with the sheep he spreads risk by keeping early lambers, late lambers and easycares to lamb outside. The extra work then creates problems for the other enterprises in that sprays don’t go on at the right time, contractors are asked to spread fertiliser whilst his own kit is parked in the shed and spring seed is still in the barn unplanted.

He’s a bloody good farmer and does the job as well as any other tenant farmer I’ve ever known.

It’s a different world entirely from the big owner occupier who can afford another building whenever he likes and is over kitted to crack on in good conditions.

Managing the weather. What bloody nonsense.

 

[glasshouse]

Just been in greggs for my morning roll,
The cheapest drink by a largemargin was 500 ml of milk at 70p
250ml of fairtrade orange juice £1.10
Coke etc all about same as that, all non perishable with questionable health value.
That my friends is the crux of our problem, milk was selling at £7 a litre on ebay during the snow which shows its actual worth.
Any land can be farmed economically, but not when milk etc is worthless in the publics eyes.
What would the last loaf make on ebay?

 

[glasshouse]

All well and good but until you've harvested your crop you won't know your cost of production. You could have ideal growing conditions and harvest 4.5 ton of wheat or have poor growing conditions an harvest 3 ton. Your costs will be similar, probably being higher in a poor year.

Exactly

 

[Clive]

I'm not an arable farmer but I'd have thought growing a range of crops has little to do with risk management. Crops like potatoes can only be grown on ground every 4 or 5 years, and different cereal crops are planted and harvested at various times spreading workload. tgen there's the fact that most arable farmers say you get a good crop of wheat after spuds, it's called a crop rotation. Im sure the primary reason for growing a range of crops is nothing to do with risk management although it does have the benefit of not having all your eggs in one basket but that's more a by product of a crop rotation than a reason for.

Not having all your eggs in one basket is the very definition of managing risk

 

[Clive]

Exactly. Good post. It’s not risk management or any other clever phrase, it’s just sound practice. No farmer is being clever with the weather in that scenario, they’re just farming as it should be done.

It’s one thing for a large scale arable farmer to suggest that weather can be managed. With a multi million pound turnover and other options available things should come easy.

I’d like that same farmer to go and spend a day last week with my friend who, despite spreading risk by keeping laying hens, cattle and arable, was struggling last week mid way through lambing 900+ ewes in the foul weather, virtually stacking them up 3 deep in nursery pens because turning out wasn’t an option unless he wanted to stack them up next day in a bin. Even with the sheep he spreads risk by keeping early lambers, late lambers and easycares to lamb outside. The extra work then creates problems for the other enterprises in that sprays don’t go on at the right time, contractors are asked to spread fertiliser whilst his own kit is parked in the shed and spring seed is still in the barn unplanted.

He’s a bloody good farmer and does the job as well as any other tenant farmer I’ve ever known.

It’s a different world entirely from the big owner occupier who can afford another building whenever he likes and is over kitted to crack on in good conditions.

Managing the weather. What bloody nonsense.

No one can manage the weather and don’t recall anyone saying so on this thread ?

Everyone can manage their level of expose to it however

I know a man that doesn’t Farm at all - he has no exposure to weather risk

 

[Clive]

All well and good but until you've harvested your crop you won't know your cost of production. You could have ideal growing conditions and harvest 4.5 ton of wheat or have poor growing conditions an harvest 3 ton. Your costs will be similar, probably being higher in a poor year.

I know my cost of production pretty much before I plant a seed. Only thing I don’t know is what my gross output will be

The level of my costs is the size of the risk I’m taking and that is managed and not just random

 

[beefandsleep]

I know my cost of production pretty much before I plant a seed. Only thing I don’t know is what my gross output will be

The level of my costs is the size of the risk I’m taking and that is managed and not just random

You don’t know your cop until it’s dry and weighed with respect.

 

[Cab-over Pete]

No one can manage the weather and don’t recall anyone saying so on this thread ?

Everyone can manage their level of expose to it however

I know a man that doesn’t Farm at all - he has no exposure to weather risk

I don’t recall mentioning your name in my post.

Interesting you should think I did.

 

[Clive]

I don’t recall mentioning your name in my post.

Interesting you should think I did.

I said I don’t recall ANYONE saying they could manage the weather ?

 

[Clive]

You don’t know your cop until it’s dry and weighed with respect.

I do know my budget spend per acre before I even drill and it’s that that quantifies the size of the risk im planning on taking

Shall I risk £1500/ac on potatoes or £150/ac on wheat ?

Shall I put £1500 on a horse in the grand National later or £150 ?

It’s all risk and your exposure level can be managed

Everyone manages risk even if they don’t realise they are doing so