Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Frank-the-Wool said:
The announcement on tariffs this morning in the event of a No Deal which we no know will not happen (perhaps) by the smallest majority.
However these tariffs need to be considered as a likely outcome in the event of a negotiation when we leave the EU.

For sheep it is effectively a good plan as it is in reality the status quo as there are already quotas for NZ and Australia. What is far more worrying are the proposals on beef.

While the quota appears to be reduced in quantity the tariff rate has effectively been halved on a first come first served basis. This could have the effect of sucking in low priced beef from both the EU and South America. Luckily the way it reads is that cuts and whole carcase will be at the same rate and part of the quota. However it indicates that there will be pressure on beef prices as we are the highest price in the EU!

I think they have put high tariffs on beef as a shot across the bows ( so too speak ) of Ireland, the Irish beef industry will be finished if their beef is at 53/60%, especially given that the Irish government are making life as difficult as possible for the Irish beef industry to export live cattle to the middle East etc ( plenty of boats taking 12000 head a time went last year ) if that market isn't there in the next 12 months and they cant export beef to the UK then they have a serious problem.

Beef farmer · Mar 13, 2019

gone up the hill said:
I think they have put high tariffs on beef as a shot across the bows ( so too speak ) of Ireland, the Irish beef industry will be finished if their beef is at 53/60%, especially given that the Irish government are making life as difficult as possible for the Irish beef industry to export live cattle to the middle East etc ( plenty of boats taking 12000 head a time went last year ) if that market isn't there in the next 12 months and they cant export beef to the UK then they have a serious problem.

Boats docked in irish ports holding 12k cattle? Got any links, would love see that.

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Beef farmer said:
Boats docked in irish ports holding 12k cattle? Got any links, would love see that.

Yep they do, ( maybe less than 12000 head per boat ) but plenty of buyers go to Ireland every year to buy the cattle, last year they had ads all over FB looking for live Irish cattle to export, they have a strict criteria of what they will take.

Been a big argument a few weeks ago as the Irish Gov would not give the buyers permission this year to enter Ireland to buy the cattle.

neilo · Mar 13, 2019

andybk said:
only new suppliers , NZ and aus can still fulfill their quota

But they haven't done so for years. Having import tarrifs on lamb isn't going to help the sheep industry one jot, we are a net exporter.

Beef farmer · Mar 13, 2019

gone up the hill said:
Yep they do, ( maybe less than 12000 head per boat ) but plenty of buyers go to Ireland every year to buy the cattle, last year they had ads all over FB looking for live Irish cattle to export, they have a strict criteria of what they will take.

Been a big argument a few weeks ago as the Irish Gov would not give the buyers permission this year to enter Ireland to buy the cattle.

Ah yeah i understand the export a lot of live cattle, it was the size of container that i woukd love to see. The worlds largest only hold 20k

Top Tip. · Mar 13, 2019

NZ and Australian lamb is not a threat as far as I can see. Our lamb is cheaper than there’s at the moment.

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Beef farmer said:
Ah yeah i understand the export a lot of live cattle, it was the size of container that i woukd love to see. The worlds largest only hold 20k

I know one buyer was looking for 12000 head for one shipment last year so I assumed it was on one boat but of course could have been on 2/3 boats.

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Top Tip. said:
NZ and Australian lamb is not a threat as far as I can see. Our lamb is cheaper than there’s at the moment.

NZ had a very bad lambing last spring due to very bad weather and Australia killed tens of thousands of sheep due to the severe drought they endured so numbers are well down in both country's currently.

Top Tip. · Mar 13, 2019

Beef on the other hand is a different story,plenty of countries out there that can produce beef way cheaper than we can,even with a tariff on it they could probably undercut us on price.

Celt83 · Mar 13, 2019

There was a boat on the program mighty ships a couple of years ago and it was colossal. I think it was hauling 20,000 cattle from Australia to Saudi Arabia.

The best part of it was the compressed air feeding system, and the cattle put weight on over the course of the journey.

Beef farmer · Mar 13, 2019

Celt83 said:
There was a boat on the program mighty ships a couple of years ago and it was colossal. I think it was hauling 20,000 cattle from Australia to Saudi Arabia.

The best part of it was the compressed air feeding system, and the cattle put weight on over the course of the journey.

De salanates 600k liters of water a day.

Frank-the-Wool · Mar 13, 2019

gone up the hill said:
I think they have put high tariffs on beef as a shot across the bows ( so too speak ) of Ireland, the Irish beef industry will be finished if their beef is at 53/60%, especially given that the Irish government are making life as difficult as possible for the Irish beef industry to export live cattle to the middle East etc ( plenty of boats taking 12000 head a time went last year ) if that market isn't there in the next 12 months and they cant export beef to the UK then they have a serious problem.

I think you have misunderstood what I have said and what the tariff proposals are.
The Tariff on beef has actually been reduced from over 12% to over 6%, this means that beef will come in more cheaply as remember we will be a Third country. This tariff rate is lower than the EU rate and so will allow beef in more cheaply.
Part of the reason for the need for a Border in Ireland!!

While this was planned for a No Deal Brexit, I believe it shows what the likelihood is for a future deal with other countries.
The sheep issue as has been pointed out is irrelevant as our prices are lower than both NZ and Australia, however caution needs to be taken as this is NOT carcase equivalent and legs could still come here and undercut ours which we rely on!

Werzle · Mar 13, 2019

Frank-the-Wool said:
The announcement on tariffs this morning in the event of a No Deal which we no know will not happen (perhaps) by the smallest majority.
However these tariffs need to be considered as a likely outcome in the event of a negotiation when we leave the EU.

For sheep it is effectively a good plan as it is in reality the status quo as there are already quotas for NZ and Australia. What is far more worrying are the proposals on beef.

While the quota appears to be reduced in quantity the tariff rate has effectively been halved on a first come first served basis. This could have the effect of sucking in low priced beef from both the EU and South America. Luckily the way it reads is that cuts and whole carcase will be at the same rate and part of the quota. However it indicates that there will be pressure on beef prices as we are the highest price in the EU!

Tariffs on beef were tiered on a quota system with the last ninety five thousand tons being set fairly high which would have made uk beef a cheaper bet even at record prices for us but thats been voted down by the looks. Thats the reason firms have been stockpiling beef to try and keep a lid on the price, now we could end up with a beef mountain which will be drawn from everytime theres a slight beef price rise.

neilo · Mar 13, 2019

gone up the hill said:
I know one buyer was looking for 12000 head for one shipment last year so I assumed it was on one boat but of course could have been on 2/3 boats.

So you made a number up to suit your argument, again? It’s a bugger when people question it.

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

neilo said:
So you made a number up to suit your argument, again? It’s a bugger when people question it.

No one has made up any number.

The buyer wanted 12000 head of cattle to export live in one shipment, which implied it was 12000 head on one boat, may have been one boat/ may have been 2/3 boats, only someone sad like you who is trying to make himself look clever when your not

cares if it was one or ten boats, the point is that Ireland are very worried about their beef industry as the live export market is being prevented by their own Gov and they may not be able to export to the UK in the event of a no deal at the same time.

And its not an argument, its fact that Ireland exports tens of thousands of live cattle a year but currently their own government are making it very difficult for Irish farmers to do this.

If those cattle do end up in the UK on the hook in 6/12 months time then it will effect the UK beef price.

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Frank-the-Wool said:
I think you have misunderstood what I have said and what the tariff proposals are.
The Tariff on beef has actually been reduced from over 12% to over 6%, this means that beef will come in more cheaply as remember we will be a Third country. This tariff rate is lower than the EU rate and so will allow beef in more cheaply.
Part of the reason for the need for a Border in Ireland!!

While this was planned for a No Deal Brexit, I believe it shows what the likelihood is for a future deal with other countries.
The sheep issue as has been pointed out is irrelevant as our prices are lower than both NZ and Australia, however caution needs to be taken as this is NOT carcase equivalent and legs could still come here and undercut ours which we rely on!

Beef tariff is shown as 53%, can you explain why its shown at that figure by the Gov but your saying it will actually be only 6%?

Been clear for a while that the UK beef industry is more at risk long term than the UK sheep industry ref prices.

Timbo · Mar 13, 2019

3.24 for clean at abp this week.

cull cows · Mar 13, 2019

Timbo said:
3.24 for clean at abp this week.[/QUOTE
That’s a insult

gone up the hill · Mar 13, 2019

Timbo said:
3.24 for clean at abp this week.

Which factory?

cull cows · Mar 13, 2019

What are Woodheads on this week

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