Beef / Lamb & Pig Price Tracker

[Chae1]

How lows it going to go?

Father said it was back to £3.25 in 2016, i can't remember it being that low.

 

[cull cows]

I got told today buy a buyer for a big firm that it’s hit the bottom now

 

[gone up the hill]

How lows it going to go?

Father said it was back to £3.25 in 2016, i can't remember it being that low.

No one really can say how low it will go but it could well get down to around the £3/kilo mark, I cant see it dropping below the magic £3 figure.

 

[Samcowman]

3.24 for clean at abp this week.

 

[neilo]

Been clear for a while that the UK beef industry is more at risk long term than the UK sheep industry ref prices.

The beef industry, being a net importer, is more at risk from reduced import tarrifs. The sheep industry, being a net exporter, is more at risk from having export markets effectively closed.

Neither are going to prosper from the suggested no-deal scenario.

 

[gone up the hill]

The beef industry, being a net importer, is more at risk from reduced import tarrifs. The sheep industry, being a net exporter, is more at risk from having export markets effectively closed.

Neither are going to prosper from the suggested no-deal scenario.

Sheep numbers worldwide are very low.

Cattle numbers worldwide are high.

Supply will govern prices brexit or no brexit.

 

[PercyBlakeney]

With regards to beef import tariffs, I think it is important to note that currently the vast majority of UK beef imports are from the EU and are subject to no tariffs anyway. According to the government tariff document (some 1477 pages) and advisory notes to go with, they have put in place a tariff free quota system on a first come first served basis for beef imports.

These are open to all countries both EU and Non-EU. The quota volumes set out don't cover the amount we are currently import from the EU, and what imports we do get from outside the EU most likely come in through a EU free trade agreement or tariff quota such as the Hilton beef quota. So beef that is currently tariff free is going to be subject to tariffs.

I think when @Frank-the-Wool talks about 6% tariffs he was referring to the actual tariff rate set by the government which does vary a little from product to product but one example would be fresh carcases: 6.8% of the value of the consignment + 93.3 euro/100kg of the volume. The 50 ish% of EU tariff figure that has been in the press today refers to the UK tariff relative to the current EU most favoured nation tariff - i.e third country tariff rates, which we would be subject to in a no deal. So the equivalent EU tariff for carcase is: 12.8% + 176.80kg/100kg.

So both figures are correct but just expressed in very different ways - which can be misleading IMHO. Apologies for taking the thread off topic a little but as a keen follower just wanted to have put my 50p down as quite interested in international trade anyway.

Also, this only comes in to effect in a no deal scenario which looks a little more unlikely after todays debates in the House of Commons.

 

[bosses son]

How lows it going to go?

Father said it was back to £3.25 in 2016, i can't remember it being that low.

It will go as low as people are willing to sell them for. We need to stop booking, then they will soon go up.

 

[livestock 1]

It will go as low as people are willing to sell them for. We need to stop booking, then they will soon go up.

Cost too much to keep to hold them

 

[sherg]

Cost too much to keep to hold them

If they're knocking on the door of the weight limit they've got to go or you'll really pee them away

 

[bosses son]

Cost too much to keep to hold them

I know, but there comes a time when we have to say no.

 

[Frank-the-Wool]

With regards to beef import tariffs, I think it is important to note that currently the vast majority of UK beef imports are from the EU and are subject to no tariffs anyway. According to the government tariff document (some 1477 pages) and advisory notes to go with, they have put in place a tariff free quota system on a first come first served basis for beef imports.

These are open to all countries both EU and Non-EU. The quota volumes set out don't cover the amount we are currently import from the EU, and what imports we do get from outside the EU most likely come in through a EU free trade agreement or tariff quota such as the Hilton beef quota. So beef that is currently tariff free is going to be subject to tariffs.

I think when @Frank-the-Wool talks about 6% tariffs he was referring to the actual tariff rate set by the government which does vary a little from product to product but one example would be fresh carcases: 6.8% of the value of the consignment + 93.3 euro/100kg of the volume. The 50 ish% of EU tariff figure that has been in the press today refers to the UK tariff relative to the current EU most favoured nation tariff - i.e third country tariff rates, which we would be subject to in a no deal. So the equivalent EU tariff for carcase is: 12.8% + 176.80kg/100kg.

So both figures are correct but just expressed in very different ways - which can be misleading IMHO. Apologies for taking the thread off topic a little but as a keen follower just wanted to have put my 50p down as quite interested in international trade anyway.

Also, this only comes in to effect in a no deal scenario which looks a little more unlikely after todays debates in the House of Commons.

Many thanks for explaining this in the correct detail @PercyBlakeney, I did not have the time last night to go into the detail.

This is not off topic at all and despite last nights vote the scenario could still happen. I also believe that this is very likely to be the position we will end up in after any negotiations with the EU. While not a disaster for the beef trade it will apply downward pressure on prices.

 

[Northeastfarmer]

44 kilo beltex £170 @Northeastfarmer at Wigton today although there was only 2 hoggs at that price 38/44 kilos beltex selling between £125/£170 all day long

Moving in the right direction at least

 

[Demolition Man]

Looks like the Irish already solved their tariff issues

 

[yellowbelly]

fresh carcases: 6.8% of the value of the consignment + 93.3 euro/100kg of the volume.

So the equivalent EU tariff for carcase is: 12.8% + 176.80kg/100kg.

So both figures are correct but just expressed in very different ways - which can be misleading IMHO.

Why, oh why does everything have to be so complicated?

It's the detail of stuff like this that bogs everything down and the reason that mere mortals, like us, can't understand why it takes politicians so long to sort deals out

 

[yellowbelly]

Looks like the Irish already solved their tariff issues

It's the Irish border thing that's causing the biggest bug bear in the whole Brexit shambles.

Sadly there are too many 'wide boys' (I hesitate to use the word crooks) who are eager to profit from any loopholes in the system - just look at previous examples, e.g. running cattle back and forth across the border to claim EEC export restitutions and the horse meat scandal.

 

[andybk]

It's the Irish border thing that's causing the biggest bug bear in the whole Brexit shambles.

Sadly there are too many 'wide boys' (I hesitate to use the word crooks) who are eager to profit from any loopholes in the system - just look at previous examples, e.g. running cattle back and forth across the border to claim EEC export restitutions and the horse meat scandal.

needs to be part of the trade agreement that anyone found "getting around the issues" face very punitive fines and loss of future cross border trading , just so leo and ones north of the border understand its not a smugglers charter . The stakes are to high for the wide boys to £**k it up .

 

[Smith31]

I got told today buy a buyer for a big firm that it’s hit the bottom now

I am not disputing your claim, so please don't take offence...but how does he know? surely it's based on supply and demand and there are so many variables to take into account such as Brexit etc which will all influence price

In the lead up to easter hopefully prices will shoot up they need to.I do hope he is right

 

[Full of bull(s)]

needs to be part of the trade agreement that anyone found "getting around the issues" face very punitive fines and loss of future cross border trading , just so leo and ones north of the border understand its not a smugglers charter . The stakes are to high for the wide boys to £**k it up .

They have too much power and money to be controlled. If you are in any doubt watch this link about a certain Mr Goodman from the early nineties. The long arm of the law isn’t long enough to reach men like him and never will be

 

[livestock 1]

I am not disputing your claim, so please don't take offence...but how does he know? surely it's based on supply and demand and there are so many variables to take into account such as Brexit etc which will all influence price

In the lead up to easter hopefully prices will shoot up they need to.I do hope he is right

We have noticed before that there is no bottom unfortunately.
On this occasion I think we are actually at the bottom or near to to