Getting concerned

Gong Farmer

Member
BASIS
Location
S E Glos
Seriously bad news in the yellow pages, today, p46.

"farm manager Julian Gold has calculated the cost of the weather on the farm’s bottom line, having drilled ……. just 30% of his intended winter wheat area.

As a result, he has revised his wheat yields down from 11t/ha to 8.5t/ha "
Anyone remember '20 tonnes by 2020'? Ironically it might be nearer 6 than 20.
 

Flat 10

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Fen Edge
Seriously bad news in the yellow pages, today, p46.

"farm manager Julian Gold has calculated the cost of the weather on the farm’s bottom line, having drilled ……. just 30% of his intended winter wheat area.

As a result, he has revised his wheat yields down from 11t/ha to 8.5t/ha "
Have you seen the agronomist bottom page 60 who (incredibly bravely or with complete sarcasm) opened with "some very useful rain has fallen over the downs this weekend................." !!!!????:eek::stop::wideyed::wacky::finger::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 

bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
Have you seen the agronomist bottom page 60 who (incredibly bravely or with complete sarcasm) opened with "some very useful rain has fallen over the downs this weekend................." !!!!????:eek::stop::wideyed::wacky::finger::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:

Yes, all this seems to have been sent in about 6 or7 weeks ago.

"Oilseed rape crops look excellent . . . "

Procam.
 

Kildare

Member
Location
Kildare, Ireland
Problems all over EU
Screenshot_20191129_100049.jpg
 

czechmate

Member
Mixed Farmer
Seriously bad news in the yellow pages, today, p46.

"farm manager Julian Gold has calculated the cost of the weather on the farm’s bottom line, having drilled ……. just 30% of his intended winter wheat area.

As a result, he has revised his wheat yields down from 11t/ha to 8.5t/ha "


Having a target wheat yield of 11 t/ha is probably where it starts to go wrong, not to mention the weather.
 

colhonk

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
Had a train ride from Thornaby to Sunderland (supposed to get off at Seaham but the train was ramed full and they would not stop because more people waiting to get on:facepalm:)anyway,saw no corn drilled at all,couple of fields of OSR sown and crikey, 3 fields of wheat still not combined.bad job up here.
 

Cowcorn

Member
Mixed Farmer
Jeez, it's as much as I can manage to aspire to a mediocre 8.5t, long term whole farm average.
I wouldnt give a fig what the crop yields only what profit i can make . My wheat both continous and first often hits close on 5 ton acre but the cost is getting out of control . At the current cost of fert and chemicals it is a waste of time and im seriously looking for a more profitable route even if it involves losing yield . Remember its leftover not turnover that you feel in your pocket .
 

Flat 10

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Fen Edge
I wouldnt give a fig what the crop yields only what profit i can make . My wheat both continous and first often hits close on 5 ton acre but the cost is getting out of control . At the current cost of fert and chemicals it is a waste of time and im seriously looking for a more profitable route even if it involves losing yield . Remember its leftover not turnover that you feel in your pocket .
True but I have often thought it’s easier to catch a few notes when there’s more floating past you..,.
 

Cowcorn

Member
Mixed Farmer
True but I have often thought it’s easier to catch a few notes when there’s more floating past you..,.
Ah yes youre right, but the problem is the five ton years always seem to be the poor price ones!! Now if i was a clever fella and sold all the wheat forward last November at 200euro+ a ton i would be laughing but no i foolishly held of selling anything and it went at 175 in Oct which is not going to paint the town red . Intrestingly enouugh a field of spring wheat that got most of its fert from dung yielded 3.6 ton acre on a cheap chemical programe but it cut late and also with the loss of ctl growing wheat in this wet climate is going to become a real challenge .
 

Flat 10

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Fen Edge
Ah yes youre right, but the problem is the five ton years always seem to be the poor price ones!! Now if i was a clever fella and sold all the wheat forward last November at 200euro+ a ton i would be laughing but no i foolishly held of selling anything and it went at 175 in Oct which is not going to paint the town red . Intrestingly enouugh a field of spring wheat that got most of its fert from dung yielded 3.6 ton acre on a cheap chemical programe but it cut late and also with the loss of ctl growing wheat in this wet climate is going to become a real challenge .
I would love 3.6t at 175euro!!!!!
 

Grass And Grain

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Yorks
I wouldnt give a fig what the crop yields only what profit i can make . My wheat both continous and first often hits close on 5 ton acre but the cost is getting out of control . At the current cost of fert and chemicals it is a waste of time and im seriously looking for a more profitable route even if it involves losing yield . Remember its leftover not turnover that you feel in your pocket .
It isn't any easier when you average 3.5t.

I keep asking myself the same question as you.

Cheapest thing for me to do would be to sel all my machinery, ring a contractor up and get an off farm job. BUT, I worry about getting blackgrass in on said contractors machinery, poor timeliness and deteriorating soil structure.

Stewardship scheme might be better (if we get paid).

Impressive yield you are achieving.
 

Cowcorn

Member
Mixed Farmer
It isn't any easier when you average 3.5t.

I keep asking myself the same question as you.

Cheapest thing for me to do would be to sel all my machinery, ring a contractor up and get an off farm job. BUT, I worry about getting blackgrass in on said contractors machinery, poor timeliness and deteriorating soil structure.

Stewardship scheme might be better (if we get paid).

Impressive yield you are achieving.
Equally impressiive spend on it unfortunately, with only 220 acres of cropping in cluding maize there is not much scope for major investment in new kit and as im now a one man band with casual help at busy times taking on more land at the current silly rents and other penny paying arragements just to " spread mach costs " is anything but attractive . Watching " six metre mickey ' the local large operator working in a six acre field definitely rules out getting a contractor . Yields would surely fall but not costs with his approach
Problem is im to old to fool myself and i can remember wheat at the same price as today and input costs were half of todays. My father often cut 3 ton acre in the late seventies with one weed spray and maybe two fungicedes. Maybe varities were more robust and needed less care . Todays varieties are like forumla one cars the need a full team behind them !!!
As im also a dairy farmer i m looking at how going back to British friesan jersey cross cows lowered yields but lifted solids and PROFIT while making life easier . The holstiens were like high input wheat the could yield but only if the got the full works and the could generate bills like nobodys business !!! The kept everyone from meal salesmen , vets, ai, hoof parers, etc busy. Very same thing is happening in Arable farming we are working for everyone but ourselves.
Hopefully the silver lining to the shitty weather this backend will be that the equally shitty looking wheat crops will make more money than the barnbusters because the price will rise with the small crop . And maybe just maybe we will resist the tempation to pour on chemical to" protect potential " .
 

bankrupt

Member
Location
EX17/20
My father often cut 3 ton acre in the late seventies with one weed spray and maybe two fungicedes.

So did we.

Since then, unfortunately, the BM in Bayleton BM, the CF in Bayleton CF, and almost everything in isoproturon has all been banned.

:banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead::banghead:

edit:- this is probably why land was more expensive in 1979 than it is today.
 
Last edited:

puntabrava

Member
Location
Wiltshire
Equally impressiive spend on it unfortunately, with only 220 acres of cropping in cluding maize there is not much scope for major investment in new kit and as im now a one man band with casual help at busy times taking on more land at the current silly rents and other penny paying arragements just to " spread mach costs " is anything but attractive . Watching " six metre mickey ' the local large operator working in a six acre field definitely rules out getting a contractor . Yields would surely fall but not costs with his approach
Problem is im to old to fool myself and i can remember wheat at the same price as today and input costs were half of todays. My father often cut 3 ton acre in the late seventies with one weed spray and maybe two fungicedes. Maybe varities were more robust and needed less care . Todays varieties are like forumla one cars the need a full team behind them !!!
As im also a dairy farmer i m looking at how going back to British friesan jersey cross cows lowered yields but lifted solids and PROFIT while making life easier . The holstiens were like high input wheat the could yield but only if the got the full works and the could generate bills like nobodys business !!! The kept everyone from meal salesmen , vets, ai, hoof parers, etc busy. Very same thing is happening in Arable farming we are working for everyone but ourselves.
Hopefully the silver lining to the shitty weather this backend will be that the equally shitty looking wheat crops will make more money than the barnbusters because the price will rise with the small crop . And maybe just maybe we will resist the tempation to pour on chemical to" protect potential " .
As Brisel pointed out a while ago, price will only rise to equal cost of importing. The speculators should be keeping an eye on the Black Sea weather.
 

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