Combinables Price Tracker

lloyd

Member
Location
Herefordshire
None really. Just opening the book for wheat already emerged. If it's my worst sale of the year I'll be happy enough. Just trying to hedge a long position i.e. wheat sown and not sold.

I get all that but if you look at at the spread of prices in the USA ,
they are alot closer for next harvest than ours .
I would say our forward prices are undervalued but nothing is a certainty.
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
I get all that but if you look at at the spread of prices in the USA ,
they are alot closer for next harvest than ours .
I would say our forward prices are undervalued but nothing is a certainty.

Some bullish stories in the trade, hence the price rise to a level I can make a profit at. Just locking some in. Never mind what the others are doing. Ask me in 18 months whether that was right or not.
 

Sheeponfire

Member
Some bullish stories in the trade, hence the price rise to a level I can make a profit at. Just locking some in. Never mind what the others are doing. Ask me in 18 months whether that was right or not.
I have to say it looks tempting...

Is trade rising too fast??

Or as another poster said a few weeks back... "just wait till the trade actually wakes up to how little UK wheat there is about"

Or let's be honest.. Its just where it really needs to be...

Thoughts???
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
I have to say it looks tempting...

Is trade rising too fast??

Or as another poster said a few weeks back... "just wait till the trade actually wakes up to how little UK wheat there is about"

Or let's be honest.. Its just where it really needs to be...

Thoughts???

I've said this before & I'l say it again - yes, there's a small UK crop but we are already importing cargoes and prices are at import parity. They won't go much further than that except for a merchant short and the technical rise the UK market has as Nov 20 comes off the board & tenders have to be in or positions closed to avoid physical delivery as paper positions expire. Look outwards into the global marketplace.

Big global stocks, but who has them and what condition are they in?
How big was the Northern Hemisphere harvest for the major exporters in the end?
Nov 20 LIFFE is £188.20. Is that not a good price to sell old crop at? Jan 21 is less than that!

 
the spread between 2020 harvested grain and 2021 harvested grain is now at the highest it has been
the questions are

is 2020 grain of the right spec is in shorter supply
plenty of grain with low hagburg or ergot spring wheat or gp1 (skyfall)

was there less carried over of high enough spec

is 2021 harvested grain grain too cheap

dry in the discounter countries russia and ukraine
french planting way behind

now being offered over 200 delivered for lower hagburg soft wheat

after christmas soft gp3 wheat will have a high import tariff
 

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