N prices end UK milling wheat production?

fudge · Aug 20, 2021

farenheit said:
Classic attempt to corner the market!

The market is already cornered. TBF government policy is geared towards exporting food production with it’s inherent CO2 emissions. Importing flour, obviously with the correct carbon certification, fits well with this policy goal.

milkloss · Aug 20, 2021

Does the wheat price have a cap? I see Egypt is going to start doubling the price of bread…… could be trouble like ‘77.

'How will we live?': Egyptian bread price hike alarms the poor

Plans to raise the price of bread for the first time in 44 years have shocked Egyptians already struggling to get by in a country where state-subsidised loaves have kept the poorest basically fed since the 1960s.

www.reuters.com

Courier · Aug 20, 2021

Clive said:
yep - so whose going to carry on growing miller’s in the uk at current premium ?

Who indeed ? - Maybe those with a dairy farmers approach .....

Clive · Aug 20, 2021

farenheit said:
Classic attempt to corner the market!

if i could move markets I would be a (very wealthy) trader not a farmer !

warksfarmer · Aug 20, 2021

Clive said:
Given current N prices my calculations say milling wheat is no longer viable vs feed unless premiums increase significantly

anyone else thinking similar ? will everyone grow more feed ?

Seriously thinking about dumping milling and just going for an old school barn filling feed wheat because of the fert prices. It’s just a cartel and it needs investigating. Just another con to shaft farmers.

Stick with milling for spring wheat though as 3t/ac is doing very well indeed so you might as well get a premium but when winter milling varieties are only doing 3t as well then it’s not worth it.

Farmer Roy · Aug 21, 2021

Milling wheat is what we grow, what our major export markets are & our climate is suited to, too many other choices for feed grains to really bother with feed wheat here
N price is just one issue, the bigger one is availability. Just can’t access urea at the moment . . .

Will Blackburn · Aug 21, 2021

Courier said:
Who indeed ? - Maybe those with a dairy farmers approach .....

Three year lead time in dairy and no forward sales available, and the once premium liquid market, the less said about that the better.

traineefarmer · Aug 21, 2021

It's a good thing that the same organisation that controls and regulates the grain market doesn't also control and regulate the inputs market. It would make the whole thing look like a cartel conspiracy..... :scratchhead:

........... Errr.. :scratchhead:

..........HANG ON A MINUTE!

Courier · Aug 21, 2021

Will Blackburn said:
Three year lead time in dairy and no forward sales available, and the once premium liquid market, the less said about that the better.

And its 20 years since the general milk price was first over 27ppl

DrWazzock · Aug 21, 2021

It’s a bit like my winter malting barley v spring barley dilemma. Now the pain of drying green grains is over and we have just harvested some spring barley at 2.5 t per acre would I have been any better off with winter barley for malting for a paltry premium tied into a contract and which often struggled to achieve 3t and needed nursing all the way through winter and usually ended up rejected for malting. Probably not. All sold so far for average £155 / ton feed. I’m happy.
Premium crops are going to need real premiums if people are going to make the effort. The days of being grateful for £6 are over.

Farmer Roy · Aug 21, 2021

The premiums for milling are significant over feed grains . . .

texelburger · Aug 21, 2021

You could give up RT if no longer growing wheat for milling.

yellow belly · Aug 21, 2021

milkloss said:
Does the wheat price have a cap? I see Egypt is going to start doubling the price of bread…… could be trouble like ‘77.

'How will we live?': Egyptian bread price hike alarms the poor

Plans to raise the price of bread for the first time in 44 years have shocked Egyptians already struggling to get by in a country where state-subsidised loaves have kept the poorest basically fed since the 1960s.

www.reuters.com

Egypt usually has at least 6 months in stock
the army took over a few years ago because the government was not seen to be buying enough food
the Egyptians have very long memories of famine and take food security very seriously
they do not want to have to be hand to mouth

holwellcourtfarm · Aug 21, 2021

Clive said:
takes us at least 40-60kgs more N to get protein and millers rarely yield quite so well as a group 4

Crops don’t always make quality so you would need to factor maybe 1 ot 2 years in 5 where the extra N doesn’t increase gross output ?

plus lower yields and 1 or 2 extra passes through the crop with applications

all for £10-20 premium

Would you mind explaining the facts and impact of that to the National Food Strategy team (including the NFU representation) in relation to their conclusions about less UK livestock and raising UK arable area and output?

They seem to have utterly overlooked the economic reasons why arable producers grow feed varieties of wheat and barley (or biscuit wheats- biscuits have no nutritional value in our diets).

The more I think about that report the less impressed I am with it.

Steevo · Aug 23, 2021

Has the milling premium increased with the recent grain price rises? As I recall when wheat was £100/t the milling premium was the same £20/t.

Lincsman · Aug 24, 2021

Steevo said:
Has the milling premium increased with the recent grain price rises? As I recall when wheat was £100/t the milling premium was the same £20/t.

Always been around £20, in the days of £65/tonne it was like and extra ton/acre.

Courier · Aug 24, 2021

Lincsman said:
Always been around £20, in the days of £65/tonne it was like and extra ton/acre.

Now if the premium was based on 30% instead of a flat rate that could maintain a UK supply.

John Slejpner · Aug 25, 2021

Steevo said:
Has the milling premium increased with the recent grain price rises? As I recall when wheat was £100/t the milling premium was the same £20/t.

Skyfall was too good / reliable for too long, especially in any non first wheat slot.
Now outclassed

John Slejpner · Aug 25, 2021

And i agree with the thought process driving Clive's original post.

Steevo · Aug 25, 2021

Some fag packet figures:

This article suggests 40kg extra N per ha needed to raise protein levels.
£400/t for urea at 46%N.

87p per kgN.

So that extra 40kg costs £35/ha.

Milling premium of £20/t (if you're lucky) x 8t/ha crop = £160/ha

As @Clive says though, need to factor in the years that you don't hit milling, the potential yield loss from feed varieties, cost of T3 fungicide, extra combining capacity needed to get it in the barn before hagberg falls, and any potential drying that this could entail also.

Not to mention that the milling market almost disappeared earlier this year when the millers decided they would rather import German wheat instead.

Growing feed wheat is much less stressful too.

N prices end UK milling wheat production?

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Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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