Fertiliser Price Tracker

lloyd · Nov 8, 2021

I can see much reduced demand from livestock
farmers as there was so much surplus fodder made
this time.I can buy fodder at the moment cheaper than
making it with fertiliser priced at £300t, not today's prices.

teslacoils · Nov 8, 2021

Demand destruction means yield reduction. Apply worldwide. Especially if fert is being kept by countries to support its subsistence farmers. Even larger reduction in tradable grain surely?

Planet Bee · Nov 8, 2021

teslacoils said:
Demand destruction means yield reduction. Apply worldwide. Especially if fert is being kept by countries to support its subsistence farmers. Even larger reduction in tradable grain surely?

depends on local Nitrogen Use Efficiency, I suppose

would be useful if AHDB updated their RB209 to accommodate higher prices in order to truly answer the question

teslacoils · Nov 8, 2021

Can't plan for nitrogen efficiency. You've got to be a bit speculative on future grain prices, or there would be no fun.

Wheat going in every where right now.

Jackov Altraids · Nov 8, 2021

lloyd said:
I can see much reduced demand from livestock
farmers as there was so much surplus fodder made
this time.I can buy fodder at the moment cheaper than
making it with fertiliser priced at £300t not today's prices.

The days of cheap food are numbered. That includes food for livestock.

Only the very bravest will increase production in the current climate. This is likely inflate all prices further.

lloyd · Nov 8, 2021

Jackov Altraids said:
The days of cheap food are numbered. That includes food for livestock.

Only the very bravest will increase production in the current climate. This is likely inflate all prices further.

They could well be numbered but cheap fodder is a fact at this moment in time.

Chae1 · Nov 8, 2021

lloyd said:
They could well be numbered but cheap fodder is a fact at this moment in time.

It's not up here. We had a very poor summer for grass growth.

Poor harvest too. So not much spare straw.

teslacoils · Nov 8, 2021

Jackov Altraids said:
The days of cheap food are numbered. That includes food for livestock.

Only the very bravest will increase production in the current climate. This is likely inflate all prices further.

It's not really possible for me to increase production, merely swap land into different crops. So I'm down 40ac of grass but up 40ac of wheat. And fert use will actually drop for that. Slightly.

There seems to be more osr about. It's also a lovely forecast and early November which I'm sure will see more spring land go into wheat. I tried to tempt dad to swap the spring barley for wheat but he's sticking with the barley.

Jackov Altraids · Nov 8, 2021

lloyd said:
They could well be numbered but cheap fodder is a fact at this moment in time.

Fill your boots.

It will evaporate fast when people start doing a few calculations.

It has already evaporated around here.

lloyd · Nov 8, 2021

Jackov Altraids said:
Fill your boots.

It will evaporate fast when people start doing a few calculations.

It has already evaporated around here.

Have been £30t ex good stuff.
Just had a look in the Devon area
loads of stuff for sale cheap .
No shortage most places ,lots of cattle still outside
across the country.
It does seem a tad dearer up with you Chae1.

Will Blackburn · Nov 8, 2021

lloyd said:
Have been £30t ex good stuff.
Just had a look in the Devon area
loads of stuff for sale cheap .
No shortage most places ,lots of cattle still outside
across the country.
It does seem a tad dearer up with you Chae1.

Too soon to see the effects, the chickens will come home to roost only in new year 2023.

Will Blackburn · Nov 8, 2021

Planet Bee said:
depends on local Nitrogen Use Efficiency, I suppose

would be useful if AHDB updated their RB209 to accommodate higher prices in order to truly answer the question

The price of N has no bearing on NUE.
RB209 suggests reducing rates at higher prices.
NUE increases at lower rates.
There will be exceptions, but lower rates produce lower yields, contrary to popular opinion we don't put the stuff on for no return.

Planet Bee · Nov 8, 2021

teslacoils said:
Can't plan for nitrogen efficiency. You've got to be a bit speculative on future grain prices, or there would be no fun.

Wheat going in every where right now.

as one of my mates in the industry says, "....there's a big crop in the ground..."

Seems that he's right this year - his name, in case you're wondering, is Walter Wall...

lloyd · Nov 8, 2021

Will Blackburn said:
Too soon to see the effects, the chickens will come home to roost only in new year 2023.

Correct but that has no affect on fertiliser demand this spring.

Planet Bee · Nov 8, 2021

Will Blackburn said:
The price of N has no bearing on NUE.
RB209 suggests reducing rates at higher prices.
NUE increases at lower rates.
There will be exceptions, but lower rates produce lower yields, contrary to popular opinion we don't put the stuff on for no return.

100% agree Will.

I suppose I was highlighting more the £/kg value of the different Nitrogen options rather than taking a straight calculation.

However, it now looks like rather being an issue of, "has it got Nitrogen in it? Ok, send it...". If not now, then maybe in Q1 when the proverbial hits the fan.

Buy little; buy often. Same with sales I guess. At least you've spread the risk.

teslacoils · Nov 8, 2021

I was actually thinking about sulphur! It's all well and good getting hold of straight N products, but is there a shortage of sulphur? If you don't put any on, you soon know about it.

Planet Bee · Nov 8, 2021

teslacoils said:
I was actually thinking about sulphur! It's all well and good getting hold of straight N products, but is there a shortage of sulphur? If you don't put any on, you soon know about it.

There's quite a big Sulphur shortage from what I hear

First off, due to covid shutdowns in industry where Sulphur is the waste product, granular Ammonium Sulphate has been scarcer; same story as CO2 from NH3 production...

Second. The domestic production of NS grades (from somewhere near Chester) has been shutdown since mid-September. It's rumoured that this plant may well restart shortly but that's only likely to service the existing backlog of NS grades on their books. All hypothetically speaking, of course.

Nowthenblue · Nov 8, 2021

teslacoils said:
I was actually thinking about sulphur! It's all well and good getting hold of straight N products, but is there a shortage of sulphur? If you don't put any on, you soon know about it.

Polysulphate is a good option in this situation where N is covered but Sulphur still required.
Kieserite can also do the job, but is around £70-80/t more expensive for very similar Sulphur content.
Sulphate of Potash too, but up another pricing level.

Polysulphate - Natural Fertilizer for All Crops & Soils | ICL

Polysulphate is the four-in-one natural fertilizer (P, Mg, Ca, S) with exceptional nutritional characteristics and low carbon footprint. Granular, mini granules or fine grade.

polysulphate.com

bobk · Nov 8, 2021

Nowthenblue said:
Polysulphate is a good option in this situation where N is covered but Sulphur still required.
Kieserite can also do the job, but is around £70-80/t more expensive for very similar Sulphur content.
Sulphate of Potash too, but up another pricing level.

Polysulphate - Natural Fertilizer for All Crops & Soils | ICL

Polysulphate is the four-in-one natural fertilizer (P, Mg, Ca, S) with exceptional nutritional characteristics and low carbon footprint. Granular, mini granules or fine grade.

polysulphate.com

My agro has said Polysulphate , any ideas on prices ?

Nowthenblue · Nov 8, 2021

bobk said:
My agro has said Polysulphate , any ideas on prices ?

As a guide in the high £ 220s or early £ 230s per tonne full loads, depending on month of delivery, certainly hasnt gone up at the same rate as Nitrogen fertilisers, or conventional P & K for that matter too.

Fertiliser Price Tracker

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100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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