Will Putin invade ?

oil barron · Feb 26, 2022

Crofter64 said:
A captain goes down with his ship, or not. It would have been disgraceful if he had fled and he knows it.

It’s reasonably normal for an occupied nations President to set up government oversees. Zelensky is showing great character. It was on the news that the CIA offered him a way out of Kiev. He replied I need bullets not an Uber you morons.

I had sympathy for your point of view up until the middle of this week. And Germany have certainly acted like complete chicken sh1t over the last 10 years setting up a trade deal with the Ukraine but now ducking for cover.

however that is all on the past now. Putin is the baddy and Zelensky is the goody. It’s black and white now.

Al R · Feb 26, 2022

Kevtherev said:
And he will news reports of no supplies getting through to his troops and trucks running out of fuel.
Same thing during the Ardennes offensive during the Second World War.
No fuel no advance logistics are key in any war.

Hitlers main downfall in WW2 was heading east, Stalin with his scorch Earth policy of burning all recourses for hundreds and hundreds of miles made sure the Germans starved and couldn’t find food on the way, supply chains went to thin, add that with a Ukrainian/Russian winter and the only way to get supplies in was by air, Soviet planes dominated the skies once they got going, Germany went in with 2500 planes, by 1944 Soviet forces had over 40,000 planes coming off the production line every year!
Air supremacy and re supply logistics is key

JohnGalway · Feb 26, 2022

ollie989898 said:
None of their equipment or personnel look anything like first rate to me.

If the Ukrainians can capitalise on this kind of thing and actually win, without direct intervention from the West, it will be a massive military and intelligence win.

My prediction, unfortunately, is, Ukr mil vs Rus mil, Rus wins. Unless there is outside intervention, and unless Putin brings that upon himself I cannot see it.

The next day or three will be a lot worse.

However, Ukr can still win the long war, but it will be a guerrilla war.

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

JohnGalway said:
My prediction, unfortunately, is, Ukr mil vs Rus mil, Rus wins. Unless there is outside intervention, and unless Putin brings that upon himself I cannot see it.

However, Ukr can still win the long war, but it will be a guerrilla war.

His troops are stopping at the road side having outrun their logistics tail. It's fudging cold and there isn't exactly going to be a crop of potatoes to dig up as you pass by this time of year. My guess is that the longer this goes on the less morale the Russian troops will have. A lot of them might well give up and go home or just fudge off.

JohnGalway · Feb 26, 2022

ollie989898 said:
His troops are stopping at the road side having outrun their logistics tail. It's fudging cold and there isn't exactly going to be a crop of potatoes to dig up as you pass by this time of year. My guess is that the longer this goes on the less morale the Russian troops will have. A lot of them might well give up and go home or just fudge off.

It'll be temporary, they will get their act together. Wait until they unleash their artillery and rockets as their doctrine commands.

JohnGalway · Feb 26, 2022

In other news, what more do you require to know about who the bad guys are?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497562345819627522

Crofter64 · Feb 26, 2022

ollie989898 said:
I don't quite see any comparison with WW1.

The similarity is what happens when a local dispute spreads out and involves serious players. Then everyone suffers instead of the unfortunate few.
Moral indignation is fine till your sons go off to war in another country and don’t come home.

BrianV · Feb 26, 2022

Bald Rick said:
You will enjoy the film Rhino about to be released on Netflix
All about gangsters in Ukraine in 90s starring a real thug.
Won quite a few awards already

Took the wife to see The Duke this afternoon with Jim Broadbent in it, if you never ever go to the flicks again this one is definitely worth the journey, brilliant.

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

JohnGalway said:
It'll be temporary, they will get their act together. Wait until they unleash their artillery and rockets as their doctrine commands.

They have already been firing rockets and artillery. These too, have a logistics tail.

JohnGalway · Feb 26, 2022

ollie989898 said:
They have already been firing rockets and artillery. These too, have a logistics tail.

They have not yet committed the bulk of their forces. They have also, allegedly changed their military commander.

will l · Feb 26, 2022

JohnGalway said:
They have not yet committed the bulk of their forces. They have also, allegedly changed their military commander.

It is common practice for russian soldiers on exercise to sell fuel for vodka

will l · Feb 26, 2022

will l said:
It is common practice for russian soldiers on exercise to sell fuel for vodka

Vodka laced with novachok now there is a plan!

muleman · Feb 26, 2022

Werzle said:
Hardly any footage of the fighting going on which is strange in a era of video phones and drones etc. Not like the iraq invasion which beamed back the shock and awe footage . I thought there might be more fighter jets bombing each other, ukraine doesnt seem to be going all out to fight off the russian invasion. Russia will have taken over in a day or two at this rate

Maybe its all a bit of a con like the covid job, you hardly know whether to believe what the news stations are telling you nowadays, they will just be feeding us what they want us to know that is for sure.

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

Crofter64 said:
The similarity is what happens when a local dispute spreads out and involves serious players. Then everyone suffers instead of the unfortunate few.
Moral indignation is fine till your sons go off to war in another country and don’t come home.

If other countries want to get involved, that is up to them. I am sure all the people who did go would be volunteers anyway. I would not be surprised in the slightest if there is more solidarity amongst former USSR countries than we realise as I can't think for one minute they have much fondness for returning to Russian rule.

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

JohnGalway said:
In other news, what more do you require to know about who the bad guys are?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497562345819627522

That is a great sight for your public to be reassured by. Signed up members of your own military being arrested on the street by a gang of Ninjas whose clothes seem to have come from an end of aisle bin in Walmart.

Russian government is a joke.

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

will l said:
Vodka laced with novachok now there is a plan!

Having drunk a fair share of real-deal Eastern European vodka I don't think the addition of a nerve agent is even necessary and would only dilute it's potency.

JohnGalway · Feb 26, 2022

Werzle said:
Hardly any footage of the fighting going on which is strange in a era of video phones and drones etc. Not like the iraq invasion which beamed back the shock and awe footage . I thought there might be more fighter jets bombing each other, ukraine doesnt seem to be going all out to fight off the russian invasion. Russia will have taken over in a day or two at this rate

The reason for that is, it's very possible to precisely locate positions of Ukrainian military from photos and videos. There has been a concerted effort to stop people doing just just, for that reason. I only seen it broken once when a guy in one of the Black Sea towns posted a pic of a tank at a junction in the town, he was jumped on and the pic was removed in minutes.

If you check out Open source intelligence accounts on Twitter it's quite incredible how accurately people can geolocate Russian assets just from photos. It's also why I tongue in cheek suggested we should crowd fund free sim cards for Russian soldiers.

Loose lips sink dictators.

robs1 · Feb 26, 2022

Crofter64 said:
The similarity is what happens when a local dispute spreads out and involves serious players. Then everyone suffers instead of the unfortunate few.
Moral indignation is fine till your sons go off to war in another country and don’t come home.

If you look through history it's as plain as day the longer people take the attitude you seem to support ie it's not our fight our problem or our responsibility the worse it turns out. No one wants people to die but putin will have to be stopped, today next week or next year, burying our heads in the sand doesnt alter that fact

ollie989898 · Feb 26, 2022

JohnGalway said:
The reason for that is, it's very possible to precisely locate positions of Ukrainian military from photos and videos. There has been a concerted effort to stop people doing just just, for that reason. I only seen it broken once when a guy in one of the Black Sea towns posted a pic of a tank at a junction in the town, he was jumped on and the pic was removed in minutes.

If you check out Open source intelligence accounts on Twitter it's quite incredible how accurately people can geolocate Russian assets just from photos. It's also why I tongue in cheek suggested we should crowd fund free sim cards for Russian soldiers.

Loose lips sink dictators.

It is possible the Russians have bombed the Ukrainian cell phone network or the Ukrainians have turned them off and shut down their telephone network. I would imagine the Russians may have hit TV/news stations and possibly even power stations so there could be a power blackout.

spin cycle · Feb 26, 2022

Nitrams said:
Underestimate the enemy at your own peril. This is not spur of the moment from Putin! It will be planned against several outcomes. Imo there is much more to come.

you might be right....just seen a report that russia arn't going full tilt :scratchhead:

then again in the cold war it was said that the red army could be at the channel in 72 hours.....when the ussr fell it emerged a lot of their armoured vehicles didn't work and crews were getting drunk on brake fluid

Will Putin invade ?

Will Putin invade the Ukraine ?

Yes

No

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

0 %

Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

Share this page